Assessment of the situation in the country, trust in social institutes, politicians, officials and public figures, attitude to elections, belief in victory (June, 2024)

Results of a public opinion poll conducted by the Razumkov Center Sociological Service on June 6–12, 2024, as part of its project implemented under the USAID/ENGAGE activity, which is funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and implemented by Pact. The contents of this survey are the sole responsibility of Pact and its implementing partners and do not necessary reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.

The face-to-face poll was conducted in Vinnytsia, Volyn, Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Transcarpathian, Zaporizhia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Mykolayiv, Odesa, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Kharkiv, Kherson, Khmelnytsky, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Chernivtsi regions and the city of Kyiv (in Zaporizhia, Mykolayiv, Kharkiv, Kherson regions — only in the territories controlled by the government of Ukraine and free of hostilities).

The poll was conducted using stratified multistage sampling with random selection at the first stages of sampling and quota selection of respondents at the final stage (when respondents were selected on the basis of gender and age quotas). The sample structure reproduces the demographic structure of the adult population of the territories where the poll was conducted as of the beginning of 2022 (by age, sex, settlement type).

2016 respondents over the age of 18 were polled. The sample theoretical error does not exceed 2.3%. At the same time, additional systematic deviations of the sample may be caused by the consequences of Russian aggression, in particular, forced evacuation of millions of citizens.


Assessment of the situation in the country and social well-being of citizens

After the start of Russia's full-scale aggression against Ukraine, the share of citizens who believe that events in Ukraine were developing in the right direction has increased significantly (from 20% in December 2021 to 51% in September–October 2022), reaching maximum in February–March 2023 (61%). According to the latest poll, the share of those who believe that events in Ukraine are developing in the right direction is smaller than the share of those who hold the opinion that they are developing in a wrong direction (33% and 47%, respectively), but their ratio still remains better than before the start of the full-scale war (20% and 65.5%, respectively, in December 2021).

29% of Ukrainians believe that Ukraine can overcome the existing problems and difficulties in the next few years, 46% believe that Ukraine will be able to overcome problems in a longer term, and 11% don’t believe that Ukraine can overcome the existing problems (the rest are undecided). Ukrainians the most optimistically assessed the prospects for overcoming problems and difficulties at the end of 2022 — beginning of 2023 (for example, in February–March 2023 — 49%, 36%, and 3%, respectively). The assessments before the start of the full-scale war were much more pessimistic (in December 2021 — 18%, 54%, and 18%, respectively).


Satisfaction with life

The level of life satisfaction of Ukrainian citizens increased over the decade preceding the full-scale war and was higher in 2017 and 2022 than in 2011 (respectively, 5.1, 5.2 and 4.5 points on a scale from 1 to 10, where "1" means that the respondent is "absolutely dissatisfied", "10" — "fully satisfied" with his life). In January 2024, compared to 2022, this indicator fell to 4.7, in June 2024 it remained approximately the same as in January 2024 — 4.8 points.

The level of life satisfaction is higher in the Western regions (5.5 points), lower — in the South (3.9 points); in the Eastern and Central regions it makes 4.4 and 4.7 points, respectively. The feeling of satisfaction with life decreases with the respondent’s age (from 5.7 points among those under 30 years to 4.1 points among those who are 60 years and older). The higher the well-being of respondents is, the more satisfied they are with their life (satisfaction increases from 3.9 points among those who do not have enough money for food to 6.1 points among those who reported that they did well).


Assessment of the economic situation

Ukrainian citizens are quite skeptical about the economic situation in the country: in May 2021, eight months before the start of the full-scale war, 60% of respondents called "very bad" or "fairly bad" (and only 5% — "good" or "very good", 32% — "neither bad nor good"). In September–October 2022, seven months into the war, the share of citizens who assessed it as "very bad" or "fairly bad" increased (up to 64.5%). These assessments improved in February–March 2023, when a decrease in negative assessments was recorded even compared to the "pre-war" period: then, the economic situation in the country was termed "very bad" or "fairly bad" by 55% (4% — "good " or "very good", 37% — "neither bad nor good"). According to the poll conducted in December 2023, these estimates have worsened (66.5%, 3% and 27%, respectively). The indicators of the latest, June poll (64%, 3% and 30%, respectively) are close to those of December 2023.

