The way how events in the Sea of Azov will unfold is only one fragment of the political landscape. Without a doubt, Putin has far-reaching strategic goals. Heightening of tensions in some regions are ad hoc steps, and by upping the ante in the Azov Putin wants to cut Ukraine's exports capacities. This will certainly displease companies operating in Mariupol. In other words, we are talking about intensification of the internal political situation in this region and in Ukraine as a whole.

This is his tactics — to create both external and internal pressure. He sees his adversary’s weaknesses and tries to distribute resources in rather rational manner. Russian troops of 80 thousand men are located along the Ukrainian border; there are additional groups in the Crimea and in Transnistria. If necessary, sleeper cells inside Ukraine will wake up; and not forget the Belarusian border. In other words, we are surrounded on all sides. Those who doubt that Belarus can support such actions, I assure you — this will be their first gift to Putin. The foundation there has been laid, and Lukashenko is no particular obstruction for Putin.

These acute situations in some regions form the general picture. Putin’s main goal is not to destroy Ukraine, as it is simply impossible, but to turn it into its satellite, not allowing Ukraine to join the EU and NATO.

It is difficult to predict Putin's strategy ahead of the Ukrainian elections. "His people" in Ukraine clearly report what is happening. As he keeps track of all political movements, he may trigger escalation if necessary. Everything depends on his decision. Therefore, it is pointless to say: let us not provoke him in the Sea of Azov. Whenever he needs it, he will "provoke" himself.

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