Post-Election Russia: D-Day for Ukraine

March 19, 2018

We can assume that Kremlin's policy in regard to Ukraine during Putin's next term in office will entail: a) traditional categorical refusal to review the topic of annexed Crimea in any form; b) keeping the situation in Donbas in the frozen state "neither war, nor peace" and imitating peace initiatives while asserting clearly unacceptable demands; c) preparing and creating conditions for a large-scale hybrid attack on the D-Day — the period of election campaign in Ukraine (and later, parliamentary).

There are reasons to believe that in late 2018 – early 2019, Russia will launch a campaign of integrated, targeted and large-scale measures for interfering with Ukraine's elections. As opposed to the US or France, Kremlin has a much larger and more efficient set of influence instruments in regard to Ukraine.

Obviously, the key directions of Russia's pre-election expansion will be:

  • Erosion and destabilisation of domestic political situation through persistent information sabotage and provocations. Instigating separatist sentiment in regions. Massive cyber-attacks (which already happened on numerous occasions) against key infrastructure objects, — administrative, energy, banking, transport.
  • Political, informational, financial support of pro-Russian political forces, media, civic organisations, religious structures, and individual activists. Facilitating the expansion of their presence in the information field.
  • Launching an information campaign in the Ukrainian media space, social networks aimed at discrediting Ukrainian government, country's pro-European and Euroatlantic course, domestic reforms. Implanting the "Russian World" values and meanings into social consciousness.

Mykhailo Pashkov

Co-Director, Foreign Relations and International Security Programmes

Born in 1958 in Roslavl, Smolensk oblast, Russia


Smolensk Institute of Pedagogy, Faculty of the Russian Language and Literature (1979)

Moscow Institute of Youth, Faculty of Journalism (1986)

Kyiv Institute of Political Science and Public Administration (1991)

Ph. D. in Philosophy; the author of more than 50 publications

1979 – 1989 — worked at different positions in district, regional and republican newspapers in Russia and Moldova

1991 – 1994 — worked in scientific institutions of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine

1994 – 1998 — Diplomatic Service at the Embassy of Ukraine in the Russian Federation

Since December 1999 — Razumkov Centre's Leading Expert

Diplomatic Rank: First Secretary. Most recent position in state structures — Chief Consultant, Analytical Service of Ukraine's NSDC Staff

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