Analytical reports and articles, policy papers

Ukraine’s Foreign Policy In the Context Of Geopolitical Processes

Ukrainian diplomacy operates against the backdrop and under the influence of external events and fast-paced global and regional processes that present both opportunities and challenges for our country. In particular, the world faces deepening polarisation, confrontations between global powers, explosive conflicts in various regions, internal political processes in the United States and the European Union, and so on. 

Despite these challenges, Ukrainian diplomacy has shown initiative and innovative approaches in promoting national interests, particularly during russian aggression. Significant achievements include the European Council’s decision in December 2023 to open Ukraine’s EU membership negotiations, the launch of long—term security cooperation agreements with allied countries, etc. At the same time, involvement in a long and exhausting confrontation with the aggressor accumulates «political and economic fatigue» from the Ukraine war, reshapes the geopolitical landscape, exacerbates old and creates new threats. 

Therefore, foreign policy must adapt to new geopolitical realities and crises, taking into account the positions and interests of allied countries. Therefore, it is crucial to analyse and forecast external trends and develop preventive countermeasures in various areas. 


Leadership Transformations In the Indo-Pacific

The beginning of 2024 was marked by the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, political passions in the USA, tension in Europe, economic difficulties in China, which noticeably weakened attention to events and processes in other parts of the world, including those lying at the intersection of the interests or influences of the world’s leading powers or institutions. However, changes in those regions in 2024 promise to be highly controversial and conflict-prone, fraught with global risks and challenges. 

Until now, it was clear to everyone that global events and processes were driven (directly or indirectly) by the US, China and their rivalry. Today, there is an impression that the situation in the world will take on significantly different features, and the year 2024 may turn out to be a year of losses and discord, even in those areas or spheres that seemed well-established and associated with democracy, economic development and human values. 


Germany on the Way To Regaining Its Leadership

Now, at the start of 2024, Ukraine faces new challenges related with the prospects of its successful fight with the Russian aggressor. On the one hand, thanks to the partner support of democratic countries, Ukraine has proven its civilizational capacity, established itself as a freedom-loving country, and should multiply efforts to build and strengthen a democratic society and join the European community.


Civil-Military Co-operation in Protection of Civilians During the Ukraine War

This publication by the Razumkov Centre presents the findings of a research project of the same name supported by the Hanns Seidel Stiftung in Ukraine. It provides an analysis of foreign practices in civil protection and civil-military co-operation with a focus on their relevance to Ukraine, presents a brief assessment of adequacy of Ukraine’s current capabilities in this area, and offers general recommendations for improvement. Additionally, it includes the results of a survey among representatives of local authorities and self-government bodies on the cooperation between the state and territorial communities in protecting the population in times of fighting. 

The publication is intended to benefit various audiences, including relevant state and local officials, academics, security experts at the state and local level, students, and individuals with an interest in these topics.

The views and opinions expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the the views positions or endorsement of the grantor.


Ideology Behind Restoration Of Economic Liberties

For humanity, the early 2020s were marked with the growth of risks and challenges, which can slow down the generally positive dynamics of global development in previous years.

This was not unexpected, since the period after the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009 brought signs of slowdown of global development, primarily due to the weakening of economic liberties — re-establishment of protectionist measures, cross-border barriers for the movement of goods, services, capital, people, which gave grounds to predict the emergence of a new global agenda: de-globalisation, increased isolation, and formation of new centres of political and economic gravity.


Attracting Fair Investment

This publication was conducted by Razumkov Centre as part of its project implemented under the USAID/ENGAGE activity, which is funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and implemented by Pact. The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of Pact and its implementing partners and do not necessary reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.

The global environment has become increasingly risky in recent years. The coronavirus crisis, russian aggression, Hamas attacks, migration waves, price shocks in the energy and agricultural markets, trade, fiscal and debt imbalances, and contradictory intentions and actions of major global actors have created complex chains of critical political and economic interdependence between countries, which increasingly hinders joint consolidating efforts and actions capable of ensuring sustainable socio-economic development of countries around the world.

It is undeniable that Ukraine, like any other country, desperately needs investment resources to accelerate its economic recovery. In the previous decades, the country failed to become attractive to investors, and even experienced a leaching of national capital (including human capital), which accelerated with the expansion of russian aggression. Therefore, when it comes to Ukraine’s post-war recovery, one needs to recognise that with no international investment, the task of building a new civilised country will be postponed for the unforeseeable future.

It should be stressed that foreign investment is no longer just an economic factor of development but is increasingly gaining security implications. Moreover, the country’s best defence against encroachments is the arrival of an international investor — the higher the volume of foreign investment, primarily from developed democracies, the more secure the country can feel against an uninvited imperial aggressor. Therefore, the attitude towards attracting foreign investment is increasingly subject to adjustment.


Vectors of Effective Support For Ukraine

This publication was conducted by Razumkov Centre as part of its project implemented under the USAID/ENGAGE activity, which is funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and implemented by Pact. The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of Pact and its implementing partners and do not necessary reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government. 

