"Red Lines for Ukraine": Public Opinion and National Convictions (April–May 2025)

May 13, 2025

Results of a public opinion poll conducted by the Razumkov Centre Sociological Service jointly with the Kyiv Security Forum from April 24 to May 4, 2025.

The face-to-face poll was conducted in Vinnytsia, Volyn, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zhytomyr, Transcarpathian, Zaporizhia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Mykolayiv, Odesa, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Kharkiv, Kherson, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Chernivtsi regions and the city of Kyiv (in Zaporizhia, Donetsk, Mykolayiv, Kharkiv, Kherson regions — only in the territories controlled by the government of Ukraine and free of hostilities).

The poll was conducted using a stratified multi-stage sample with random selection at the first stages of sampling and quota selection of respondents at the final stage (when respondents were selected on the basis of gender and age quotas). The sample structure reflects the demographic structure of the adult population of the territories where the poll was conducted as of the beginning of 2022 (by age, sex, settlement type).

2,021 respondents aged 18 and over were polled. The sample theoretical error does not exceed 2.3%. However, additional systemic deviations of the sample may be caused by the consequences of Russian aggression, in particular, forced evacuation of millions of citizens.


Generally speaking, do you think that events in Ukraine are developing in the right or wrong direction?

In the right direction 32.1
In a wrong direction 47.2
Hard to say 20.7


Please rate your current state on a 10-point scale, where "0" means the maximum level of calm, confidence, and "10" — the maximum level of panic, fear, uncertainty

Maximum calm, confidence Maximum panic, fear, uncertainty Hard to say
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1.1 1.9 3.9 7.1 10.0 18.5 14.6 17.3 11.8 5.9 6.0 1.7

Average score — 5.91


How would you describe your mood last month?
ONE ANSWER

I almost always feel bad, depresses 9,3
I often feel bad, not always though 29,7
I can hardly say which mood I feel more often 36,5
I am more often in a good, upbeat mood 18,6
I almost always feel good 3,5
Hard to say 2,4


What religion do you identify yourself with?

Orthodox 59.9
Roman Catholic 1.3
Greek Catholic 9.7
Protestant and Evangelic Churches 2.2
Judaism 0.1
Islam 0.2
Buddhism 0.0
Hinduism 0.0
Paganism 0.2
Just Christian 13.2
Other 1.2
I do not identify myself with any religious confession 11.8
No answer 0.2


Which exactly Orthodox Church do you identify yourself with?

% of all % of the Orthodox
Orthodox Church of Ukraine (Metropolitan Epiphanius) 38.9 64.8
Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchate) (Metropolitan Onufry) 6.8 11.4
Another Orthodox church 0.6 1.0
Just Orthodox 13.1 21.9
No idea 0.5 0.9
No answer 40.0 0.0


What is your attitude to hypothetical public campaigns of assistance or support to each of the following groups …? (Please rate your attitude on a scale from 0 to 10, where "0" indicates your extremely negative attitude to a civic campaign of assistance or support to this group of people, and "10" — an extremely positive attitude)

Average score
Military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine 9.3
Internally displaced persons, refugees from occupied and frontline regions 7.6
Citizens of Ukraine who left the country after the beginning of the war 5.1
Representatives of the opposition political forces 3.2
Representatives of the ruling political forces 3.2
Representatives of environmental organizations 5.8
People accused of evasion from military service 3.2
People accused of assistance to Russia and the Russian military 0.8
Representatives of sexual minorities 2.4
People accused of corrupt acts 1.1
Representatives of organizations fighting corruption 5.7
Representatives of women's organizations and associations 6.3
Representatives of human rights organizations 6.0
Representatives of cultural associations of national minorities 5.8
Handicapped and disabled persons 8.3
Low-income people 7.4
Representatives of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine 5.8
Representatives of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchate) 2.3


Do you have relatives or friends (military or civilian) who died or were injured as a result of hostilities or bombing after February 24, 2022?

Yes 53.5
No 41.9
Hard to say 4.6


I will mention institutes of society. To what extent do you trust them?