The well-being of own families, as a rule, is assessed by citizens better than the economic situation in the country. In May 2021, only 36% termed it "very" or "rather" bad, 48% called it "neither bad nor good", and 14% — "good" or "very good"). In September–October 2022, the share of citizens who called it "very" or "rather" bad increased slightly (to 39%), the share of those who considered it "good" or "very good" fell to 10% . According to the poll conducted in February–March 2023, the assessments of the family well-being, along with the assessments of the economic situation in the country, slightly improved and became close to those recorded in May 2021: 35% called it " very" or "rather" bad, 50% — "neither bad nor good", 12% — "good" or "very good". In December 2023, the assessments of the family well-being slightly worsened (37%, 51%, and 10.5%, respectively) and did not statistically differ from those observed in September–October 2022. However, the results of the poll conducted in June 2024 show some improvement compared to last December (37%, 47% and 14%, respectively) due to a small increase in the total share of those who called the level of family well-being "good" or "very good".

When assessing the material well-being of their families from the viewpoint of what purchases family incomes allow, after the start of the full-scale aggression, compared to June 2021, the share of citizens who hardly made ends meet and did not have the money even for necessary foodstuffs has increased (from 9% in June 2021 to 13% in June 2024), while the share of those who said that their families "generally do well, but the purchase of durables, such as furniture, a refrigerator, a TV set, causes difficulties" decreased (from 44% to 38.5%).

Before the start of the full-scale war, citizens did not tend to believe in rapid economic changes: in May 2021, only 12% believed that in the next 3 months the economic situation of the country would change for the better, 13% hoped that during this timeframe the well-being of their families would change for the better. More often citizens expected the situation to worsen in the months following the poll: 22% answered that the economic situation in the country would change for the worse, 18% — that during this timeframe the well-being of their family would change for the worse. However, the most widespread opinion was that the situation will not change significantly in 3 months (respectively, 56% and 57% did not expect changes there).

In September–October 2022, the share of those who expected the situation in the economy to deteriorate significantly increased to 35% (due to a decrease to 37.5% in the share of those who believed that the situation would not change), only 9.5% believed that the situation woild change for the better. According to the poll conducted in February–March 2023, the share of those who expected the situation in the economy to deteriorate within 3 months decreased to 23%, with a simultaneous increase in the shares of those who expected the situation to improve (up to 13%) and those who believed that it would not change (up to 45%). However, from the second half of 2023, citizens' short-term expectations worsened. In June 2024, the share of those who believed that the situation in the economy would change for the better within 3 months made 7%, of those who suggested that it would worsen — 34%, and the share of those who suggested that it would not change — 46%.

Similar trends were observed in the dynamics of expected short-term changes in the family well-being. According to the latest poll, the share of those who believe that it will improve during this period makes 7%, of those who suggest that it will worsen — 28%, that it will not change — 51%.

After the start of the large-scale war, there was a significant improvement in the medium-term (2–3 years) economic expectations. That said, the share of those who expected the economic situation in the country to improve in the next 2–3 years increased from 30% to 43% in September–October 2022, compared to May 2021, and in February–March 2023 — to 52%. However, later this optimism decreased, and in June 2024, 29% thought so. The share of those who expect the situation to worsen makes 25%, and the share of those who believe that the situation in this area will not change — 19%.

The share of those who expected their family well-being to improve in the next 2–3 years increased from 29% in May 2021 to 41% in September–October 2022 and to 49.5% in February–March 2023. According to the latest poll, the share of such people decreased to 29%. Those who believe that the well-being of their family will deteriorate during this period make 21%, while 22% believe it will not change.


