Firstly, the capacity deficit in the power system has been reduced from 7,000 MW in January to 800-1,000 MW in early March, primarily thanks to warming and higher efficiency of solar power plants in spring. Secondly, warming made it possible to reduce electricity consumption. Thirdly, up to 30% of damaged capacities have been restored. Fourthly, there is a surplus both during the day and at night. Fifthly, the United Power System of Ukraine still cannot accumulate electricity during surplus hours in sufficient volumes, using energy storage plants.
The first deliveries after the resumption of exports were symbolic. For example, on March 6, the Cube Energy company exported about 12 MW of electricity. In the coming days, the volumes may change, depending on the system balance. Say, according to preliminary plans, Ukrhydroenergo may export approximately 180-200 MW on Monday.
The decision on the possibility to export electricity is made by the NPC Ukrenergo system operator with account of the operational safety of the power system. Export is allowed only when electricity production exceeds domestic consumption. If the situation in the power system changes, exports may be promptly reduced or completely stopped. The surplus of electricity is most often observed in daytime, due to seasonal factors – spring floods, increasing the output of hydroelectric power plants, and generation growth at solar power plant. In sunny days, the volume of solar generation may exceed the needs of the system. During such hours, the operator has to limit generation, sometimes – significantly.
Electricity surplus can also occur at night, when electricity consumption decreases thanks to warming. In such situations, export makes it possible to balance the power system and use excess electricity. Simultaneous import and export of electricity is a normal practice for integrated power systems. Ukraine operates synchronously with the European ENTSO-E power system, so the exchange of electricity can occur at different times and in different directions.
For example, during the day, when there is a surplus of solar generation, it may be exported, while in the evening peak hours import may be required. Export is also important for the economy. If generation has to be limited, power plants lose output and income. Export means the use of excess electricity and additional funds for energy companies. These funds are used to repair equipment, restore infrastructure after Russian attacks, and prepare for the next heating season.
Export and deficit in Odesa region
However, a logical question arises: how can electricity exports be resumed, if there is a deficit in some regions? We are talking about Odesa region. Unfortunately, even with an occasional surplus, there is no technical possibility to transmit the required volumes due to damaged substations now, as the enemy insistently tries to separate this region from the United Energy System of Ukraine.
In addition to attacks on generation facilities, the enemy is attacking main and interstate 750 kV, 330 kV and 220 kV high-voltage networks of NPC Ukrenergo, which transmit electricity from generation facilities to the grid of the distribution system operator in each region. There is not a single intact Ukrenergo substation in Odesa region.
The damage to main substations in the region is colossal – instead of the required 11 power transformers, only 4 are operational. At some facilities, relay protection has been completely destroyed and switchgear damaged significantly, their restoration may take months, if not years.
After the attacks on Ukrenergo substations in Odesa region in 2022-2024, the enemy changed tactics and in 2025 began to target also 110 kV distribution substations of DTEK Odesa grids.
Since last fall and till now, the enemy has destroyed 34 large 110 kV substations, i.e. 45%. Some energy facilities were attacked 2, 3 and 4 times. The lion's share of damaged substations is located in Odesa and its suburbs. Therefore, the regional distribution company, DTEK, still has to limit consumers in the region in accordance with the limits set by Ukrenergo and due to distribution problems. In this case, stoppage of exports will not help, until transmission and distribution capacities are restored.
