The latest invectives and insults by US President Donald Trump against Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy indicate slacking support for our country from its largest ally. It seems that Trump has set the goal of forcing not the aggressor country, Russia, but Ukraine into peace, and this is really bad news.
However, even in this dire situation, military aid to Ukraine will go on, although not in the same volumes as before. Also worth noting, military enterprises in Europe, having seen large investments, will work at their full capacity, which will help boost European aid. However, not only Ukraine's partners but also Ukrainians themselves must leave their comfort zone.
This opinion was expressed in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA by the Razumkov Centre military programmes director, military expert Mykola Sunhurovskyi.
— After Trump’s statements, his accusations of President Zelenskyy and Ukraine in general, it is probably worth expecting that US military aid to our country will cease completely. How do you think this can affect our situation, the prospects of this war? Will Europe be able to boost its defence capabilities and will it be ready to significantly step up aid to Ukraine?
— I would not say that aid from the US will completely cease. Currently, the Lend-Lease law is being discussed in Congress. Some aid will come. But we need to keep our finger on the pulse of these developments in order to adjust our policy in a timely manner. We need to assess our needs, distribute them by time and sources, in other words, diversify our assistance opportunities.
Indeed, the conditions are worsening. Most likely, Trump decided to force Ukraine, not Russia, into this deal. But there is nothing you can do about it — we should have acted earlier.
— What do you mean?
— It was necessary to spread information about the US support, the sums they allocate, about our ratings. This should have already been present in the minds not only of Trump, but also of the wider audience, not to be questioned. And now, we see that Trump relies on Russian sources that are put in his ears and starts transmitting them. This is not good at all.
— Do you think that this situation has arisen because Ukraine has not done enough in the media space?
— The fact that it has not done enough is not new to us. But no one is perfect. Someone is always doing something wrong somewhere. And the fact that Trump is trying to shift the blame to Ukraine — what can you do about it? He does not want to see Russia as an aggressor. He has not become stronger than his friend Vladimir, it’s Trump's personal failure. This just should be taken into account.
— Do you expect that at some point, Ukraine may be forced, for reasons beyond its control, to accept unfavourable conditions for itself in the so-called peace deal?
— In order to escape this, we need to draw red lines in advance, beyond which we will not go under any circumstances. Yes, I believe that we will have to give up something, because not only we but also our allies in Europe will not have enough forces to do all that we tried to do at the beginning of the war — to return all the occupied territories.
If the status of the occupied territories is to be decided through negotiations, I do not believe in it, because the last stage of negotiations on disputed territories, according to the standard procedure, is a referendum to determine the possession of such pseudo-state entities.
Under Russian control, the demographic situation there will be changed completely, the work of observation missions will also be difficult under Russian control. Hence, I have no optimistic expectations from such a process. With a probability of 99%, I may predict that these territories will remain part of Russia. I have very bad premonitions here.
— But we see that Europe has recently become more active, primarily against the background of Trump’s actions and statements. For example, the day after the Munich Conference, an emergency summit was convened in France. Do you think that Europe has the potential to change the situation in our favour?
— It has the potential, but the political will to use this potential largely depends on the electoral sentiments. As a politician, I can declare something, but in four years I will no longer be in this position, because voters will vote for other political forces. That is why the political leadership in many countries is so cautious.
You say that Europe has woken up — yes, it has. But before demanding anything from Europeans, Ukrainians should ask themselves if they are ready to leave their comfort zone, because millions of Ukrainians also do not want to leave their comfort zone — we see them in entertainment centres, restaurants, etc. For some reason, such places are not empty.
— And those Ukrainians who do not want to defend the country.
— Yes, draft dodgers first of all.
Indeed, there are signs of Europe taking a more active posture, and I hope that arms companies will become more active, because since the beginning of the war they have seen large investments, but they do not work immediately, it takes time to deploy technological lines, etc. Now, all this is finally starting to work. I expect that with time, they will reach full capacity. And here, we should also note that our defence enterprises, mostly private, also ramp up production. Unfortunately, some enterprises have no contracts with the state. This is not good.