Trust in the institutes of society

Among state and public institutes, the most trusted are the Armed Forces of Ukraine (90% of respondents trust them), volunteer organizations (81%), volunteer battalions (80%), the State Emergency Service (79%), the National Guard of Ukraine (75%), the State Border Service (71%), the Church (63%), Ukraine’s Defence Ministry (61%), the Security Service of Ukraine (61%), public organizations (56.5%), mayors of the cities (villages, villages) where the respondents live (51%), the President of Ukraine (50%).

Trust is also expressed more often than distrust in the National Police of Ukraine (49% and 43%, respectively) and the National Bank of Ukraine (48% and 42%).

Trust and distrust are equally expressed in the council of the city (village, village) where the respondent lives (respectively, 45% and 46%) and the Verkhovna Rada for Human Rights Commissioner (Ombudsman) (39% and 39%).

The majority of respondents express distrust in the state apparatus (officials) (78.5% distrust it), political parties (77.5%), the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine (76%), courts (the judicial system in general) (73%), the Government of Ukraine (73 %), the Prosecutor's Office (64%), the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (63%), the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (62%), the National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption (62%), commercial banks (58%). 50% of respondents distrust Ukrainian mass media. Distrust in trade unions is also reported more often than trust (49% distrust, 25% trust them).


Trust in politicians, officials and public figures

Among politicians, officials and public figures whose credibility was assessed during the poll, most respondents reported trust in V. Zelenskyy (54%). Meanwhile, "personal" trust in V. Zelenskyy exceeds "institutional" trust in the President of Ukraine (50% of respondents trust the President as a social institute).

Trust was expressed more often than distrust in V. Kim (46% and 32.5% respectively), D. Kuleba (43% and 35.5%), V. Malyuk (38% and 25%).

The majority of respondents do not trust Yu. Tymoshenko (80%), O. Arestovich (80%), Yu. Boyko (77%), M. Bezuhla (68%), P. Poroshenko (67%), A. Yermak (64% ), R. Stefanchuk (64%). D. Arakhamia (62%), D. Shmyhal (57%).

Distrust was expressed more often than trust in I. Vereshchuk (49% distrust, 28% trust her), S. Prytula (47% and 41%, respectively), V. Klitschko (45% and 41%, respectively), M. Podoliak (42% and 36%), R. Umerov (41% and 28%), D. Hetmantsev (40% and 20%), I. Klymenko (31.5% and 24%), O. Lytvynenko (26% and 14%).


Attitude to national elections to be held in Ukraine before the end of the war

Only 22% of respondents welcomed the idea of ​​holding national elections in Ukraine (presidential or parliamentary) before the war end (although this is slightly more than in September 2023 — 15%), the majority of respondents (59%) rejected this idea (in September 2023 — 64%). To a large extent, support for the elections before the end of the war depends on the level of trust in the current government. That said, among those who trust the President of Ukraine, only 11.5% would support such elections, while among those who do not trust him — 34%, but even among those who do not trust the President, a relative majority (47%) do not support the idea of ​​such elections (among those who trust him — 72%).

The negative attitude to elections during the war is caused by the fact that a relative majority (46%) of citizens believes that such elections will split Ukrainian society (only 11% suggested that they would unite society; in September–October 2023 — 40% and 9%, respectively).


Belief in victory and vision of victory

80% of respondents believe in Ukraine’s victory in the war (65% of residents of the country’s East, 79% in the South and 84% in the Western and Central regions), 12% do not believe in it (from 9% in the Centre to 18% in the East of the country).

Regarding the time of the victory, the opinions of those respondents who believe in it changed little, compared to March and January 2024, when similar polls were conducted. Only compared to January 2024, the number of those who believe that victory will come before the end of this year slightly increased (their share rose from 20% to 24%).

38% believe that it will come in 1–2 years, 15% — that it will take from 3 to 5 years, 5% — more than 5 years, 1% — that the victory will "hardly happen in my lifetime".

The most optimistic expectations of victory were in February–March 2023, when 50% believed that victory would come before the end of 2023.