Totally distrust Rather, distrust Rather, trust Fully trust Hard to say Balance
President of Ukraine 13.7 19.4 42.7 17.1 7.1 26.7
Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine 35.9 38.8 17.7 1.9 5.6 -55.1
Government of Ukraine 32.7 36.1 23.0 1.5 6.6 -44.3
State machinery (officials) 37.7 36.8 16.2 1.3 8.1 -57.0
Your city (town, village) mayor 17.8 22.9 46.3 6.8 6.2 12.4
Local council of your city (town, village) 16.2 26.2 42.6 5.4 9.5 5.6
Armed Forces of Ukraine 1.7 2.9 24.3 68.4 2.8 88.1
Ministry of Defence of Ukraine 6.7 19.5 42.4 23.1 8.3 39.3
State Border Service 4.3 11.6 39.8 37.8 6.5 61.7
National Guard of Ukraine 4.6 10.2 39.8 39.0 6.3 64.0
National Police 15.2 28.2 37.0 12.6 7.0 6.2
Security Service of Ukraine 8.4 17.5 42.1 22.4 9.8 38.6
State Emergency Service 2.0 5.8 35.7 52.5 4.0 80.4
Prosecutor’s Office 27.0 35.1 22.2 4.1 11.6 -35.8
Courts (judicial system as a whole) 34.1 37.0 14.7 2.6 11.6 -53.8
National Anticorruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) 22.9 34.8 21.9 3.2 17.1 -32.6
Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office 23.5 33.2 21.8 3.2 18.2 -31.7
National Agency on Corruption Prevention (NACP) 23.6 32.4 20.9 3.4 19.6 -31.7
Verkhovna Rada Human Rights Commissioner (Ombudsman) 11.4 22.6 37.2 9.9 18.9 13.1
Ukrainian mass media 15.6 31.4 38.7 5.7 8.6 -2.6
National Bank of Ukraine 12.8 26.1 44.4 6.0 10.8 11.5
Commercial banks 22.4 33.6 26.1 3.0 14.9 -26.9
Trade unions 18.3 25.9 24.0 4.6 27.2 -15.6
Political parties 32.7 40.4 12.0 2.9 12.0 -58.2
Public organizations 7.2 19.9 51.4 10.4 11.1 34.7
Church 8.7 14.8 43.9 19.6 13.0 40.0
Volunteer detachments 3.9 8.1 43.9 36.3 7.9 68.2
Volunteer organizations 3.2 10.4 52.0 30.2 4.2 68.6
Ukrainian authorities as a whole 21.0 32.4 30.4 4.9 11.2 -18.1
Ukrainian opposition as a whole 27.2 34.7 17.1 2.0 19.1 -42.8


I will now mentions some types of political systems. Tell me, how good they are for our country, in your opinion? For each one — whether it is a very good, rather good, rather bad, or a very bad system of government for our country?

Very good Rather good Rather bad Very bad No answer
A strong leader, independent of parliament and elections 29.3 39.6 23.1 7.4 0.6
It is not the government, but experts who make decisions that they consider best for the country 15.7 42.2 33.0 8.3 0.7
A military rule, or a military regime 9.8 26.7 45.7 17.2 0.7
A democratic political system 43.6 44.4 8.5 3.0 0.5


With which of the following statements do you tend to agree most of all?

Democracy is the most desirable type of government for Ukraine 61.2
Under certain circumstances, an authoritarian regime may be better than a democratic one 12.9
For a person like me, it doesn't matter whether the country is democratic or not 15.2
Hard to say 10.7


With which of the following statements do you tend to agree more?

Both freedom and prosperity are important, but in exchange for my well-being I am ready to give up part of my rights and civil liberties to the state 26.7
Both freedom and prosperity are important, but in exchange for my well-being I am ready to endure certain material hardships 45.4
Hard to say 28.0


Do you think that Ukraine is a democratic state?

Yes, Ukraine is a fully democratic state 20.7
Ukraine is not a fully democratic state yet, but it is moving towards democracy 48.3
Ukraine is not a democratic state, neither is it moving towards democracy 21.5
Hard to say 9.5


With which of the following do you associate (identify) yourself in the first place?

