The Initial Market Reaction To Russia and Hamas’ Aggression
This publication was conducted by Razumkov Centre as part of its project implemented under the USAID/ENGAGE activity, which is funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and implemented by Pact. The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of Pact and its implementing partners and do not necessary reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.
Ukraine’s struggle against russian aggression, which has had, is having and will have a significant impact on the geopolitical and geo-economic map of the world, has already pinpointed the contradictory risks and challenges of modern confrontation between democratic and autocratic societies, and demonstrated the high interdependence of events and processes even in the most remote countries.
Savings and the risks of debt crises
Ukraine will enter the post-war recovery extremely weakened economically requiring significant assistance and support from partner countries to implement a prudent economic policy for accelerated growth. Of course, such growth is only possible if the world’s largest economies, on whose support Ukraine relies, are in good financial health.
Since global economic processes are increasingly determined by the economic dynamics and interactions between the two giants, the United States and China, the problems associated with the high debt burden of these largest economies could quickly affect the global debt environment, and thus cause significant default risks for many emerging economies, which would certainly slow down their socio-economic development.
Obviously, the scenario of a global debt crisis is highly unacceptable for Ukraine, as it will require support from the global financial community for many years to come. In the meantime, only structural changes in the domestic economy can generate the resources that will allow the country to lay the foundation for socio-economic development, and it is the growth of value added at a faster rate than inflation that will create the conditions for maintaining the current level of welfare and increasing domestic savings, thus reducing debt pressure.
As the victory approaches, more and more “friends” will recommend Ukraine rapid recovery scenarios. However, the country should not be tempted by the compromise solutions of those “peacekeeping” countries that directly or indirectly maintain extensive contacts with the aggressor or implement policies that contradict Ukraine’s national interests, or, in the settings of the global community’s polarisation, disregard the geopolitical and geo-economic interests of Ukraine’s strategic partners.
The full text of analytical report in Ukrainian is available HERE
War of Attrition: Comparing Capabilities
This publication has been made within the framework of the MATRA Programme supported by the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in Ukraine. The opinions expressed are those of the authors only and should not be considered as representative of the Embassy’s official position.
Mykola SUNGUROVSKYI, Director, Military Programmes of the Razumkov Centre
Oleksiy MELNYK, Co-Director, Foreign Relations and International Security Programmes of the Razumkov Centre
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has approached yet another critical phase that could become a turning point in the war, or at least determine the further course of events more clearly. It is needles to repeat about the global significance of the issues that Ukrainian defenders are addressing now. Ukraine’s military success will not only determine the fate of our country, but also shape the prospects for security and stability around the world.
Ensuring the Irreversibility Of Ukraine’s European And Euro-Atlantic Course
This publication was presented by the Razumkov Centre as part of the Pact’s ENGAGE (Enhance Non-Governmental Actors and Grassroots Engagement) program in Ukraine funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID).
The contents of this analytical report are the sole responsibility of Pact and its partners and do not necessary reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.
June 25, 2023 marked a year since Ukraine was granted the candidate status for membership in the European Union, by virtue whereof the European Commission has issued an oral update on Ukraine’s progress in fulfilling conditions to launch EU membership talks. According to European colleagues, Ukraine has fully met two out of seven criteria and has made significant «progress»ь in implementing the other five «recommendations», formulated along with Ukraine getting the EU candidate status.
Economic Reasons of the Return
This publication has been made within the framework of the MATRA Programme supported by the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in Ukraine. The authors’ assessments and conclusions should not be considered as representative of the Embassy’s official position.
As has been repeatedly emphasised, human capital is the most important factor in ensuring the country’s socio-economic development, improving competitiveness of the national economy, and providing for decent well-being of households.1 A necessary prerequisite for the country’s development is, of course, the formation of a strong economic potential and its translation into real growth, which, among other things, should be based on minimising unemployment and directing society towards full employment.
Global Energy Markey Outlook in 2022
This publication has been made within the framework of the MATRA Programme supported by the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in Ukraine. The opinions expressed are those of the authors only and should not be considered as representative of the Embassy’s official position.
Analysing the situation on global energy markets in 2022, this year can be described as the most difficult for energy consumers since the major oil crisis of 1973 caused by the escalation of the Arab-Israeli conflict.
The main reason for skyrocketing energy prices in Europe in 2022 was Russia’s use of energy weapons against the EU by limiting supply of natural gas via Gazprom’s breach of contractual obligations and abuse of European gas storage facilities.
