Milana Yerina, Razumkov Centre intern, student of Borys Grinchenko Kyiv Metropolitan University

The ongoing war in the Middle East, with clashing interests of global powers, has both regional and global dimensions. On the one hand, the Middle East conflict involves sharp rivalry and confrontation of regional actors, especially Israel and Iran, on the other — it is a "puzzle" of a more global confrontation between the democratic world and the camp of authoritarian states.

Escalation of the Middle Eastern conflict was caused by the Hamas attack on Israel, the subsequent military invasion of the IDF in the Gaza Strip, the growth of tension between Israel and Hezbollah and a ground operation in southern Lebanon.

The recent events have significantly changed the situation in the region. On November 27, Israel and Lebanon signed an agreement on permanent cessation of hostilities, which stopped the hot phase of the conflict, effectively ended the Israeli-Lebanese war and closed the northern front for Israel. In the world, the deal between Israel and Lebanon are seen as a step towards a more fundamental and permanent agreement that will stabilize the situation in the Gaza Strip and contribute to peace in the Middle East.

On the same day, November 27, Syrian rebels launched a ground operation against the ruling regime and Iranian militias (including Hezbollah). And as soon as on December 8, opposition forces entered Damascus and announced the fall of the Assad regime.

It was a painful blow to Russia's geopolitical positions not only in the Middle East region, but globally. The Russian Federation joined the Syrian war on the side of Assad after the annexation of Crimea and the start of the hybrid war in Donbas, when it faced a threat of losing the status of a key political centre of influence. Russia's active role in the Syrian war allowed it to maintain geopolitical presence in the region.

Such rapid changes in the Middle East, affecting the global geopolitical balance, carry both opportunities and challenges. At the same time, it is important to assess the impact of these changes on the Ukrainian situation.

Speaking of the war in the Middle East, a number of important factors should be noted. First, this conflict diverted the resources of Kyiv's allies to help Israel. After the start of the war in Gaza, Washington announced additional funding for Israel. This money is allocated from the same budget that covers aid to Ukraine. It is clear that Israel, like Ukraine, needs modern weapons systems, including artillery, missiles, and air defence. For example, the Patriot SAMs, provided by the US, comprise a critical part of the Israeli air defence, and they probably shot down most of the 180 ballistic missiles that Iran launched at Israel on October 1, 2024. Therefore, it was necessary to replenish the stock of missiles for those systems, and these supplies come from the United States. At the same time, the White House had to explain to the Congress why simultaneous support for both countries was critical. This affected the speed of decision-making and the volume of aid to Ukraine.

Second. Military aid to Israel creates an additional burden on the defence production capacities of Western countries, already stretched to the limit due to the war in Ukraine. One of the biggest risks for Ukraine is that supporting two important strategic partners — Israel and Ukraine — at the same time could lead to the reduction of supplies for the Ukrainian military.

Third. The Western media and political establishment largely focused on the crisis in the Middle East, while the war in Ukraine receded into the background. Key global media outlets, which in the first months of the Russian invasion widely covered the situation in Ukraine, later re-focused on the events in Gaza and Lebanon. In the conditions of information overload, public attention, and with it — political support, often depends on the media focus. Western societies, observing the humanitarian disaster in the Gaza Strip, made greater efforts to resolve that conflict. The Middle East crisis temporarily displaced Ukraine from the agenda.

It should also be added that the Middle East remains a key region for the global energy market. The growth of tension in the region has already caused a surge in oil and gas prices, which also affects Ukraine, strongly dependent on energy imports.

It is quite difficult to predict the strategic consequences of the recent events in the region now. In general, there are reasons to hope for the development and strengthening of the peace process, but it is also obvious that the threat of escalation of armed confrontation has not been removed from the agenda due to many political, ethnic, and religious reasons.

At the same time, the fall of the Assad regime and the weakening of Russia's influence in the region may naturally undermine its role of a geopolitical actor, which could potentially change the balance of forces in favour of Ukraine. Kyiv should use this situation to step up diplomatic interaction with allies, strengthen its energy resilience and secure steady military assistance. Effective adaptation to new global realities should preserve the support of allies to resist the Russian aggression.

https://razumkov.org.ua/komentari/konflikt-na-blyzkomu-skhodi-novi-shansy-i-novi-vyklyky