With the city of village where you live 18.3
With the region where you live 12.3
With Ukraine 60.5
With Russia 0.4
With the Soviet Union 1.6
With Europe 4.4
Other 0.9
Hard to say 1.7


Do you feel like a European?

Yes 14.6
Rather, yes 24.6
Rather, no 26.8
No 25.0
Hard to say 9.0


What is your attitude to the idea of ​​holding national elections (presidential or parliamentary) after a ceasefire (if it happens) but before a peace agreement is signed?

Positive 28.5
Negative 50.1
Hard to say 21.5


Now, I will mention some countries. Please tell me how positive or negative your attitude to each of them is.

Fully positive Mainly positive Mainly negative Fully negative Hard to say Balance
Belarus 3.9 11.4 32.7 45.0 6.9 -62.4
Great Britain 43.7 46.7 4.7 2.0 2.9 83.7
Denmark 37.9 51.5 3.4 1.6 5.6 84.4
Estonia 43.5 46.1 4.7 2.2 3.5 82.7
Israel 16.5 47.1 16.7 6.8 12.9 40.1
Iran 2.1 10.9 27.1 51.9 8.1 -66.0
Canada 45.1 47.3 3.4 1.6 2.6 87.4
China 4.6 21.0 32.1 33.0 9.3 -39.5
Latvia 43.7 47.7 3.1 2.0 3.5 86.3
Lithuania 45.4 45.8 3.5 1.8 3.5 85.9
Moldova 26.4 57.1 6.1 2.6 7.8 74.8
Netherlands 39.2 50.6 3.4 1.6 5.3 84.8
Germany 42.0 49.2 4.5 1.7 2.6 85.0
Norway 41.2 48.2 4.3 1.4 4.8 83.7
Poland 40.4 47.1 5.9 2.9 3.7 78.7
Russia 0.8 2.1 7.6 87.8 1.7 -92.5
Romania 13.1 53.3 15.2 5.7 12.7 45.5
Slovakia 10.9 45.7 20.9 9.3 13.2 26.4
USA 16.1 47.0 19.0 7.7 10.3 36.4
Turkey 17.6 51.9 16.3 3.7 10.5 49.5
Hungary 7.7 31.2 25.4 26.6 9.2 -13.1
Finland 33.1 56.3 4.4 1.6 4.6 83.4
France 42.3 49.2 4.1 1.9 2.4 85.5
Czechia 38.8 49.5 4.7 1.4 5.5 82.2
Sweden 37.4 52.5 2.8 1.6 5.8 85.5
Japan 30.6 51.7 5.9 3.6 8.2 72.8


Which conditions do you consider to be the minimum necessary for a peace agreement with Russia?

Liberation of Ukraine from Russian troops in the borders of 1991 39.4
Liberation of Ukraine from Russian troops along the contact line of early 2022 29.8
I admit the borders along the front line at the time of the agreement 10.8
Hard to say 19.9


Do you agree with the following statements?

Yes No Hard to say
Ukraine can defeat Russia if Western partners provide enough weapons 77.4 9.3 13.3
Ukraine can defeat Russia if the West helps with human resources 73.0 12.1 14.9
Ukraine can defeat Russia if Ukraine builds a strong domestic defence industry and gets mobilization in order 73.4 10.6 16.0
Ukraine cannot defeat Russia, because their human, economic, financial and military-technical potentials are incomparable 16.7 51.7 31.6
Ukraine cannot defeat Russia because Russia has more efficient and prompt allies 10.7 57.8 31.5


Do you think that a military victory for Ukraine in the war with Russia is possible?

Yes 60.6
No 18.8
Hard to say 20.6


If it were up to you, what would you be ready to give up during negotiations with Russia?

Ukrainian territories 11.1
Pro-Western vector of Ukraine’s free development 14.7
None of the above 56.9
Hard to say 17.4


With which of the following statements do you tend to agree most of all?

