Danylo Alyab'yev, Razumkov Centre intern, student of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv
The incident with the violation of Polish airspace has become one of the most dangerous challenges for NATO since the beginning of the full-scale war. On the night of September 9-10, 2025, about 19 drones crossed the Polish border from Belarus and Ukraine. In response, Poland for the first time used NATO aircraft (including Dutch F-35s) and shot down several drones. The airspace over several Polish airports was closed. On the same day, Poland appealed to NATO and invoked Article 4 of its charter, which provides for consultations if an alliance member believes that its territory is under threat.
Poland qualifies the incident as a serious provocation by Russia, an attempt to test NATO’s readiness and reaction of the Western allies. Prime Minister D. Tusk said that the first downing of Russian drones over Poland was a test that “was successfully passed.” Polish Foreign Minister R. Sikorski insists that it was not an accident but a planned provocation. He is echoed by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) that warned of signs of preparation for similar provocations by Russia. In his turn, President V. Zelenskyy stressed that it was an operation planned by the Kremlin, targeting Poland and NATO in order to test the efficiency and limits of the Western response.
West European leaders in a joint statement strongly condemned violation of the Polish airspace, calling this act “irresponsible”, “unacceptable” and a threat to the security of the entire European community. NATO Secretary General M. Rutte said that the allies highly appreciated the coordination and efficiency of the military union, intercepting Russian drones, and in response, NATO launched Operation Eastern Sentinel to strengthen the defence of its eastern flank.
The US reaction came later, and was more restrained. D. Trump reacted to the Russian provocation only in the evening by publishing a short post on the Truth Social network, where he suggested that this might have been a "mistake". However, in a conversation with the Polish President K. Nawrocki D. Trump assured him of his support and loyalty to the alliance's commitments.
On September 12, the UN Security Council for the first time its history gathered for an emergency meeting at Poland’s request. The US, along with the EU countries, Ukraine and other states, supported the Polish statement at the UN, condemned the Russian provocation and rejected Russia's explanations of this incident.
Was the Western response to the Russian "test of force" for NATO's defence strong and adequate enough? The European media criticized the US, saying that Washington's reaction did not seem that strong. Some European diplomats expressed concern that such a weak or ambiguous position could be seen by Moscow as a sign of weakness. In general, subsequent events confirmed that this opinion was not unreasonable.
The aggressor country continued to "test" the strength of the West. As soon as on August 19, 3 Russian MiG-31 fighters en route to Kaliningrad violated Estonian airspace. Estonia also invoked NATO’s Article 4 and convened a meeting of the UN Security Council.
It is obvious that the recent escalation of Russia’s hybrid aggression and increased forcible provocations demand an adequate and decisive response from the West.
The nature, character and thrust of Moscow’s actions on the world stage in general and in Ukraine in particular indicate that the aggressor country understands only the “language of force”. Uproductive discussions on various platforms and uncertainty about further actions are perceived by the Kremlin as a sign of weakness and only encourage Russia to push its interests in Europe by force.
The Ukrainian side has repeatedly emphasized the need to create a joint European air defence system, exchange military experience, and use NATO air defence assets to intercept targets over Ukraine. The collective response to the Kremlin’s aggressive policy should include stronger and broader sanctions against Russia and efficient control of their compliance; barring the purchase of Russian energy resources under gray schemes; greater military-technical and financial assistance to Kyiv; development and institutionalization of reliable security guarantees for Ukraine; efficient use of frozen Russian assets to counter Russia’s aggression, etc.
Here, the unity of positions and actions of Ukraine’s Western allies is important. Only strong efforts, practical steps and strategic unity of the West can end the war and guarantee the security of Ukraine and the whole European continent.
