This Winter's Hryvnia Exchange Rate

November 30, 2017
Expert Comments

In a month, the national currency cheapened 1.3% against dollar, according to the official exchange rate. For the first time since April this year, hryvnia's exchange rate fell below 27 UAH. In this case, first of all, we need to remember the seasonal factor, which affects the exchange rate each year. This includes a number of factors related to a large amount of payments in the end of December: rewards, bonuses, "thirteenth salaries", pension increases, etc.

In the second half of January — first half of February, this tendency for hryvnia's devaluation can become even stronger. It is possible that we will have an exchange rate of 30 UAH per 1 USD.

But then, especially in March and April, hryvnia will start gaining ground. This is also a seasonal change. As a rule, in spring and summer, the national currency feels better than in the autumn-winter period. So after the January-February depreciation to 30-31 UAH/1 USD, I think, the exchange rate will go back to 28–28.5.


Vasyl Yurchyshyn

Director, Economic Programmes

Born in 1955 in Kamyanets-Podilskyi.

Education:

T. Shevchenko Kyiv State University, Department of Cybernetics (1977).

Institute of Public Administration and Local Government at the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine (1994).

Professor in Public Administration. Author of nearly 100 scientific works.

Employment:

In 1977–1993, worked at the Kyiv University as an engineer, research fellow and senior research fellow;

1994–1999 — head economic researcher at the International Centre for Policy Studies, Fund for Banking and Finance Development;

1999–2004 — Assistant Professor, Department of Economic Policy of the Ukrainian (currently, National) Academy of Public Administration, office of the President of Ukraine;

1999–2004 — Research Director at the Agency of Humanitarian Technologies, later — Agency for Social Analysis;

2002–2003 — advisor to the Minister of Economy of Ukraine;

since April, 2004 — Professor, Department of Economic Policy of the National Academy of Public Administration, office of the President of Ukraine;

since June, 2005 — Economic Programmes Director at Razumkov Centre.

(044) 201-11-90

yurchyshyn@razumkov.org.ua

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