Yuriy YAKYMENKO,

President of Razumkov Centre

Vasyl YURCHYSHYN,

Director of Economic Programmes of Razumkov Centre

Today it is unequivocally recognised that it is the comprehensive partnership assistance of a wide range of democratic countries which enabled a real effective pro-Ukrainian anti-aggression coalition. Without diminishing the importance of all those who, as much as possible, have supported and continue to support Ukraine, one should highlight the countries, which are to a large extent the "centres of gravity" of such assistance, given their active role in the implementation of the policy of countering the aggressor. 

Recent political events once again re-actualise the agenda of partnership strength. Political course "America First" puts new emphasis and priorities in the development of the democratic world, whilst the priority needs of partnership strength are becoming almost the most essential for the whole of Europe.

At the beginning of 2025, Ukraine once again finds itself in the centre of political discourses and discussions, due to growing uncertainty about the timing and scale of assistance and support to the country, primarily from the United States. Additionally, this growing uncertainty is deepened by the consequences of the aggressive policy of russia. The situation is complicated by contradictory statements and actions of certain representatives of the political elite of democratic countries. In this environment, two destructive dispositions develop: on the one hand, various right- and left-wing radical tendencies are gaining momentum (including in countries that are considered a central bastion of democracy), and on the other hand, institutional cohesion around international support for Ukraine is weakening, which is partly explained by the "fatigue" of (primarily European) civil societies.

Meanwhile, even in such a contradictory world, certain stakeholders (individual countries or alliances) are able to transform risks into challenges, and challenges into benefits (both economic, political or diplomatic). One of them currently is – and should remain – Europe, which can once again demonstrate its ability to take a leading position in the development of modern civilisation.

Transatlantic unity after World War II was the cornerstone of democratic civilisation. Today, the risks of losing unity between European and North American partners are becoming more and more apparent. For democratic Europe in general and the European Union in particular, the most significant challenges and influences of the newly elected US leaders are related to the difficulties of forming a European system of continental and global security, which should gradually reduce its dependence on the American "umbrella".

In conditions when a number of EU governments openly take nihilistic positions, the relevance of the leadership issue is growing. This leadership resumes in the identification of a country that will be able to lead the implementation of complex transformation processes in Europe. Even a few years ago, the answer laid almost on the surface – Germany, as the country with the most powerful economy in the European Union, and France, as the ideologist and initiator of strategic autonomy. However, internal political confrontations, weakening of ruling coalitions, strengthening of far-right currents (supported by an increasingly wide range of the electorate) called into question the effectiveness of the leadership of Germany and France in Europe.

And even if it might seem odd from the first glance, new prospects (including in terms of European leadership) are based on strengthening cooperation between the European Union and Great Britain, which recently parted ways due to Brexit. Moreover, the leading role in this cooperation will belong to Great Britain. Obviously, we are not talking about a "new marriage". Nevertheless, although the UK is an "external" force to the European Union, it continues to play a vital role in the European economy, as well as in supporting and strengthening democratic values. 

In this context, an additional factor of democratic cohesion continues to be the "Ukrainian factor", just as it was in the spring of 2022. If the new US Administration insists and seeks a peace agreement with moscow (at the expense of Ukraine), it will be a difficult test (and thus a possible political crossroads) for the democratic world in general and Europe in particular. A peace favourable to aggressive russia (or even a truce) would provoke moscow to test the strength of NATO and the effectiveness of the collective defence system of the alliance. As the experience of the war in Ukraine demonstrates, even the threat of significant losses of russian troops from such a provocation would undoubtedly add even more "interest" for the russian leaders, including for strengthening the split in the countries of the European Union regarding their approaches and limits of countering the aggressor.

Therefore, there are reasons to affirm that today the attitude towards countering the aggressor is becoming one of the significant factors essential to restore closer cooperation between London and Brussels, of course, without "involving" British structures and institutions into European ones. Therefore, the "reset" of EU-UK relations in favour of political rapprochement has practically no alternative if we keep the major goal to preserve the strength of Europe as a recognised centre of civilisation. Hence, the ideological and organizational leadership of the UK can be decisive, as has happened many times in recent history.

How ready is the UK to take the European leadership today, primarily in the economic sphere and in the field of international institution-building? There are two main features of the geopolitical place of the country. On the one hand, the formation of a system of democratic state and market economy, introduced over the centuries, brings the UK to the rank of "classics" of the world democratic system. On the other hand, the British Empire was among the most powerful in the world and many "ties" among the former constituents remain to this day. In such conditions, the voice of the UK can become decisive in helping the emerging countries to understand the real affairs and situations around Ukraine, in facilitating their comprehension of the imperial ambitions of russia, in supporting the fair nature of providing assistance by democratic countries to Ukraine to counter aggression.

