Results of the  public opinion poll held by the Razumkov Centre Sociological Service on February 22 – March 1, 2023 within the frameworks of the MATRA Programme supported by the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in Ukraine. 

The opinions expressed are those of the authors only and should not be considered as representative of the Embassy’s official position.

The face-to-face poll was held in Vinnytsia, Volyn, Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Transcarpathian, Zaporizhia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Mykolayiv, Odesa, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Chernivtsi regions and the city of Kyiv (in Zaporizhia, Mykolayiv, Kharkiv, Kherson regions — only in the territories controlled by the government of Ukraine, free of hostilities).

The poll was conducted using a stratified multistage sample with random selection at the initial stages of sampling and quota selection of respondents at the final stage (when respondents were selected on the basis of gender and age quotas). The sample structure reproduced the demographic structure of the adult population of the territories where the poll was held as of the beginning of 2022 (by age, sex, settlement type).

2020 respondents over 18 years were polled. The sample theoretical error does not exceed 2.3%. At the same time, additional systemic deviations of the sample may be caused by the consequences of the Russian aggression, in particular, forced evacuation of millions of citizens.

Confidence in victory

93% of Ukrainians believe that Ukraine will win the war, and only 3.5% of those polled don’t think so. The opinion of Ukrainians about the victory has not changed since last August. The overwhelming majority of residents in all macroregions is convinced that Ukraine will win (83.5% of residents in the East, 91% in the South, and 96% — in the West and Centre). 9% of residents in the East, 3% of residents in the South, 2.5% — in the Centre, and 1% in the West of the country do not believe in Ukraine’s victory. Among those who mainly speak Ukrainian at home, 95% believes in victory, among those who speak Russian — 87%. Among those who trust Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, 96% believes in victory, among those who do not trust him — 78%.

Among those who believe in Ukraine’s victory, 50% believes that this victory will come before the end of 2023, 26% — that it will be achieved in 1–2 years, 7% — in 3–5 years, 1% — not earlier than in 5 years, and 0.4% — that it is unlikely to happen before they die.

What is the Ukrainian idea of a victory?

Ukrainians mainly see their victory as ousting the Russian troops from the entire territory of Ukraine and restoration of the border as of January 2014 (47% among those who believe in Ukraine’s victory), or defeat of the Russian army and an uprising in/collapse of Russia (31%). That said, the share of the latter increased, compared to last December (when it made 22%), and of the former — decreased (in December, it made 54%). Also, fewer people would suffice with the ousting of the Russian troops from the entire territory of Ukraine, except for occupied Crimea (their share fell from 8% to 4%).

According to the latest poll, 5% of those polled see the victory as the ousting of the Russian troops behind the line as of 23 February 2022, another 5% — as an end to the war, even if the Russian army holds territories seized after 24 February 2022.

The aggregate share of those who associate the victory with the restoration of the border as of January 2014 or defeat of the Russian army and an uprising/collapse there makes the overwhelming majority in all parts of the country (71% in the South, 76% in the East, 75% in the Centre and 86% in the West.

Respondents were asked if they would support a complete breach of all relations with the Russian Federation after Ukraine’s victory and liberation of its territory, up to a complete ban on the entry of Russians to Ukraine. While last August such a ban was supported by 76%, and not supported by 14%, according to the latest poll, the share of the former reached 82%, of the latter — decreased to 9.5%.

The share of those who would support it makes 94% in the West, 85% in the Centre, 75% in the East and 56% in the South. The share of opponents makes, respectively, 3%, 9.5%, 14% and 18%. A complete breach of relations with Russia is supported by 87% of those who speak Ukrainian at home, and 69% of those who speak Russian, not supported — by 7% and 17%, respectively.

Attitude to the possibility of negotiations with Russia

In September-October 2022, 17% saw negotiations with Russia as "an efficient way to achieve peace, which should be used right now", 64% disagreed with this. In February–March 2023, the share of those who believe so fell further (13%), of those who disagreed with this — rose to 72%.

Also, fewer people now agree that "negotiations with Russia should be waged only after its troops are pressed behind the line of contact as of 23 February 2022" (a decrease from 21% to 18%), and the number of those who disagreed with that rose from 60% to 65%. Meanwhile, more people now believe that "negotiations with Russia should be waged only after its troops are pressed (withdrawn) to the border of 1991" (57.5% and 61%, respectively, agreed with this), 22% and 21%, respectively, disagreed.

The opinion that negotiations with Russia may be started even now is somewhat more often shared by residents of the South (26%, in the other parts of the country — from 6% to 15%). In the South, a relative majority (46%) is against it (in the other parts of the country — an absolute majority: from 68% to 85%).

Similarly, Southerners more often than residents of the other regions tend to agree that negotiations with Russia may be started only after its troops are pressed behind the line of contact as of 23 February 2022" (28%, in the other regions — from 13% to 19%).

