Tetiana Khvostova, Razumkov Centre intern, student of the B. Grinchenko Kyiv Metropolitan University.

The victory of Karol Nawrocki, supported by the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party, affected the pan-European political landscape and became another evidence of a certain swing to the right in the electoral sentiments in Poland and some other European countries. What is disturbing in this regard is that according to the results of the first round of the Polish elections, far-right anti-Ukrainian candidates S. Mentzen and G. Braun received 14.8% and 6.3% of the vote, respectively.

In general, K. Nawrocki's election campaign was based on the rhetoric of "a strong Poland", with an emphasis on traditional values, national sovereignty, border security and stricter regulation of migration. In the international politics, K. Nawrocki declares a course close to right-wing populism, similar to D. Trump's approaches – in particular, the priority of national interest and scepticism towards multilateral institutions.

Regarding Ukrainian-Polish relations, some statements and rhetoric of the newly elected Polish President raise questions and concern. Even before officially taking office, K. Nawrocki is sending some contradictory signals, in particular, about Ukraine's European and Euro-Atlantic integration. At the same time, in response to V. Zelenskyy's congratulations with his election victory, he mentioned the need to "resolve long-standing historical issues." In this regard, it is worth mentioning the recent decision of the Polish Sejm to establish July 11 as the Day of Remembrance for the victims of the so-called “genocide in the eastern territories of the Second Polish Republic”. This step received an appropriate response from the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry.

Unfortunately, there is kind of a “pause” in Polish-Ukrainian top level contacts now. It clearly contrasts with the approach of the previous president, who demonstrated solidarity with Ukraine from the first days of the full-scale war.

In general, one may expect actualization of the sensitive agenda in the relations between Kyiv and Warsaw. However, it is still difficult to predict to what extent K. Nawrocki’s pre-election rhetoric will be translated into real politics. In the past, radical pre-election slogans of leaders after coming to power often changed to a more moderate, pragmatic position in the home and foreign policies. 

Geopolitical realities can play a corrective role. Poland remains a key transit hub for the Western military-technical and economic aid, a shelter for great many Ukrainian refugees and a strategic partner of Ukraine confronting Russian aggression, the threat and danger of which has been repeatedly mentioned by K. Nawrocki. Even after the rotation of political elites, the role of Poland as a logistical and security hub will not lose its relevance and strategic importance. 

The coming months will show the extent to which the new Polish authorities are ready to maintain the current level of strategic partnership. There is hope that pragmatic considerations, economic and security interests on both sides will prevail over political emotions and the inertia of the election campaign.

Ukraine, on its part, is interested in stable partner relations with Warsaw. We expect that the new Polish President will be able to maintain a balance between domestic policy and external obligations, particularly in the context of regional security and support for Ukraine.

https://razumkov.org.ua/komentari/ukrainapolshcha-novi-politychni-realii-i-vyklyky