The last five years of global development have been increasingly marked by unparalleled global risks, challenges and even disastrous processes that, originating in individual countries or regions, quickly gain a threatening scale and impact, cause numerous human losses, and accelerate systemic changes in the socio-political and socio-economic environments of almost all countries. These challenges for humanity include the coronavirus crisis, large-scale russian aggression against Ukraine, and the war in the Middle East.

For Ukraine, the most significant threats and challenges are obviously related to its struggle for independence and freedom against russian imperialism. Partner assistance from the world’s leading democracies is undoubtedly a critical component of this struggle. Crises triggered by global challenges could not but have a negative impact even on strong and developed economies, causing problems in production and logistics chains, financial and currency markets, corporate and public budgets and debt balances. And today, Ukraine is clearly interested in the accelerated renewal of partner countries’ sustainable development, as this directly affects the scale of their continued security, economic and humanitarian support to a country that is courageously fighting for freedom and independence.


The Initial Market Reaction To Russia and Hamas’ Aggression

This publication was conducted by Razumkov Centre as part of its project implemented under the USAID/ENGAGE activity, which is funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and implemented by Pact. The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of Pact and its implementing partners and do not necessary reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.

Ukraine’s struggle against russian aggression, which has had, is having and will have a significant impact on the geopolitical and geo-economic map of the world, has already pinpointed the contradictory risks and challenges of modern confrontation between democratic and autocratic societies, and demonstrated the high interdependence of events and processes even in the most remote countries.


Savings and the risks of debt crises

Ukraine will enter the post-war recovery extremely weakened economically requiring significant assistance and support from partner countries to implement a prudent economic policy for accelerated growth. Of course, such growth is only possible if the world’s largest economies, on whose support Ukraine relies, are in good financial health.

Since global economic processes are increasingly determined by the economic dynamics and interactions between the two giants, the United States and China, the problems associated with the high debt burden of these largest economies could quickly affect the global debt environment, and thus cause significant default risks for many emerging economies, which would certainly slow down their socio-economic development. 

Obviously, the scenario of a global debt crisis is highly unacceptable for Ukraine, as it will require support from the global financial community for many years to come. In the meantime, only structural changes in the domestic economy can generate the resources that will allow the country to lay the foundation for socio-economic development, and it is the growth of value added at a faster rate than inflation that will create the conditions for maintaining the current level of welfare and increasing domestic savings, thus reducing debt pressure.

As the victory approaches, more and more “friends” will recommend Ukraine rapid recovery scenarios. However, the country should not be tempted by the compromise solutions of those “peacekeeping” countries that directly or indirectly maintain extensive contacts with the aggressor or implement policies that contradict Ukraine’s national interests, or, in the settings of the global community’s polarisation, disregard the geopolitical and geo-economic interests of Ukraine’s strategic partners.

 The full text of analytical report in Ukrainian is available HERE


War of Attrition: Comparing Capabilities

This publication has been made within the framework of the MATRA Programme supported by the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in Ukraine. The opinions expressed are those of the authors only and should not be considered as representative of the Embassy’s official position.

Mykola SUNGUROVSKYI, Director, Military Programmes of the Razumkov Centre

Oleksiy MELNYK, Co-Director, Foreign Relations and International Security Programmes of the Razumkov Centre

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has approached yet another critical phase that could become a turning point in the war, or at least determine the further course of events more clearly. It is needles to repeat about the global significance of the issues that Ukrainian defenders are addressing now. Ukraine’s military success will not only determine the fate of our country, but also shape the prospects for security and stability around the world.


Ensuring the Irreversibility Of Ukraine’s European And Euro-Atlantic Course

This publication was presented by the Razumkov Centre as part of the Pact’s ENGAGE (Enhance Non-Governmental Actors and Grassroots Engagement) program in Ukraine funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID).

The contents of this analytical report are the sole responsibility of Pact and its partners  and do not necessary reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.

June 25, 2023 marked a year since Ukraine was granted the candidate status for membership in the European Union, by virtue whereof the European Commission has issued an oral update on Ukraine’s progress in fulfilling conditions to launch EU membership talks. According to European colleagues, Ukraine has fully met two out of seven criteria and has made significant «progress»ь in implementing the other five «recommendations», formulated along with Ukraine getting the EU candidate status.


Economic Reasons of the Return

This publication has been made within the framework of the MATRA Programme supported by the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in Ukraine. The authors’ assessments and conclusions should not be considered as representative of the Embassy’s official position.

As has been repeatedly emphasised, human capital is the most important factor in ensuring the country’s socio-economic development, improving competitiveness of the national economy, and providing for decent well-being of households.1 A necessary prerequisite for the country’s development is, of course, the formation of a strong economic potential and its translation into real growth, which, among other things, should be based on minimising unemployment and directing society towards full employment.


Global Energy Markey Outlook in 2022

This publication has been made within the framework of the MATRA Programme supported by the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in Ukraine. The opinions expressed are those of the authors only and should not be considered as representative of the Embassy’s official position.