Regarding what can be considered a victory, a relative majority (42%) of those who believe in victory said that it meant the expulsion of Russian troops from the entire territory of Ukraine and restoration of the borders as of January 2014. Another 17.5% see the victory as the defeat of the Russian army and promotion of an uprising/collapse in Russia. 14% see the victory as the restoration of the status quo as of February 23, 2022, 8% — expulsion of Russian troops from the entire territory of Ukraine, except for occupied Crimea, and 8% — the end of the war, even if the Russian army remains in the territories that were captured as a result of its full-scale invasion (after February 24, 2022).


POLL RESULTS IN TABLES

(data in the tables are given as percentages, unless indicated otherwise)


Generally speaking, do you think that the events in Ukraine are developing in the right or wrong direction?

In the right direction 32.9
In a wrong direction 47.4
Hard to say 19.6


Do you believe that Ukraine can overcome the existing problems and difficulties?

It can overcome in the next few years 29.0
It can overcome in a more remote future 45.9
It cannot 11.3
Hard to say 13.8


How satisfied are you, generally, with your life? Please use the scale from 1 to 10, where "1" means "absolutely dissatisfied", "10" — "fully satisfied"
(Tick one box):

absolutely dissatisfied 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 fully satisfied
8.9 7.7 14.4 13.8 19.0 12.0 9.4 7.6 2.3 3.2

No answer — 1,6%

Average score — 4,8


Please assess the situation in Ukraine in the following areas on a 5-point scale, where "1" means that the situation is very bad, and "5" means that the situation is very good.

Very bad Rather bad Neither bad nor good Good Very good Hard to say Average score
Economic situation in the country 20.7 43.1 30.3 3.1 0.2 2.6 2.2
Wellbeing of your family 10.0 26.7 47.4 13.3 0.7 1.9 2.7


How would you describe the wellbeing of your family?

We hardly make ends meet, money is not enough even for the most necessary foodstuffs 12.9
We have enough money for food and necessary inexpensive items 37.6
Generally, we can live with it, but acquisition of durables, such as furniture, a refrigerator, a TV set, caused difficulties 38.5
We do well but cannot afford some purchases (buy an apartment, a car, etc.) 7.8
We can afford almost anything we want 0.6
Hard to say 2.7


How do you think the situation in Ukraine in the following sectors will change in the next three months?

Will change for the better Will change for the worse Will not change Hard to say
Economic situation in the country 7.0 34.4 46.0 12.6
Wellbeing of your family 6.9 27.8 51.4 13.9


How do you think the situation in Ukraine in the following sectors will change in the next 2–3 years?

Will change for the better Will change for the worse Will not change Hard to say
Economic situation in the country 29.3 24.9 19.4 26.4
Wellbeing of your family 28.8 21.4 22.3 27.5


To what extent do you trust the following institutes of society?

