By the end of 2018 in Ukraine a slight devaluation of the hryvnia may occur at the inflation rate — to just over 29 hryvnias to the dollar, but with the condition that by the end of this year the rate will remain at the level of 27 hryvnia to the dollar. Director of the economic and social programs at the Razumkov Centre Vasyl Yurchyshyn gave a comment to the UNN media.

“Ukrainian economy remains weak. If we look at the dynamics, after the fall of 15–17% during 2014–2015, 2% of the economic growth this year and possibly the next year (according to the government forecasts) is still very low rate. Especially while comparing with other successful countries there was no such a sharp decline in economic growth, but the economies of these countries still grow by 3–4%. Unfortunately, the Ukrainian economy remains weak and the government, not seeing or not knowing what instruments can accelerate it, leaves Ukraine in such a sever condition that is severely weakened condition. This is not a factor of strengthening of hryvnia”, — he said.

According to V. Yurchyshyn, the Ukrainian economy remains weakly competitive. However, current account deficit has decreased to some extent, but it remains scarce.

“Until now, however, the investment doesn’t have a tendency to a rapid influx into Ukraine. The current account deficit may be negative if there is a financing. Since investment do not come, the issue of financing remains open. Non-investment is always a signal for international investors, that something is wrong. In such conditions the national currency is rather weakened than will be strengthened”, — the expert explained.

Another factor influencing the currency rate is the state debt and its servicing.

In 2018 and especially in 2019, we have huge external payments. Now the Ukrainian government is trying to enter international markets, but it is unclear whether it will succeed and how well it will be. For the budgeting unpredictable scenarios should be treated with the cautious. In my opinion, the government seriously took into account the foreign debt factor. While the foreign debt is significant, this is again a factor of weakening the national currency”, — V. Yurchyshyn suggests.
According to the expert, perhaps the most important factor influencing the hryvnia rate may be politicization of some government decisions.

“Upcoming 1–2 years Ukraine will be in a state of different types of elections. It means a sharp increase in populism, a sharp politicization of economic decisions, an increase of uncertainty associated with the different political and populist conditions”, — he said.
“This is probably one of the most important factors, why it’s not appropriate to talk about strengthening of the hryvnia today. At the same time I do not expect significant changes in the hryvnia exchange rate, as all of these risks can be minimized due to a rational policy. Since the economy remains weak, then it is appropriate that the weak devaluation is somewhere around the level of inflation. In such conditions the real currency rate will remain constant, and it will supports export, somewhat restrain import and provide the competitive stability, which Ukraine urgently needs. So, the weak devaluation at the level of inflation is a positive dynamics. Regarding figures, provided that this year we will stay within the limits of 27 UAH for 1 USD, by the end of the next year we will see 29 UAH per 1 USD. It shouldn’t pose great risks to the economic environment”, — V. Yurchyshyn summed up.