The talks between the US and Russian leadership have not actually changed their policies towards Ukraine. The worst case scenario, according to the Razumkov Centre expert Oleksiy Melnyk, is if Ukraine agrees to Russia's conditions, which will lead to the collapse of the international security system and the threat of internal destabilization. He said this in his comments on Radio Charter.
According to him, despite the meetings in Moscow and Miami, the Trump administration's policy remains the same as before – pressure on Ukraine, isolation of Europe from the negotiations and an attempt to meet Russian interests as much as possible.
"The track remains the same – pressure, maximum pressure on Ukraine, isolation of Europe from this process and an attempt to reach a deal with Russia. Or, rather, to satisfy Russia’s demands as much as possible,” – Melnyk noted.
The expert emphasizes: the main motive of Trump and his team is money. “They are interested in money. They simply do not understand how an attempt to make money on Russia can turn into colossal losses for them,” he says.
Worst-case scenario for Ukraine
Melnyk names the key threat: Ukraine may come under pressure and agree to an imposed scenario.
“The worst-case scenario is if Ukraine agrees and signs it,” the expert emphasizes.
According to him, the consequences will be catastrophic: “Russia as an aggressor gets the maximum of what they want, that is, aggression is rewarded at the international level. A complete collapse of the architecture of international security. A signal that it is possible to attack weaker neighbours, change borders and demand surrender of territories. This is chaos, a jungle.”
For Ukraine itself, the risks are also enormous:
“This is a threat of internal destabilization. What will be the reaction of society and veterans if Ukraine signs up to hand over territories with people?”
The second scenario is to mark time
Melnyk believes that the other option is also unfavourable, but still less dangerous:
“The second option is to resist the ultimatum that Moscow and Washington are currently voicing to the last, and use this time to adapt to the new conditions, even if the US reduces or stops its support.”
He emphasized that Ukraine’s main focus should be internal – strengthening resilience.
On the role of China
According to the expert, China remains a detached player that is not going to change its approach to the war.
“China is talking about the “Ukrainian crisis,” not about Russian aggression. I have not seen any signs that Beijing is ready to change its rhetoric or influence Russia,” says Melnyk.
Anton Alokhinsson
Source:
