Brexit: Evidences of Neutrality?

It will soon be a year since the important decision of UK's withdrawal from the EU has been approved. Without denying the risks and challenges of this geostrategic choice, it seems so far that the risks and losses for partner countries have not been confirmed and look rather exaggerated. Let us look specifically at some macroeconomic evidence of Brexit's neutral impact on EU economies.

First of all, let us say that for the past 5 years, UK's economic growth rate was significantly higher than the corresponding rates of major continental European economies. Also, UK's economy became second largest economy in the EU (ahead of France), reaching €2.58 trillion in 2015 (almost $2.9 trillion) (Germany — over €3.0 trillion or approximately $3.4 trillion) (Chart "Nominal GDP"). Despite some weakening of the pound in 2016, the nominal GDP has not changed greatly, and thus the overall balance of value of major European economies has remained unchanged.1 Accordingly, in the post-crisis period, the UK GDP per capita, PPP, has significantly grown compared to other eurozone countries (Chart "GDP per capita, PPP "). So there is reason to believe that the balance will remain in med-term.

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Vasyl Yurchyshyn

Director, Economic Programmes

Born in 1955 in Kamyanets-Podilskyi.


T. Shevchenko Kyiv State University, Department of Cybernetics (1977).

Institute of Public Administration and Local Government at the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine (1994).

Professor in Public Administration. Author of nearly 100 scientific works.


In 1977–1993, worked at the Kyiv University as an engineer, research fellow and senior research fellow;

1994–1999 — head economic researcher at the International Centre for Policy Studies, Fund for Banking and Finance Development;

1999–2004 — Assistant Professor, Department of Economic Policy of the Ukrainian (currently, National) Academy of Public Administration, office of the President of Ukraine;

1999–2004 — Research Director at the Agency of Humanitarian Technologies, later — Agency for Social Analysis;

2002–2003 — advisor to the Minister of Economy of Ukraine;

since April, 2004 — Professor, Department of Economic Policy of the National Academy of Public Administration, office of the President of Ukraine;

since June, 2005 — Economic Programmes Director at Razumkov Centre.

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