In case of signing a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia, both sides will seek to abide by the agreement 10.8
In case of signing a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia, Russia will break the agreement and attack Ukraine as soon as it thinks convenient 66.5
In case of signing a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia, Ukraine will break the agreement and attack Russia as soon as it thinks convenient 2.6
In case of signing a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia, both sides will try to break the agreement. as soon as it is convenient for them 5.6
Hard to say 14.4


Do you think Ukraine should agree to the following measures as a condition for signing a peace agreement with Russia

Yes it should No it should not Hard to say
Refusal from NATO membership 30.5 52.3 17.2
Reduction of the Armed Forces of Ukraine 8.3 81.0 10.7


Do you believe in the possibility of signing a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia in the near future?

Yes 27.9
No 54.1
Hard to say 18.0


Which model of social development seems more attractive for you?

European model 57.2
Russian model 0.7
They are equally attractive 2.7
None of them is attractive 27.5
Hard to say 11.9


Do you live now at the expense of…? (you main source of subsistence)

Financial assistance from different sources 2.4
Previous savings 0.8
Business incomes 3.0
Permanent work 46.3
Temporary (additional) work 6.4
Scholarship 1.4
Pension 24.7
At the expense of incomes of another member(s) of my family (husband, wife, parents, etc.) 9.6
Other sources 1.9
Hard to say, no answer 3.4


What changes took place in your work after February 24, 2022?

No changes, I had no job before and don't have it now 18.9
No changes, I work as before 32.9
I fully or partially switched to remote work with full salary 4.1
I went on a fully paid long-term leave 0.9
I fully or partially switched to remote work with partial retention of my salary 2.6
I went on a partly paid leave 0.5
I went on a non-paid leave 1.2
I changed my job 9.1
I lost my job 7.1
I was unemployed before February 24, 2022, but now I have a job 3.2
Other 14.2
Hard to say 5.3


Has your dwelling suffered from hostilities?

Your dwelling was completely destroyed 1.7
It was damaged, but can be (or has been) restored (repaired) 4.5
Your dwelling has not suffered 89.3
You had no dwelling of your own 1.7
You don't know if your dwelling has suffered, and to what extent 0.8
No answer 2.0


Do you belong to any of the groups I will mention?

Yes No No answer
During the full-scale war (after February 24, 2022), you had to leave your place of residence and to move to another place within Ukraine for more than one month, but now, you are back home 9.8 89.6 0.6
During the full-scale war (after February 24, 2022), you had to leave your place of residence and to move to another place within Ukraine, and after that you did not return to your place of residence 3.9 95.3 0.8
You lived in the territory occupied by Russian troops for some time 5.8 93.4 0.8
You lived in a combat zone or in an area that was shelled for some time 14.5 84.9 0.7
You left your place of residence after 2014 due to hostilities in Donbas or occupation of the Crimea 1.2 98.0 0.8
During the war, you had to leave your place of residence and to live abroad for some time 3.9 95.3 0.8
You are a combatant or a war veteran 3.0 96.2 0.8


Do you have close relatives or family members who left the country after February 24, 2022? % among those whose close relatives or family members left the country after February 24, 2022, and at least some of them still live abroad

Yes, and they live abroad even now 24.2
Yes, but they have returned to Ukraine 14.5
I have those who left the country after February 24 and still live abroad, as well as those who left the country after February 24 but returned to Ukraine 9.5
I don't have close relatives or family members who left the country after February 24 48.0
Hard to say 3.8


Do your close relatives or family members who currently live abroad plan to return to Ukraine after the war?