For Ukraine, the leading role of Great Britain acquires a special meaning. The political elite of Great Britain, regardless of the ruling party and government, takes a firm position on the role and place of Ukraine in Europe. Without a peaceful democratic Ukraine, democratic Europe cannot be safe from the encroachments of the eastern aggressor.

Helping Ukraine in the war is one of the main foreign policy priorities of the UK. It has been actively supporting Ukraine since the very beginning of russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine. Indeed, the UK:

• was the first to make a decision to provide Kyiv with modern weapons and encouraged other European countries to do so,
• is the third largest donor of bilateral aid to Kyiv and a leading ally in the provision of lethal assistance,
• through the developed Unity mechanism, military aid and insurance, supported the Black Sea Corridor and allowed Ukraine to export crops that are critical for the global food security and economy of Ukraine,
• has established itself as a responsible partner in the provision of vital assistance, allocating £12.8 billion for the following needs for Ukraine: £7.8 billion in military and £5 billion in non-military support.

The participation of the UK in international and global institutions and platforms where events and situations in Ukraine have been discussed is also significant. Thus, in March 2022, February 2023, July 2024, the UK initiated and supported UN General Assembly resolutions condemning russia's invasion of Ukraine. And the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) was used as a global forum to highlight the threat that russia poses to humanity, both to hold russia accountable in accordance with international law and to strengthen support for Ukraine.

The decisions, measures and actions of the UK are not only of current security importance, but also aimed at the future development of Ukraine. Thus, the Agreement on Political, Free Trade and Strategic Partnership between the United Kingdom and Ukraine, allows British and Ukrainian companies to take advantage of duty-free trade, and thus strengthen their competitive position in world markets. This does not apply only to "traditional" industries. The UK-Ukraine Digital Trade Agreement, which has come into force, promotes duty-free trade in digital content and is an important step in supporting the digital transition.

The Partnership Fund for a Resilient Ukraine plays an important role in providing urgent support to the recently liberated territories and comes up with wide opportunities to help Ukrainian society cope with the losses caused by the war. The United Kingdom also agreed to provide unprecedented guarantees worth $5 billion (about £4 billion) so that Ukraine can access World Bank lending and thereby continue to finance public services and social programs.

Today, there are broad discussions around security guarantees for Ukraine. Unfortunately, the previous documents were not effective, so it is necessary to search for new mechanisms to support the country. In this context, the initiative of the United Kingdom to create the Britain-Ukraine-Poland Trilateral Alliance, which was announced on the eve of the russian invasion (in January 2022), deserves special attention. The pact envisaged the development of cooperation on a number of aspects, including cybersecurity and energy security, which actually brought bilateral and trilateral relations to a broader and deeper level than they had ever been before. Although such an alliance did not acquire proper legitimisation, with the beginning of the aggression, the United Kingdom and Poland has been among the most consistent allies of Ukraine.

And now this initiative is receiving a new momentum. At the beginning of 2024, an updated Ukrainian-British security agreement (Security Cooperation Agreement between Ukraine and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland) was signed. It is designed to promote mutual cooperation on defence and industrial issues. Moreover, the implementation of the provisions of the agreement began long before it was signed – de facto, they started to be implemented from the very beginning of the Russian invasion. The war in Ukraine has provided a real testing ground (in real conditions) of new types of weapons created by British specialists and improved by Ukrainian engineers and military. At the same time, the United Kingdom has significantly expanded existing training missions for the Ukrainian armed forces. Thus, it will not be in the least surprising if the Armed Forces of Ukraine soon become a full member of the Joint Expeditionary Forces. 

It is clear that even such an important Ukrainian-British agreement is not able to replace the membership of Ukraine in NATO or the EU, but it will be an important contribution in deepening the Euro-Atlantic integration of Ukraine into the NATO security space. And it will encourage other European countries to pay more attention to protecting and strengthening of Ukraine as an eastern outpost of European civilisation.

Today, the partners go further - the preparation of a 100-year partnership agreement between the UK and Ukraine is being completed. Due to lack of information it is still premature to make any assumptions about the future effectiveness of this agreement. However, it can be stated unequivocally: this is a step in the right direction both for Ukraine, in its desire for reliable security guarantees, and for the UK - as a confirmation of its leadership ambitions on the European continent and in the world.

Full text in Ukrainian HERE