Let me briefly remind you about the course of events. On May 21, it was reported that Putin had visited the Kursk region, where he held a number of events and meetings. The first report that Putin's helicopter was allegedly attacked by Ukrainian drones, kind of planning to kill Putin, appeared only on the 25th. Then, the air defence division commander Yuri Dashkin appeared on the air of the Rossiya TV channel and read from a sheet of paper that the attack was “unprecedented” and Putin found himself “actually in the epicentre of repelling a massive strike.” Meanwhile, all 46 drones were destroyed, the Russian commander assured, giving details: “We simultaneously conducted an air defence battle and ensured the safety of the President’s helicopter flight.”
For an expert who at least occasionally dealt with escorting a special flight – that is, an aircraft with a VIP from among the state's top leadership, not necessarily the president on board in the air – everything is clear. In this case, the airspace is closed for dozens of kilometres. The so-called "Carpet" plan is enacted. Any possibility of a civilian or military aircraft being nearby, except for escort, is ruled out. Such a special flight simply flies in the clear, free sky.
This is simply absurd – to assume that the Russian military could have allowed such an incident, with Ukrainian drones approaching Putin’s helicopter. And considering the speed of the drone, which is approximately 200 kilometres per hour, even if these drones had appeared, there would have been at least several hours to react and repel them. So, this story is completely fabricated. It is also absolutely obvious that if Putin's aircraft even were there, Putin definitely could not have been anywhere near.
One may ask, why did the Russians invent such a story?
Now, if we try to connect the dots, a very sad conclusion comes to mind. It coincided with a series of massive strikes on Ukraine, including on Kyiv, with enormous destructions and human casualties. One may also recall the narratives that were spread in Russia. These strikes, symmetrical or asymmetrical, were allegedly delivered in response to something that Ukraine had done. So, it was presented as if “Russia was provoked,” “Russia was forced” or could not help but respond. So it was kind of a punishment, retaliation for some actions of Ukraine.
If we talk about the attacks of the Ukrainian military on Russian territory these days, they were massive indeed, but there were no casualties among the civilian population, or even any noticeably damage to the civilian infrastructure. But the Russians had to strike back in response to something very serious and threatening for Russia. I wouldn't rule out that an even larger strike was prepared – because if the Russians really wanted to show that there was an attempt on Putin, then, say, at least another Oreshnik could be understood even by Trump, since killing Putin, according to the Russian nuclear doctrine, is a threat to the existence of the Russian state proper. So perhaps the Russians have realized that this version was not convincing – the consequences might have been even more catastrophic.
At the same time, if they tried it once and failed, this does not mean that it cannot be repeated in the future. Will they not try to repeat it in a more sophisticated way?
What was the purpose of these massive strikes, especially when on Kyiv? Well, it may sound cynical but as we look at how Odesa or Kharkiv suffer from bombardments, a strike on Kyiv still arouses more interest in the world media and more concern among our Western partners than daily strikes on other cities, because it has a huge media and psychological effect, when the capital of the state comes under such an attack.
This is absolutely directly related to the peace process. And what is Putin trying to say to the Ukrainians, to the Europeans? – The longer you disagree or reject our ultimatums, the worse it will be for Ukraine. And to show such excessive cruelty.
As we can see, Putin is getting away with it. Trump made a statement that Putin is “crazy,” but there are no real actions behind it yet. Putin already got used to this, he is sure that Trump will do nothing (I want to be mistaken here). He is showing to the Ukrainians and Europeans that they should agree to his terms now.
This was directly said by Vladimir Medinsky in Istanbul: If you don't want to give up four regions, tomorrow there will be six, the day after tomorrow there will be eight. All this fits into the Russian tactics or strategy of a victory in this war.
Some time ago, when Russia's war in Ukraine was still considered unthinkable to many, an article by one of the Russian ideologists was published in the Russkii zhurnal, titled "Operation Clockwork Orange." In that story, at the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war, they made a nuclear explosion at night over the Chornobyl area, when Ukraine and part of Europe could see the flash – for no one to have doubts about the Russian Federation's resolve. In that case, everyone immediately agreed that there was no sense fighting Russia any longer, or it was too dangerous. That is why Russians also like to recall the US use of nuclear weapons, as the turning point that forced Japan to surrender.
That is, the Russians have been seriously pursuing this idea for a long time, and have not abandoned it. They have already tried this once with Oreshnik – they attacked Dnipro, but it did not work. Still, they may try to repeat it again. And there is a danger that at some point Putin may think that he can do it with impunity
The use of tactical nuclear weapons is militarily senseless, because they were created to destroy large military formations. But if Putin suggests that he will face no consequences from China or the United States, and he will have the effect of using them to force Ukraine to surrender, then he may resort to this.
And finally, I don't want to scare you, but after Trump called Putin crazy, a post by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared in social media: “I wish I could share more, but for now I can say it’s pretty obvious to many that something is off with #Putin. He has always been a killer, but his problem now is different & significant”. In my opinion, it is unlikely that Rubio meant his health problems. Perhaps the US Secretary of State had in mind this yet unrealized plan to attack Ukraine.
So now, in fact, not only Ukraine but the whole world seems to be held hostage by one mentally ill person, and, unfortunately, almost 9 billion people cannot cope with this.
