Putin does not have enough forces for all sectors, he has to reshuffle his troops.
Despite the success of the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the front, thanks to efficient HIMARS strikes at enemy depots and military bases, it is still too early to talk about a change of the situation on the battlefields.
Russia still has enough reserves. Reserves are running out, but nevertheless, there is plenty of cannon fodder, artillery and ammunitions. It uses them to scare us. It also has enough missiles, subject to disposal due to the expiry of their shelf life. This is how Russia will try to break us.
The arrival of HIMARS MLRS in Ukraine, along with the first MLRS 270 announced by Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov (a tracked version HIMARS), is a serious move. It will give us an opportunity to hit the enemy at the depth of up to 50 kilometres. Their range is 80 km, however, they fire not from the front line but from a distance of 15–20 km in the rear, so as not to be hit by the enemy artillery.
Destruction of enemy depots makes it difficult to achieve the goals Putin wants to achieve. Destruction of depots means destruction of ammunitions Russia plans to use to attack us. Many say, why don’t the Armed Forces attack the artillery? Well, let's say, a battery of howitzers fires 100 shells per day, there are thousands of them at depots. We destroy several batteries (up to 10) with such strikes. Therefore, strikes are delivered at logistic centres, depots, command posts, railway junctions, and troop concentrations.
All this not only plays into our hands by destroying manpower and equipment but also sows panic in the enemy ranks. However, delivering such strikes, we do not counterattack — we prepare the conditions for reversal of the situation and transition to a counteroffensive.
The tactics of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is as follows: to constantly put pressure on the enemy in order not to allow it to entrench, not to give him a rest, and again, to sow panic in his ranks. This is what the Ukrainian army is successfully doing in the south.
Putin does not have enough forces for all sectors, he has to reshuffle his troops. This was the case with Melitopol, from where Russian troops and equipment were sent to the eastern front – only defensive barriers remained there.
However, the Ukrainian army is gradually pushing the enemy out, but not like the Russians — with a wall of fire. After all, our citizens live on this territory, so we cannot act the same way as Russia. We carry out pinpoint strikes on military targets and achieve the desired results.
For the time being, the Russian offensive in Donbas has stopped. This happened due to the pause announced by Putin because of the lack of forces in Russia caused, in particular, by the Ukrainian army strikes at enemy depots.
The problem is as follows. Russian troops actively use howitzers, which require ammunitions and barrels. Taking into account the intense enemy firing in the east, they are already running out of barrels, which require replacement. If they are not replaced, the accuracy and range will fall. And if you wait a little longer, their reliability also falls. Eventually, they may just explode. Therefore, the Russians already have to withdraw part of their artillery for maintenance in order to somehow restore their technical condition.
According to confirmed data, Russia is preparing the 3rd Army Corps. About 18 battalions — 6 tank and 12 motorised infantry — are expected to arrive. That is a pretty strong fist.
However, not everything is so simple. Old weapons will be used to arm new units, trained for about a month. They will have second-grade personnel, that is, not the same soldiers who were there at the beginning of the war, when Russia threw all the best into Ukraine.
However, we should not rest on laurels – Russia will have something to shoot, and we must get ready for the arrival of new enemy forces at the battlefield.
In addition, it is necessary to take into account the fact that the Belarusian sector arouses concern and uncertainty. I tend to believe that the probability of using the Belarusian army will gradually increase. There is a risk that Lukashenko will still move his troops.
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