All my close relatives or family members plan to return to Ukraine 16.0
Some do, others don’t 39.7
They don’t plan to 24.4
Hard to say / no idea 20.0


In which country are (were) they? (write; if they were in different countries, specify them all), % among those whose close relatives or family members left the country after February 24, 2022

Poland 41.4
Germany 28.3
Czechia 11.6
Italy 6.8
Canada 5.0
USA 5.0
Great Britain 4.6
Spain 4.1
France 4.0
The Netherlands 3.8
Denmark 2.6
Norway 2.6
Sweden 1.8
Slovakia 1.7
Portugal 1.3
Hungary 1.3
Lithuania 1.1
Moldova 1.1
Romania 1.1
Switzerland 1.1
Belgium 1.0
Ireland 1.0
Bulgaria 0.9
Austria 0.6
Estonia 0.6
Turkey 0.6
Finland 0.6
Cyprus 0.5
Belarus 0.4
Latvia 0.4
Croatia 0.4
Israel 0.3
Russia 0.2
Australia 0.1
Albania 0.1
Egypt 0.1
Iceland 0.1
Thailand 0.1
Montenegro 0.1
No answer 2.8


Do you plan to leave Ukraine for another country for permanent residence after the war?

I will certainly leave Ukraine 2.3
I will most probably leave Ukraine 7.4
I will most probably not leave Ukraine 21.7
I will certainly not leave Ukraine 52.3
Hard to say 16.2


Do you support introduction of universal military duty in Ukraine, following the example of Israel, where all citizens of the country — both men and women — are subject to conscription?

Yes 25.8
No 54.0
Hard to say 20.2


In the event of introduction of universal military duty following the example of Israel, are you ready to participate in regular military trainings lasting from 50 to 100 days?

Yes, once a year 7.2
Yes, once in three years 10.3
Yes, once in five years 7.0
No, I am not ready 56.5
Hard to say 18.9


How would you assess the efficiency of international support for Ukraine resisting Russian aggression?
on a five-point scale from 1 to 5, where "1" means that the assistance is completely inefficient, "5" — very efficient

Average score
Military assistance 3.4
Financial assistance 3.5
Imposition of sanctions against the aggressor country 2.8
Assistance with reconstruction of destroyed facilities in Ukraine 3.1
Political solidarity with and support for Ukraine on international platforms 3.5
Facilitation of reforms in Ukraine 3.0
Assistance to Ukrainian refugees 3.8


Do you believe in Ukraine’s victory in the war with Russia?

Yes 41.6
Rather, yes 34.1
Rather, no 9.0
No 4.5
Hard to say 10.8


What is your personal idea of the victory in the war?

% among all those polled % among those who believe in Ukraine’s victory
End of the war, even if the Russian army remains in the territories seized after February 24, 2022 (parts of Kherson, Zaporizhia regions, Donbas) 12.2 8.2
Expulsion of Russian troops behind the line as of February 23, 2022 (separate districts of Donetsk, Luhansk regions and Crimea remain occupied) 20.1 20.7
Expulsion of Russian troops from the entire territory of Ukraine except Crimea 10.0 10.8
Expulsion of Russian troops from the entire territory of Ukraine and restoration of borders as of January 2014 25.8 29.8
Defeat of the Russian army and an uprising in /collapse of Russia 18.4 21.4
Other 2.1 1.2
Hard to say 11.5 7.9


After Ukraine's victory and de-occupation of its territory, will you support a complete breach of all relations with Russia, including a complete ban on the entry of Russian citizens into Ukraine?

Yes 58.2
Rather, yes 22.3
Rather, no 6.7
No 3.7
Hard to say 9.2


Do you believe Belarus to be a party to the war, fighting against Ukraine?

Yes 75.8
No 12.0
Hard to say 12.2


After Ukraine's victory and de-occupation of its territory, will you support a complete breach of all relations with the Belarus, including a complete ban on the entry of Belarusian citizens into Ukraine (except political asylum seekers)?

Yes 37,2
Rather, yes 25,9
Rather, no 16,5
No 6,4
Hard to say 14,0


How do you see Ukraine’s future?

Ukraine will be a highly developed, democratic, influential European country 51.0
Ukraine will be a country with a special path of development (like China) 19.1
Ukraine will be an undeveloped appendage of Russia 0.4
Ukraine will be an undeveloped appendage of the West 5.3
Ukraine will always be a «Third World» country, undeveloped and uninfluential 1.7
Ukraine will disappear as an independent state 1.2
I don’t care about the future of this country 0.5
Other 2.6
Hard to say 18.3