Analysing the situation on global energy markets in 2022, this year can be described as the most difficult for energy consumers since the major oil crisis of 1973 caused by the escalation of the Arab-Israeli conflict.
The main reason for skyrocketing energy prices in Europe in 2022 was Russia’s use of energy weapons against the EU by limiting supply of natural gas via Gazprom’s breach of contractual obligations and abuse of European gas storage facilities.


State of Ukraine’s Economy And Prospects For Its Recovery in 2023

This publication has been made within the framework of the MATRA Programme supported by the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in Ukraine. The opinions expressed are those of the authors only and should not be considered as representative of the Embassy’s official position.

Ukraine is undergoing a deep social and economic crisis provoked by Russian aggression. At the same time, Ukraine’s struggle for freedom and independence has improved awareness of its civilizational choice, becoming an additional incentive for the democratisation and economic transformation.


Ukraine’s Foreign Policy In Times of War: Features and Priorities

This publication has been made within the framework of the MATRA Programme supported by the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in Ukraine. The opinions expressed are those of the authors only and should not be considered as representative of the Embassy’s official position.

Russia’s large-scale war against Ukraine, while provoking a dangerous confrontation between the world’s centres of influence, changed the content and specifics of the activities of the Ukrainian state and society in general and its foreign policy in particular. During the war, and especially amidst large-scale intervention, the nature, means and priorities of Ukrainian diplomacy were transformed. This is a unique experience in the global arena that deserves attention. Some of the peculiarities and features of Kyiv’s foreign policy during the war are outlined in this publication.


Migration Patterns And Impacts: Lessons for Ukraine

This publication has been made within the framework of the MATRA Programme supported by the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in Ukraine. The opinions expressed are those of the authors only and should not be considered as representative of the Embassy’s official position.

Ukraine’s socio-economic after the war recovery should become an absolute priority of state policy and include a number of complex tasks of overcoming catastrophic humanitarian shocks; ensuring accelerated restoration of normal functioning and development of domestic institutions, sectors of the economy and markets; rebuilding housing, transport and social infrastructure; ensuring the development of human potential; and encouraging the growth of positive expectations in Ukrainian society. At the same time, interaction with global actors should be central, in particular, in achieving the social goals set out in the current EU-Ukraine Association Agreement and the tasks associated with Ukraine’s EU candidate status obtained in June 2022.


Asserting Economic Freedom In Ukraine (Analytical Report, April 2023)

This publication has been made within the framework of the MATRA Programme supported by the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in Ukraine. The authors’ assessments and conclusions should not be considered as representative of the Embassy’s official position.

See the full report in Ukrainian at https://razumkov.org.ua/images/2023/04/07/2023-MATRA-I-KVARTAL.pdf


Political, Economic, and Structural Consequences Of Russian Aggression for Ukraine and the International Community. Challenges of Ukraine’s Economic Recovery in the Post-war Period in View Of European Integration Priorities

This publication was produced by the Razumkov Centre with the support of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom (FNF), Project Office Ukraine. The views expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect the views of the FNF.


How the World Enters 2023: Economic Prospects For Ukraine’s Recovery

This publication has been made within the framework of the MATRA Programme supported by the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in Ukraine. The opinions expressed are those of the authors only and should not be considered as representative of the Embassy’s official position.


Ukraine’s Recovery: Starting Point And Directions Of Government Action

This publication has been made within the frameworks of the MATRA Programme supported by the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in Ukraine. The opinions expressed are those of the author(s) only and should not be considered as representative of the Embassy’s official position.

UKRAINE’S RECOVERY: STARTING POINT AND DIRECTIONS OF GOVERNMENT ACTION

Presented at the Round Table «How the world enters 2023: Economic prospects for Ukraine’s recovery» Razumkov Centre, Kyiv, January 2023


RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN WAR: DEVELOPMENTS AND PROSPECTS

The analytical report covers the period from September 2022 to January 2023 and carries summarised assessments of the situation and conclusions from that period.

With its aggression upon Ukraine and ultimatum-like demands on NATO and the West in general, Russia has once again demonstrated its historic aggressiveness against the USA, Europe, and democracy as such. It views the export of corruption, selective granting of temporary preferences on its market, enhancement of the dependence of the European countries on Russian resources, strong anti-Western propaganda as mechanisms of weakening and splitting the Western unity.


UKRAINE: FROM COUNTERING AGGRESSION TO RECOVERY AND DEVELOPMENT

 Prof. Dr. Vasyl YURCHYSHYN,the Director of Economic and Social Programs, Razumkov Centre


UKRAINIAN REFUGEES AT THE BORDER: the first experience of communication (March-May, 2022)

Danylo DOBROVOLSKYI - Sociology Field Coordinator

Mykhailo MISHCHENKO - Deputy Director, Sociological Service

OLGA PYSHCHULINA - Leading Expert, Social and Gender Programmes