Analysing the dynamics of hryvnia's exchange rate, we can see that in the past two years, its devaluation was happening starting in the second half of December till early February. In February, the dynamic changed its direction, and hryvnia gradually became stronger, and this trend intensified in the spring-summer period. This is foremost connected with imports of energy, the need for which considerably reduces in spring.
This year, we also observed this seasonal fluctuation. It was connected with the return of export revenues, as well as some improvement in external commodity markets. Also important is that this year the panic sentiment among the population was much less apparent.
There are two event scenarios in the nearest future: calming of foreign exchange markets with slight fluctuations or slight hryvnia appreciation.
