The Ukrainian government is considering several military scenarios and believes that Russia’s attack on Ukraine is very probable. Moreover, the Russian army can approach the Ukrainian borders from almost any direction. How likely is such a direct attack and where is the greatest concentration of Russian troops now? How can an open conflict be avoided? This is what the Nastoyaschee Vremya (Present Time) TV channel, created by Radio Liberty in collaboration with the Voice of America was trying to clarify with Ukrainian and foreign experts.

Mykola Sunhurovskyi, the Director of Military Programmes of the Razumkov Centre, claims that Russia does deploy quite a force to the Black Sea region and the occupied Crimean Peninsula, including some 50 warships of various classes, 230 tanks, assault brigades. Russia has indirectly confirmed the transfer of troops to Crimea, advising the United States to “stay away” from the annexed peninsula.

“In one landing operation from the sea, these forces will be able to bring forward about ten battalion assault groups — a very strong force”, continues Mr Sunhurovskyi. “You may also add the forces of the Caspian flotilla and three large landing ships from the Baltics that are on the way here”.

However, restoring water supply for Crimea is by no means an end in itself for Russia. According to the expert, the significant troops build-up near the Ukrainian borders is a political pressure to force Kyiv to refuse the EU and NATO membership.

The expert further assumes that if the Kremlin fails to intimidate Ukraine with military force, one can expect provocations in several Ukrainian regions:

“He [Putin] cannot demonstrate his weakness, especially ahead of the election. He needs a quick and victorious war”, explains Mykola Singurovsky the possible logic of the Russian leader. “The attack will unfold from several directions. They will try to stretch our defences to the south, to the north, to the east, to the west, including in Transnistria”.