Yuriy Yakymenko, Razumkov Centre President

Vasyl Yurchyshyn, Razumkov Centre Economic and Social Programmes Director

In the mid-2010s, global geopolitics was dominated by a number of seemingly unquestionable ideologemes regarding the world order and its immediate prospects. In particular, it was believed that:

• Euro-Atlantic solidarity is reliably protected by the US "security umbrella", which will continue to strengthen transatlantic political and economic ties;
• free trade, including in services, investments, new technologies, will involve more and more countries into its orbit, which will boost the incomes of transnational corporations and even of those countries that have always been on the periphery of world processes (but managed to adequately respond to the challenges of global competition);
• increasing interest of (investment-rich) China in European and American highly-consuming markets will contribute to the gradual penetration of liberal freedoms and democratic values in China;
• autocratic Russia will continue to gravitate to the Western way of life and material values, while increasingly losing economically to dynamic China. Therefore, the probability of a strategic rapprochement between technological China and resource-rich Russia was not seen as a threat to the established world order;
• the leading role of the USA for developed countries and ties of the emerging countries with China and India will form a sufficiently balanced bipolar model, which will make military confrontation at the global level next to impossible.

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https://razumkov.org.ua/statti/namiry-do-zblyzhennia-chy-gotovnist-do-roziednannia