When you are told that motor fuel prices at petrol stations are rising due to rising oil prices on world markets, this is not always true. In many cases, this means nothing but an increase in the retail margin at the expense of consumers, mainly to the benefit of big chains.

Indeed, over the past two months, prices of regular A-95 at Ukrainian petrol stations increased by 2.8 UAH/l, and the margin rose by 78% since the beginning of February alone. At the same time, the average price in the premium segment is on average more than 5 UAH/l higher than at discounters in Ukraine. So, maybe the fight with the "grey market" started by administrative pressure on small and medium businesses, in reality is waged for the market share and margin, not for the interests of consumers?

The last two months of growth in retail fuel prices are explained by the global situation. Indeed, oil prices and the exchange rate influence the import costs. However, analysis of internal indicators shows that along with external factors, the dynamics of the trade margin plays a decisive role. Let us take a look at the figures.

Retail segment: what the consumer sees 

As of February 17, 2026, the average price of A-95 gasoline is 61.00 UAH/l. Since the beginning of the year, it rose by 2.77 UAH (+4.75%).

Diesel fuel — 60.62 UAH/l, an increase of 2.39 UAH (+4.10%).

Liquefied gas — 38.34 UAH/l, an increase of 0.83 UAH (+2.22%).

Let me remind you that excise rates increased from January 1. According to preliminary calculations, this could add to the price:

of A-95 gasoline: +1.7 UAH/l,

of diesel fuel: +2.3 UAH/l,

of LPG: +1.5 UAH/l.

That is, the prices increased more than expected: for A-95 gasoline — by 1 UAH/l, for diesel fuel — nil, for liquefied gas, the price rose less than expected — by 0.67 UAH/l.

Wholesale segment: what the market sees

Experts tell us about growing oil prices.

Brent quotes are currently $67.02/bbl — an increase of $5.50 (+8.94%) since the year beginning. But between the commodity exchange and the Ukrainian gasoline stand lies a long chain of processing, logistics and trade.

In our opinion, it is more appropriate to analyze pricing using wholesale prices of the domestic market, which are shaped not only by global trends in oil quotations but by many other factors, such as European quotations, logistics, available stocks, exchange rate fluctuations, lag, demand, market competition, etc. Here, the situation looks a bit different.

The current wholesale price of A-95 is 51.45 UAH/l, and since the beginning of this year it changed by only +0.35 UAH (+0.68%); of diesel fuel — 50.55 UAH/l, a change of +3.77 UAH (+8.07%); for liquefied gas, the current price is 33.85 UAH/l — the same as at the year beginning.

That is, there are no factors driving fuel prices up at petrol stations, from the viewpoint of domestic purchase prices. Diesel fuel seems the only exception, but there are nuances with it. The thing is that before the excise tax increase, it was imported in such quantities that the wholesale price collapsed. That is, part of the current increase may be seen as the recovery of wholesale prices after the December drop. For example, in the first two days of December, the wholesale price fell by 4 hryvnias, reaching 46 UAH/l. Since then, the wholesale diesel fuel market has been gradually recovering from this excess supply, with the price going up. If we compare the current wholesale prices with the beginning of December 2025, we will see that they are almost the same. That is, the increase in diesel fuel prices is a weak argument for retail trade from this point of view.

One may assume that operating costs at petrol stations have increased, but we have not found any confirmation of this.

Currency and risks

The hryvnia exchange rate has somewhat weakened, indeed:

• against euro — from 49.55 to 51.16 UAH (+1.61 UAH),
• against USD — from 42.35 to 43.17 UAH (+0.82 UAH).

However, the currency component is primarily reflected in wholesale prices, which have already absorbed these changes. Currently, the market is not demonstrating any additional risk factors, such as logistical failures or blockages.

One may assume that some new risk component has appeared in the supply of fuel, such as the frozen Rhine, or blockade of borders with Ukraine in fuel-producing countries. But such components that could affect the retail segment are not visible. In addition, this would also be reflected primarily in the wholesale segment, but this is not the case — wholesale prices for diesel fuel, especially high-octane, are decreasing, while liquefied gas remains stable.

Margin: the key indicator

The difference between retail and wholesale prices makes:

• for gasoline — 9.55 UAH/l (0.65 UAH more than in December),
• for diesel fuel — 10.07 UAH/l (1.69 UAH more),
• for LPG — 4.49 UAH/l (1.30 UAH more).

Given the short lag in the wholesale segment’s reaction, the long-term growth of retail margins looks like a structural rather than a temporary phenomenon. At the same time, big chains often act as importers, which gives them additional profitability at the early stages of the supply chain.

Conclusions 

Further price dynamics will depend on three main factors:

1) world oil prices;

2) exchange rate stability;

3) competition among petrol station chains.

The key issue is not so much in the fact of growth itself, but in the transparency of margins and the degree of competitive pressure in the retail market. If competition does not intensify, the current level of the trade mark-up may become rooted, as the new basis for pricing — even without additional external shocks.

In this case, the consumers will continue to pay not only for the global situation but also for the poor internal market structure, which is unacceptable in the conditions of a full-scale war.

https://razumkov.org.ua/komentari/chy-povynni-zrostaty-tsiny-na-azs-u-potochnii-rynkovii-sytuatsii