Pessimistic and optimistic forecasts. How long will the war last?

September 17, 2022

This first Ukrainian breakthrough towards Kharkiv can actually create such a panic that all the other defence lines will simply collapse

Ukrainian troops created this chance very skilfully. The counteroffensive was prepared in the hard months when we sustained heavy losses, but at the same time, the required ratio of the friendly and foe military potential was created. After all, due to the procurement and skilful use of long-range tube and rocket artillery systems, we saw the destruction of the Russian logistics, command, control and communication systems, which has made it difficult for the Russians to deploy and manoeuvre their reserves. As a result, we see the retreat of their troops. It is difficult to term what is happening in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions and even in the Crimea an organised retreat. They just take to flight.

In addition, due to our capabilities, the enemy's air defence and intelligence systems were successfully impaired, and thanks to our UAVs, air, ground and now also space intelligence, we got an opportunity to monitor all movements and processes taking place both in the occupied territory of Ukraine and in Russia proper. Sanctions also had a strong impact on Russia, its economy, ability to replenish the reserves, and on the morale of their troops. Roughly speaking, the Russian potential is severely depleted both in terms of strength of the personnel and equipment, and their moral qualities.



Mykola Sunhurovskyi

Director, Military Programmes

Born in 1951 in Moscow.


Orenburg Higher Military Air Defence Forces School (1972);

Kyiv Air Defence Forces Academy (1982);

Higher School of Entrepreneurship, Kyiv Institute of National Economy (1991).

Ph. D. in Technical Sciences, Senior Research Fellow, the author of more than 90 publications.

Colonel (Ret.) with 31 years of military service, half of that term — at research institutions. Research profile — systems analysis, strategic planning, analysis methods, national security.


Most recent position in state bodies — Department Chief at the Analytical Service of Ukraine's NSDC Staff;

Since December 1999 — Razumkov Centre Programme Co-ordinator;

Since February 2000 — Freelance Consultant to the National Security and Defence Committee of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine.

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