totally distrust rather, distrust rather, trust fully trust hard to say balance of trust/distrust*
President of Ukraine 18.0 24.7 37.0 12.6 7.7 6.9
Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine 37.5 38.7 16.0 3.3 4.5 -56.9
Government of Ukraine 34.3 38.5 18.9 2.7 5.6 -51.2
State machinery (officials) 36.2 42.3 13.5 2.2 5.8 -62.8
Your city (town, village) mayor 18.1 24.9 42.9 7.7 6.4 7.6
Local council of your city (town, village) 17.0 28.6 37.7 7.1 9.6 -0.8
Armed Forces of Ukraine 2.6 5.1 29.3 60.7 2.1 82.3
Ministry of Defence of Ukraine 9.6 21.9 40.3 20.5 7.6 29.3
State Border Service 6.9 16.0 43.4 27.2 6.5 47.7
National Guard of Ukraine 6.0 12.9 41.4 34.0 5.8 56.5
National Police 14.4 28.8 36.1 13.0 7.8 5.9
Security Service of Ukraine 10.7 18.7 39.6 21.1 9.9 31.3
State Emergency Service 5.5 10.3 38.8 40.1 5.3 63.1
Prosecutor’s Office 27.4 36.3 21.7 3.9 10.6 -38.1
Courts (judicial system as a whole) 33.6 39.8 14.2 2.9 9.5 -56.3
National Anticorruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) 27.0 35.0 19.6 4.3 14.2 -38.1
Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office 27.7 35.3 18.2 3.4 15.3 -41.4
National Agency on Corruption Prevention (NACP) 27.6 34.4 17.2 3.5 17.3 -41.3
Verkhovna Rada Human Rights Commissioner (Ombudsman) 15.0 23.7 33.1 6.1 22.2 0.5
Ukrainian mass media 17.3 32.9 36.1 5.1 8.6 -9.0
National Bank of Ukraine 16.3 26.1 43.2 4.9 9.4 5.7
Commercial banks 22.8 35.0 25.0 4.0 13.2 -28.8
Trade unions 20.9 28.3 21.9 2.8 26.1 -24.5
Political parties 31.9 45.6 12.2 2.0 8.3 -63.3
Public organizations 9.4 21.9 48.5 8.0 12.2 25.2
Church 10.7 14.8 42.8 20.5 11.3 37.8
Volunteer battalions 4.0 9.2 44.2 35.4 7.2 66.4
Volunteer organizations 4.0 9.8 51.7 29.4 5.1 67.3

* Difference between trust and distrust


To what extent do you trust the following politicians, officials and public figures?

totally distrust rather, distrust rather, trust fully trust not aware hard to say balance of trust/distrust*
Davyd Arakhamia 37.9 24.0 12.5 2.1 14 9.6 -47.3
Oleksiy Arestovych 55.9 23.9 8.6 1.9 3.6 6.0 -69.3
Maryana Bezuhla 47.1 21.0 8.2 0.8 16.8 6.2 -59.1
Yuriy Boyko 58.0 18.9 8.0 1.1 8.1 5.9 -67.8
Iryna Vereshchuk 23.8 25.5 23.8 4.0 12.9 10.1 -21.5
Danylo Hetmantsev 21.1 18.9 17.7 2.1 30.1 10.1 -20.2
Andriy Yermak 37.7 26.2 16.3 3.2 5.7 11.0 -44.4
Volodymyr Zelenskyy 16.4 21.4 35.8 18.0 0.2 8.2 16.0
Vitaliy Kim 13.2 19.3 34.3 11.5 10.2 11.4 13.3
Ihor Klymenko 14.4 17.1 19.2 4.4 33.3 11.6 -7.9
Vitali Klitschko 18.0 27.3 34.7 6.2 1.0 12.7 -4.4
Dmytro Kuleba 16.1 19.4 33.9 8.9 10.8 10.9 7.3
Oleksandr Lytvynenko 13.4 12.4 12.6 1.7 49.6 10.3 -11.5
Vasyl Maliuk 12.2 12.4 27.3 10.6 26.9 10.6 13.3
Mykhailo Podoliak 18.5 23.6 27.9 7.9 10.4 11.5 -6.3
Petro Poroshenko 35.0 32.1 19.7 4.5 0.3 8.3 -42.9
Serhiy Prytula 22.5 24.5 32.4 8.4 1.8 10.4 -6.2
Ruslan Stefanchuk 31.4 32.4 15.5 2.0 9.4 9.4 -46.3
Yuliya Tymoshenko 48.3 31.7 11.4 1.5 0.7 6.3 -67.1
Rustem Umerov 21.3 19.9 24.8 3.2 14.6 16.2 -13.2
Denys Shmyhal 27.7 29.6 24.0 3.1 3.5 12.1 -30.2

* Difference between trust and distrust


In the recent months, there has been much talk about the possibility of holding elections in Ukraine yet before the war end. What is your attitude to the idea of holding national (presidential or parliamentary) elections in 2024?

Positive 21.7
Negative 58.8
Hard to say 19.5


Do you think that elections in wartime will split or, on the contrary, unite Ukrainian society?

