Probably, the most common phrase of recent weeks was "Taiwan is not Ukraine", necessarily followed by the comparison of scenarios of the Chinese-Taiwanese conflict with Ukraine's struggle against the Russian aggression. Moreover, a common feature of the two specified conflicts is that both Ukraine and Taiwan, as democratic countries that historically chose freedom and independence, are fully supported by developed countries in their confrontation with two powerful authoritarian states.

The Russian aggression against Ukraine and the courageous struggle of the Ukrainian people have actualised discussions about the direction in which events around Taiwan will develop in the near future, and what consequences this will have for Taiwan and the world community. The visit of the Speaker of the US House of Representatives N. Pelosi to Taiwan aggravated the already controversial relations between China and the US. Many scenarios of the development of events admit a conflict not just between Taiwan and China, but rather between the United States and China. However, it seems doubtful that China will resort to open aggression, and the Ukrainian struggle warns China against such attempts. Several observations confirm our doubt that China will dare try a military invasion of Taiwan.

Stakes of the conflict. The USA has recently made a lot to strengthen the security system in various regions of the world. In addition to NATO, the AUKUS pact uniting Australia, Great Britain and the USA was announced in September 2021, aimed at strengthening security in Asia and Pacific, including neutralisation of China, making claims to Taiwan as part of its territory.

With the beginning of the Russian aggression, all developed countries, including AUKUS member states, resolutely supported Ukraine. The USA, Europe, the largest economies in Asia (Japan, South Korea, Singapore) and Australia quickly introduced sanctions against Russia, which gave China a signal how events will develop if China risks to forcibly annex Taiwan. Ukraine's tough resistance helped curb aggressive intentions and risks of confrontation in Southeast Asia.

Therefore, the US has significantly enhanced its political and diplomatic influence in Asia and Pacific, which strengthens the US capabilities of military counteraction to Chinese aggression against Taiwan. At the same time, the main losses of China and Taiwan (in the event of war) will be caused by the destruction of many critical technological chains, which may be critical for humanity. China is well aware of it and is unlikely to follow the Russian suit.

Given the above-mentioned allied support, one can only assume what sanctions will be imposed in the event of military escalation in the region. Although the statements of the Chinese leadership sound belligerent, China has been very carefully monitoring the effect of international sanctions against Russia and possible consequences for itself. According to a study by the RAND Corporation, one year of a war between the US and China will cost the US 5–10% of its GDP, while for China, this cost will be much higher — 25–35%.

In the event of an attack on Taiwan, the US will most likely be directly involved in the conflict. Japan may also be a "party to the conflict" and will support its allies by all means.

Economic dynamics. Political and military power is based on economic development. Taiwan managed to create the most advanced economy within a historically short period of time. When it comes to Taiwan's economic achievements, experts unanimously point to the global semiconductor manufacturer Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), whose stock value exceeds $600 billion. Today, the economy of Taiwan continues to grow steadily. Over the past thirty years, Taiwan has only twice experienced a drop in GDP.

Taiwan's GDP growth, % to the previous year	Taiwan's GDP in USD equivalent

Taiwan's per capita GDP is $33.8 thousand.

Although Taiwan and China are in a state of permanent confrontation, the economies of the two countries are strongly connected. Taiwan's exports to China are double those to the US.

Foreign trade of Taiwan by country and region, $ billion

Disruption of production and logistic chains for Taiwan will have a truly global effect and may turn even ardent allies away from China.

Financial risks of aggression. Analysis of consequences for Taiwan needs to be supplemented with critical risks for China, should the latter decide to invade. It is not even a matter of the Chinese banking system. The country's international reserves present an even more significant factor. Today, China's foreign exchange reserves are the world largest — about $3.1 trillion — and kept mainly in Western financial institutions. In case of sanctions, their freezing will be a heavy blow for China's banking and financial systems. The crisis will erase the decades of the Chinese "miracle".

Another factor, that is also critical for China and will bring crisis troubles, is presented by possible disconnection of its financial system from SWIFT, which will stop all foreign economic activity. China has been working hard to create an alternative global financial system in recent years to reduce such risks. However, this does not mean that other countries will abandon SWIFT and shift to the Chinese project.

Hence, from the economic perspective, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in the near future looks doubtful. Military aggression will not give China anything, except preservation of its political leadership, and even then it is not certain.

It is important for the democratic community, including Ukraine, to avert military threats from Taiwan. China will demonstrate its rationality (unlike Russia) in resolving international disputes, which will mean additional, albeit indirect, support for Ukraine.

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See the full article in Ukrainian at https://razumkov.org.ua/statti/taivan-ne-ukraina