State of Ukraine’s Economy And Prospects For Its Recovery in 2023
This publication has been made within the framework of the MATRA Programme supported by the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in Ukraine. The opinions expressed are those of the authors only and should not be considered as representative of the Embassy’s official position.
Ukraine is undergoing a deep social and economic crisis provoked by Russian aggression. At the same time, Ukraine’s struggle for freedom and independence has improved awareness of its civilizational choice, becoming an additional incentive for the democratisation and economic transformation.
Ukraine’s Foreign Policy In Times of War: Features and Priorities
This publication has been made within the framework of the MATRA Programme supported by the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in Ukraine. The opinions expressed are those of the authors only and should not be considered as representative of the Embassy’s official position.
Russia’s large-scale war against Ukraine, while provoking a dangerous confrontation between the world’s centres of influence, changed the content and specifics of the activities of the Ukrainian state and society in general and its foreign policy in particular. During the war, and especially amidst large-scale intervention, the nature, means and priorities of Ukrainian diplomacy were transformed. This is a unique experience in the global arena that deserves attention. Some of the peculiarities and features of Kyiv’s foreign policy during the war are outlined in this publication.
Migration Patterns And Impacts: Lessons for Ukraine
This publication has been made within the framework of the MATRA Programme supported by the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in Ukraine. The opinions expressed are those of the authors only and should not be considered as representative of the Embassy’s official position.
Ukraine’s socio-economic after the war recovery should become an absolute priority of state policy and include a number of complex tasks of overcoming catastrophic humanitarian shocks; ensuring accelerated restoration of normal functioning and development of domestic institutions, sectors of the economy and markets; rebuilding housing, transport and social infrastructure; ensuring the development of human potential; and encouraging the growth of positive expectations in Ukrainian society. At the same time, interaction with global actors should be central, in particular, in achieving the social goals set out in the current EU-Ukraine Association Agreement and the tasks associated with Ukraine’s EU candidate status obtained in June 2022.
Asserting Economic Freedom In Ukraine (Analytical Report, April 2023)
This publication has been made within the framework of the MATRA Programme supported by the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in Ukraine. The authors’ assessments and conclusions should not be considered as representative of the Embassy’s official position.
See the full report in Ukrainian at https://razumkov.org.ua/images/2023/04/07/2023-MATRA-I-KVARTAL.pdf
This publication was produced by the Razumkov Centre with the support of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom (FNF), Project Office Ukraine. The views expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect the views of the FNF.
How the World Enters 2023: Economic Prospects For Ukraine’s Recovery
This publication has been made within the framework of the MATRA Programme supported by the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in Ukraine. The opinions expressed are those of the authors only and should not be considered as representative of the Embassy’s official position.
Ukraine’s Recovery: Starting Point And Directions Of Government Action
This publication has been made within the frameworks of the MATRA Programme supported by the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in Ukraine. The opinions expressed are those of the author(s) only and should not be considered as representative of the Embassy’s official position.
UKRAINE’S RECOVERY: STARTING POINT AND DIRECTIONS OF GOVERNMENT ACTION
Presented at the Round Table «How the world enters 2023: Economic prospects for Ukraine’s recovery» Razumkov Centre, Kyiv, January 2023
RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN WAR: DEVELOPMENTS AND PROSPECTS
The analytical report covers the period from September 2022 to January 2023 and carries summarised assessments of the situation and conclusions from that period.
With its aggression upon Ukraine and ultimatum-like demands on NATO and the West in general, Russia has once again demonstrated its historic aggressiveness against the USA, Europe, and democracy as such. It views the export of corruption, selective granting of temporary preferences on its market, enhancement of the dependence of the European countries on Russian resources, strong anti-Western propaganda as mechanisms of weakening and splitting the Western unity.
UKRAINE: FROM COUNTERING AGGRESSION TO RECOVERY AND DEVELOPMENT
Prof. Dr. Vasyl YURCHYSHYN,the Director of Economic and Social Programs, Razumkov Centre
UKRAINIAN REFUGEES AT THE BORDER: the first experience of communication (March-May, 2022)
Danylo DOBROVOLSKYI - Sociology Field Coordinator
Mykhailo MISHCHENKO - Deputy Director, Sociological Service
OLGA PYSHCHULINA - Leading Expert, Social and Gender Programmes