They will unite it 10.6
They will split it 46.4
They will not influence the unity of Ukrainian society 28.5
Hard to say 14.5


Do you believe in Ukraine’s victory in the war with Russia?

Yes 53.0
Rather, yes 26.9
Rather, no 7.2
No 5.0
Hard to say 7.8


When do you think this victory will come?
% among those who believe in Ukraine’s victory

Before the end of this year 23.8
In 1–2 years 37.7
In 3–5 years 14.6
Not earlier than in 5 years 4.6
Hardly in my lifetime 1.3
Other 0.6
Hard to say 17.5


What do you personally see as victory in this war?
% among those who believe in Ukraine’s victory

End of the war, even if the Russian army remains in the territories seized after February 24, 2022 (parts of Kherson, Zaporizhia regions, Donbas) 7.7
Expulsion of Russian troops behind the line as of February 23, 2022 (separate districts of Donetsk, Luhansk regions and Crimea remain occupied) 13.8
Expulsion of Russian troops from the entire territory of Ukraine except Crimea 7.7
Expulsion of Russian troops from the entire territory of Ukraine and restoration of borders as of January 2014 41.8
Defeat of the Russian army and an uprising in /collapse of Russia 17.5
Other 2.0
Hard to say 9.5


DYNAMICS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS POLLS


Generally speaking, do you think that the events in Ukraine are developing in the right or wrong direction?

December 2021 September–October 2022 February–March 2023 July 2023 September 2023 December 2023 January 2024 March 2024 June 2024
In the right direction 20.3 51.0 60.6 52.1 48.7 45.3 40.6 37.7 32.9
In a wrong direction 65.5 27.8 21.0 26.8 30.5 33.2 38.0 38.7 47.4
Hard to say 14.2 21.3 18.5 21.1 20.8 21.5 21.4 23.5 19.6


Do you believe that Ukraine can overcome the existing problems and difficulties?

December 2021 September–October 2022 February–March 2023 July 2023 September 2023 December 2023 January 2024 March 2024 June 2024
It can overcome in the next few years 17.7 40.6 49.4 42.7 38.0 32.2 32.8 30.5 29.0
It can overcome in a more remote future 54.4 42.6 35.9 41.7 43.4 45.3 42.2 45.9 45.9
It cannot 17.6 5.2 3.4 6.4 8.6 7.2 9.0 10.5 11.3
Hard to say 10.3 11.6 11.3 9.2 10.0 15.3 16.1 13.2 13.8


How satisfied are you, generally, with your life? Please use the scale from 1 to 10, where "1" means "absolutely dissatisfied", "10" — "fully satisfied",
average scores.

December 2011 March 2017 September–October 2022 January 2024 March 2024 June 2024
absolutely dissatisfied 4.5 5.1 5.2 4.7 4.9 4.8 fully satisfied


Please assess the situation in Ukraine in the following areas on a 5-point scale, where "1" means that the situation is very bad, and "5" means that the situation is very good

Very bad Rather bad Neither bad nor good Good Very good Hard to say Average score (points)
Economic situation in the country
December 2020 27.6 44.4 23.0 1.9 0.2 3.0 2.0
January–February 2021 28.6 40.6 26.0 1.8 0.1 2.8 2.0
May 2021 22.1 37.9 32.2 4.7 0.7 2.4 2.2
September–October 2022 21.5 43.0 28.9 3.7 0.5 2.5 2.2
February–March 2023 15.7 39.6 36.8 4.0 0.3 3.5 2.3
September 2023 18.7 37.8 35.2 5.0 0.3 3.0 2.3
December 2023 22.0 44.5 27.4 2.7 0.4 3.0 2.1
January 2024 16.3 40.8 34.1 4.6 0.4 3.8 2.3
March 2024 21.7 40.2 31.8 3.1 0.3 2.9 2.2
June 2024 20.7 43.1 30.3 3.1 0.2 2.6 2.2
Wellbeing of your family
December 2020 14.0 33.8 42.0 7.2 0.2 2.9 2.4
January–February 2021 11.1 32.1 46.4 6.3 0.4 3.6 2.5
May 2021 10.4 25.5 47.6 13.0 0.9 2.6 2.7
September–October 2022 10.5 28.1 49.5 8.5 1.1 2.3 2.6
February–March 2023 8.3 26.5 49.7 11.4 0.7 3.4 2.7
September 2023 8.5 25.1 50.0 13.7 0.6 2.0 2.7
December 2023 8.8 28.2 50.7 9.6 0.9 1.9 2.7
January 2024 6.0 26.3 52.3 12.0 0.5 2.9 2.7
March 2024 7.6 24.1 51.4 12.9 1.6 2.4 2.8
June 2024 10.0 26.7 47.4 13.3 0.7 1.9 2.7