Those who believe that "negotiations with Russia should be waged only after its troops are pressed (withdrawn) to the border of 1991" are in the majority in all regions (from 56.5% in the South to 65% in the West).

Assessment of international assistance to Ukraine

The majority of respondents (58%) considers international humanitarian assistance to Ukraine in the war with Russia to be sufficient (insufficient — 27.5%). The majority (63.5%) also considers sufficient the international assistance in sheltering refugees (insufficient — 20%). These assessments actually did not change, compared to September-October 2022.

The assessment of the military-technical assistance as insufficient remained unchanged (this is the opinion of 69% of respondents, only 23% called it sufficient). Meanwhile, if in September-October 2022, a relative majority (45%) considered international political support to Ukraine insufficient (against 38%, who called it sufficient), now, a relative majority (49%) considers it sufficient (the opposite opinion is shared by 38% of those polled).

Attitude to accession to NATO

If a referendum on Ukraine’s accession to NATO were held in the near future, 74% of all those polled, or 87.5% of those who plan to take part in such a referendum, would vote for accession to the Alliance (8.5% and 5% would vote against it). In June, 2017, 48% of all those polled were ready to vote for accession to NATO, or 69.5% of those who planned to take part in the referendum (33% and 26%, respectively, would vote against it).

According to the latest poll, accession to NATO would be supported by 85% of all residents in the West, 77% — in the Centre, 65% of residents in the East and 54% of residents in the South. The share of those who would vote against it makes, respectively, 4%, 5%, 14% and 21%.

The younger the respondents are, the more often that plan to vote for accession to NATO — their share increases from 65% in the oldest age group (60 years and more) to 81% under 30 years.

Among those who trust President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, 79% plan to vote for accession to NATO (5.5% is against it), among those who don’t trust him — respectively, 45.5% and 25.5%.

Among those who mainly speak Ukrainian at home, 78% plans to vote for accession to NATO (6.5% is against it), among those who mainly speak Russian — respectively, 64% and 14%.

Sources of information about the war

Answering the question from what sources and how often they obtain information about the war, respondents mostly say that they "permanently" obtain information from relatives, friends, neighbours, colleagues, acquaintances (48%), from messengers (Viber, Telegram, WhatsApp, etc. — 47%), social networks (Facebook, TikTok, Instagram, Twitter, etc. — 44%), Youtube (42%).

Among the mass media, people the most often mentioned TV Marathon "United News" (27.5%) and Ukrainian Internet media (26%). 17% mentioned other news reports by Ukrainian national TV channels and local Internet media, 11% each — radio and local television, 9.5% — foreign media, 6% — local printed periodicals, 5% — Ukrainian national printed periodicals.

Residents of the East more rarely than in the other regions said that they permanently obtained news about the war from the TV Marathon "United News" (20%, in the other regions — from 28% to 33%), of the South — that they permanently obtained news from the Ukrainian Internet (17%, in the other regions — from 24% to 30%).

Residents of the South and East also more rarely than residents of the West and Centre obtain news from radio, local television, Ukrainian national and local printed periodicals, Ukrainian national TV channels. Instead, the Southerners more often obtain news from social networks (57% reported that they obtained it permanently, in the other regions — from 39% to 46%).

The older the respondents are, the more often they obtain news about the war from the TV Marathon "United News" (their share increases from 11.5% in the age of 18 to 29 years to 47% in the age of 60 years and more). The same refers to other Ukrainian national TV channels (respectively, 6.5% and 28%), local TV (7.5% and 18%), radio (5% and 17%).

Instead, younger respondents more often reported that they permanently obtained information about the war from messengers (their share increases from 23% in the oldest age group to 63% in the youngest one), Youtube (respectively, 23% and 56%), social networks (respectively, 21.5% and 65%), Ukrainian national Internet media (respectively, 17% and 30%), local Internet media (respectively, 13% and 20%), foreign media (respectively, 6% and 11%).

Respondents who speak Russian at home more rarely than Ukrainian-speakers obtain information from all media without exception (TV channels, printed and Internet media, Ukrainian national, local and foreign alike), and more often — from social networks, messengers, Youtube.

POLL RESULTS IN TABLES

(data in the tables are given as percentages)

Do you believe in Ukraine’s victory in the war with Russia?

When do you think the victory will come?, % among those polled who believe Ukraine’s victory

What would you see as the victory in the war?, % among those polled who believe Ukraine’s victory

Do you support a complete breach of all relations with the Russian Federation, up to a complete ban on entry of Russians to Ukraine, after Ukraine’s victory and liberation of its territories?

There are different opinions about negotiations with Russia. With which of the following statements do you tend to agree?

How would you assess international assistance to Ukraine in the war with Russia?

How would you vote, should you take part in a referendum on accession to NATO?

How often do you obtain information about the war from each of the following sources?

https://razumkov.org.ua/napriamky/sotsiologichni-doslidzhennia/gromadska-dumka-pro-viinu-peremogu-ta-garantii-bezpeky-liutyi-berezen-2023r