"They Will Once Again Put On the Militants' Uniforms". Military Experts Described Possible Scenarios of Russia’s attack on the Donbas

April 23, 2021

Ukrainian and Western military experts interviewed by the Novoye Vremya (New Time) magazine consider unlikely any full-scale military action linked to the concentration of Russian troops. However, they came up with several scenarios of the Kremlin’s possible operation.

The first scenario
was presented by Mykola Sunhurovskyi, the Director of Military Programmes of the Razumkov Centre. Russia, referring to “aggressive actions by the Ukrainian military”, such as recent reports about a boy allegedly killed in the Donbas by a Ukrainian drone, declares that it needs to protect residents of “republics”, many of whom have received Russian passports. Therefore, it brings additional “peacekeeping” troops in ORDLO, starting the offensive.

As the Kremlin is aware of the relatively high level of Ukrainian troops’ combat readiness and seeks to avoid losses, the operation should last for no more than one week. Its goal is to gain control over the entire territory of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. The operation may be accompanied by local Russian strikes in the Crimean direction in order to reach the dam blocking the North Crimean Canal, says Mr Sunhurovskyi.

Mykola Sunhurovskyi

Director, Military Programmes

Born in 1951 in Moscow.


Orenburg Higher Military Air Defence Forces School (1972);

Kyiv Air Defence Forces Academy (1982);

Higher School of Entrepreneurship, Kyiv Institute of National Economy (1991).

Ph. D. in Technical Sciences, Senior Research Fellow, the author of more than 90 publications.

Colonel (Ret.) with 31 years of military service, half of that term — at research institutions. Research profile — systems analysis, strategic planning, analysis methods, national security.


Most recent position in state bodies — Department Chief at the Analytical Service of Ukraine's NSDC Staff;

Since December 1999 — Razumkov Centre Programme Co-ordinator;

Since February 2000 — Freelance Consultant to the National Security and Defence Committee of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine.

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