(based on the results of expert and public opinion polls in the 1st quarter of 2023)
The results of two polls are compared – an expert poll and a public opinion poll, held by the Razumkov Centre Sociological Service in the 1st quarter of 2023 as part of the MATRA Program project financed by the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in Ukraine (the assessments and conclusions of the authors should not be taken as the official position of the Embassy). The expert poll was conducted from February 26 to March 15, 41 experts were interviewed (representatives of scientific research institutes, experts of the Ministry of Economy, city and regional administrations, etc.). The public opinion poll was conducted from February 22 to March 1, 2,020 respondents aged above 18 were interviewed in the territories controlled by the Ukrainian government and free from hostilities.
Although the poll results look generally encouraging, they demonstrate conflicting views - of experts and the polled citizens (population) - on the ability to overcome the problems faced by the country now.
Both experts and citizens express quite high confidence in the country's ability to overcome the existing problems and difficulties. About 90% of respondents (experts and the public) share the opinion that they will be overcome in the coming years or in a longer term (diagram "Ability to overcome existing problems and difficulties").
At the same time, citizens and experts similarly assess the country's ability to overcome problems and difficulties in the next few years (49% and 46%, respectively), but the former less often than the latter talk about the ability to overcome them in the longer term (36% and 46%, respectively). The thing is that it is more difficult for citizens than for experts to forecast the developments in the more distant future (which is not surprising), so among them more people are undecided (11% and 5%, respectively). Pessimists (those who believe that Ukraine cannot overcome the existing problems and difficulties) are equally few among citizens and experts (3% each).
Ability to overcome existing problems and difficulties, % of answers
expert poll
public opinion poll
It can overcome in the coming years. It can overcome in a more remote future It can’t Hard to say
Regarding changes in the domestic economic situation in the next 3 months, almost half of the respondents (both experts and citizens) do not expect any noticeable changes (diagram "Changes in the domestic economic situation in the next three months"). Meanwhile, the population is more optimistic than experts (the latter more often than citizens expect the situation to worsen (36% and 23%, respectively).
Changes in the domestic economic situation in the next three months, % of responses
expert poll
public opinion poll
For the better For the worse No change Hard to say
Regarding the long-term perspective (economic changes within 2-3 years), both experts and the population share mainly positive expectations (changes for the better are expected by 59% and 52%, respectively) (diagram "Changes in the domestic economic situation in the next 2-3 years"). At the same time, the population is less likely than experts (11% and 23%, respectively) to expect negative changes – probably, considering that the worst has already happened (aggression and its consequences).
Note the large (26%) share of citizens who do not have a clear vision ("hard to say") of the trend of economic changes in the country in the next 2-3 years.
Changes in the domestic economic situation in the next 2-3 years, % of responses
expert poll
public opinion poll
For the better. For the worse. No change. Hard to say
To briefly sum up, there are reasons to state that while (in the conditions of the continuation of the war) "neutral" sentiments prevail in the assessment of the short-term prospects - neither experts nor the population foresee any serious changes, Ukrainians believe that the country will overcome problems and difficulties (within a few or a little more years), and in 2-3 years, the economic situation will change for the better.
https://razumkov.org.ua/komentari/pro-podolannia-ekonomichnykh-problem-i-trudnoshchiv-ukrainoiu
