The attitude of Ukrainian citizens to the conditions of peaceful settlement and their idea of security guarantees
Razumkov Centre December 11, 2025 Sociology
On December 10, US President Donald Trump said: "If you look at the polls, I will say 82% — there was a poll which came out — 82% of the people are demanding a settlement be made" (in Ukraine). At the same time, he failed to name the source of this information or the research organization that conducted the poll.
The terms of such peaceful settlement remain the key issue for Ukrainian citizens. According to the results of a poll conducted by the Razumkov Centre Sociological Service together with the Kyiv Security Forum on September 12-17, 20251, only 8% of respondents reported readiness to cede Ukrainian territories during negotiations with Russia (the same as in June 2024 and slightly less than in April–May 2025 — then, they made 11%).
Even fewer (10%) respondents are ready to give up the pro-Western vector of free development for Ukraine (in June 2024 — 14%, in April–May 2025 — 15%).
62% are not ready to give up any of the above (in June 2024 — 61%, in April–May 2025 — 57%).
The majority of residents in all regions are ready to give up neither territories nor the pro-Western vector of development.
Only 5% of respondents believe that Ukraine should agree to the Russian demands and withdraw Ukrainian troops from Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions (from the entire territory of these regions within their administrative borders) in order to stop the war with Russia and to the official status of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions, Crimea and Sevastopol as Russian regions. Only 10% of citizens would agree to the abolition of all Western sanctions against Russia, only 18% would agree to a neutral, non-aligned, non-nuclear status of Ukraine to be prescribed in the Ukrainian Constitution.
Approximately the same as in April–May 2025, the vast majority (64%) of respondents believe that in the event of a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia, Russia will break the agreement and attack Ukraine as soon as it deems convenient. That is why the peace agreement must include security guarantees.
The vast majority of citizens see the strengthening of the Armed Forces and defence capabilities of Ukraine without any restrictions, with stable funding, to be the most reliable guarantee of Ukraine's security (88% of respondents answered that such security guarantee is completely or rather reliable).
If it were up to you, what would you be ready to give up during negotiations with Russia?, %
| June 2024 | April–May 2025 | September 2025 | |
| Ukrainian territories | 7.6 | 11.1 | 8.1 |
| Pro-Western vector of free development for Ukraine | 14.0 | 14.7 | 10.1 |
| Neither of the above | 61.1 | 56.9 | 62.3 |
| Hard to say | 17.3 | 17.4 | 19.5 |
Do you believe that Ukraine should agree to the conditions put forward by Vladimir Putin in order for Russia to end the war?, %
| Yes it should | No it should not | Hard to say | |
| Ukrainian troops should be completely withdrawn from the entire territory of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions within their administrative borders | |||
| June 2024 | 6.1 | 82.8 | 11.1 |
| September 2025 | 5.2 | 90.2 | 4.5 |
| The status of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions, Crimea and Sevastopol as regions of Russia should be prescribed in international treaties | |||
| June 2024 | 4.5 | 83.6 | 11.8 |
| September 2025 | 5.3 | 89.4 | 5.3 |
| All Western sanctions against Russia should be abolished | |||
| June 2024 | 9.0 | 76.9 | 14.1 |
| September 2025 | 9.8 | 83.1 | 7.1 |
| A neutral, non-aligned, non-nuclear status of Ukraine should be prescribed in the Ukrainian Constitution | |||
| June 2024 | 21.8 | 58.5 | 19.7 |
| September 2025 | 18.2 | 68.1 | 13.7 |
With which statement do you tend to agree more?, %
| April–May 2025 | September 2025 | |
| In case of signing of a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia, both sides will seek to abide by such agreement | 10.8 | 13.1 |
| In case of signing of a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia, Russia will break the agreement and attack Ukraine as soon as it deems convenient | 66.5 | 64.2 |
| In case of signing of a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia, Ukraine will break the agreement and attack Russia as soon as it deems convenient | 2.6 | 1.8 |
| In case of signing of a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia, both sides will break the agreement as soon as they deems convenient | 5.6 | 5.8 |
| Hard to say | 14.4 | 15.1 |
Do you consider the following security guarantees reliable, if granted to Ukraine?, %
| Quite reliable | Rather reliable | Rather unreliable | Totally unreliable | Hard to say | |
| Strengthening of the Armed Forces and defence capabilities of Ukraine without any restrictions, stable funding of the Armed Forces of Ukraine | 56.1 | 32.1 | 5.6 | 1.2 | 5.0 |
| Creation of a “no-fly zone” for Ukraine as part of security guarantees. Western countries provide air patrols, fighter jet cover, and air defence systems for Ukrainian airports | 40.2 | 36.5 | 9.9 | 3.5 | 9.8 |
| Enforcement of an effective sanctions policy | 38.5 | 27.8 | 15.8 | 8.0 | 9.8 |
| Ukraine’s accession to NATO | 35.3 | 32.4 | 14.4 | 5.3 | 12.5 |
| Creation of conditions for Ukraine's membership in the European Union, in particular, opening of negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU | 34.5 | 32.6 | 16.0 | 7.0 | 9.9 |
| Creation of a 40 km buffer zone between Ukrainian and Russian troops within the framework of a future peace agreement, deployment of a multi-thousand-strong military contingent from European countries in Ukraine's rear | 29.8 | 35.7 | 16.5 | 5.0 | 13.0 |
| Deployment of US private military company fighters in Ukraine | 29.3 | 30.7 | 18.8 | 5.5 | 15.7 |
| Creation of a system of legally binding multilateral partnership guarantees at the level of state leaders for defence support to Ukraine | 22.9 | 39.4 | 20.8 | 5.0 | 12.0 |
1 Face-to-face interviews were conducted in Vinnytsia, Volyn, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zhytomyr, Transcarpathian, Zaporizhia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Mykolayiv, Odesa, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Kharkiv, Kherson, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Chernivtsi regions and the city of Kyiv — in the territories controlled by the government of Ukraine and free of hostilities.
The sample structure reproduces the demographic structure of the adult population of the territories where the poll was held as of the beginning of 2022 (by age, sex, settlement type).
1,210 respondents aged above 18 were polled. The theoretical margin of error of poll sample does not exceed 2.9%. However, additional systematic sample deviations may be caused by the consequences of Russian aggression, including forced evacuation of millions of citizens.
