The planned increase in the excise duty in the current economic and regulatory conditions in Ukraine and on the world oil market formally creates prerequisites for an increase in motor fuel prices. The potential impact is estimated as follows: A-95 — about +1.7 UAH/l, diesel fuel — +2.3 UAH/l, LPG (autogas) — +1.5 UAH/l. This is the third increase in excise duty, starting from 2024. In total, in 2024–2026, the excise burden increased: on LPG — almost four times, on diesel fuel — by 83%, on A-95 gasoline — by 40%.
At the same time, the current level of the retail margin, especially in the premium segment of gasoline and diesel stations, together with the trend to a decrease in the world oil prices, gives us grounds to state: in presence of an efficient state policy, consumer prices would not rise, actually. This is not about administrative price restrictions, but about an efficient antitrust policy, which is actually absent today.
Since the beginning of the full-scale aggression, fuel prices have sky-rocketed: A-95 — from 34 to 58 UAH/l (+70%), diesel fuel — from 32 to 58 UAH/l (+81%), LPG — from 19 to 38 UAH/l (+100%).
At the same time, the average price of Brent from February 2022 to December 2025 fell from 97 to 61 USD/barrel (–37%). European quotations for Euro-5 gasoline and diesel fuel on a CIF Med basis fell by 31% and 24%, respectively, during this period. The dollar to hryvnia exchange rate increased by 41%, euro — by 48%.
Calculations show that due to the combined impact of the key factors, prices should have increased much less than they actually did: for diesel fuel — by about 16%, while the market recorded almost +70%; for A-95 — by about 42% against the actual +71%; for LPG — by about 76% against almost +99%.
Such excessive price pressure on consumers during the war stems from a combination of the conscious governmental tax policy and strengthening of the market grip of premium gas station chains against the backdrop of the antitrust regulation failure. An additional factor is presented by advance payments, which are pressing small and medium businesses out of the retail market, increasing concentration and reducing competition.
The increase in excise duties is explained by the requirements of European integration. However, the tax burden on fuel and market concentration in the premium segment are among the key drivers of the increase in the price of food, industrial goods and services. Given that Ukrainians' incomes are many times lower than Europeans', the mechanical transfer of the European tax model looks socially risky.
In January 2026, VAT and excise duty in the price of fuel will make about 42% for diesel fuel, 44% for gasoline, 47% for LPG. At a price of 63 UAH/l for premium A-95, the consumer will pay to the state almost 28 UAH/l in taxes. The retail margin should be taken into account separately: in premium chains, it averaged 10–12 UAH/l in 2025 and was overpriced by at least 5 UAH/l due to the market grip.
What needs to be done to really protect consumer rights:
1. Institutional resetting of the antimonopoly policy
The Antimonopoly Committee should shift from formal reaction to systematic ex ante control of the fuel market.
Ex ante control of the fuel market means preventive state monitoring, where the market is subject to constant review and intervention before price surges and abuses, not after the consumer has overpaid.
It covers the following lines:
- regular monitoring of concentration, margins and pricing behaviour of chains;
- identification and public recognition of the dominant position of individual operators;
- inevitability of fines for concerted actions and abuse of the market grip.
2. Elimination of regulatory barriers for small and medium businesses
Abolition of advance payments and other discriminatory requirements that give financial advantages to large chains and accelerate market concentration. This directly influences competition and restrains price increases.
3. Transparency in the fuel market pricing
Creation of a mechanism for public monitoring of the retail price structure (taxes, purchase price, logistics, margin). Transparency limits the possibilities for inflated margins without administrative intervention in prices.
4. Adjustment of the tax policy taking into account consumer solvency
Shift from a mechanical increase in excise duties to an adaptive tax model with account of household incomes, the economic situation and wartime conditions. This will reduce the inflationary effect without losing budget stability.
5. Encouragement of competition
Promotion of small and medium gas station chains through:
- simplified access to infrastructure and imports;
- non-discriminatory logistics and storage;
- equal regulatory rules for all market segments.
Competition, not administrative regulation, is the most efficient and sustainable tool for consumer protection.
Protection of consumer rights in the fuel market involves restoration of the balance between taxes, competition and market behaviour of operators. Without systemic changes in the regulatory and antitrust policy, any increase in excise taxes will automatically bring additional pressure on citizens.