How would you describe the wellbeing of your family?

April 2017 June 2021 August 2022 February–March 2023 September 2023 January 2024 March 2024 June 2024
We hardly make ends meet, money is not enough even for the most necessary foodstuffs 17.6 9.2 13.5 14.2 11.1 10.9 10.9 12.9
We have enough money for food and necessary inexpensive items 44.8 38.3 37.8 42.0 36.8 37.6 37.7 37.6
Generally, we can live with it, but acquisition of durables, such as furniture, a refrigerator, a TV set, caused difficulties 30.9 43.8 39.0 33.7 42.7 39.9 42.2 38.5
We do well but cannot afford some purchases (buy an apartment, a car, etc.) 4.3 6.4 7.2 6.1 6.7 7.8 7.0 7.8
We can afford almost anything we want 0.2 0.9 0.3 1.3 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6
Hard to say, no answer 2.1 1.4 2.2 2.6 2.1 3.1 1.7 2.7


How do you think the situation in Ukraine in the following sectors will change in the next three months?

Will change for the better Will change for the worse Will not change Hard to say
Economic situation in the country
December 2020 8.3 40.8 39.0 11.9
January–February 2021 6.9 32.2 47.8 13.1
May 2021 11.8 22.1 55.7 10.5
September–October 2022 9.5 35.2 37.5 17.9
February–March 2023 13.4 22.7 45.3 18.5
September 2023 10.0 28.2 49.8 12.0
December 2023 6.8 32.9 48.1 12.2
January 2024 6.6 33.4 45.8 14.1
March 2024 6.6 31.2 49.1 13.0
June 2024 7.0 34.4 46.0 12.6
Wellbeing of your family
December 2020 9.2 32.3 43.7 14.8
January–February 2021 7.8 23.8 53.2 15.3
May 2021 12.6 18.3 57.1 12.0
September–October 2022 9.2 25.9 45.2 19.7
February–March 2023 13.3 18.0 48.0 20.7
September 2023 9.8 22.0 53.6 14.5
December 2023 8.3 25.1 53.4 13.1
January 2024 7.3 25.8 49.1 17.8
March 2024 7.1 24.5 53.7 14.6
June 2024 6.9 27.8 51.4 13.9


How do you think the situation in Ukraine in the following sectors will change in the next 2–3 years?

Will change for the better Will change for the worse Will not change Hard to say
Economic situation in the country
December 2020 22.8 26.7 20.4 30.1
January–February 2021 19.7 25.0 21.0 34.4
May 2021 29.9 21.2 26.1 22.8
September–October 2022 43.4 14.8 14.1 27.7
February–March 2023 52.1 11.0 11.1 25.8
September 2023 38.1 20.3 16.8 24.8
December 2023 34.5 22.1 16.1 27.3
January 2024 31.0 22.5 15.2 31.4
March 2024 28.6 25.3 19.4 26.8
June 2024 29.3 24.9 19.4 26.4
Wellbeing of your family
December 2020 24.7 21.8 21.8 31.7
January–February 2021 20.8 19.5 24.3 35.5
May 2021 29.2 16.5 27.1 27.1
September–October 2022 40.6 12.8 16.5 30.0
February–March 2023 49.5 10.0 13.1 27.5
September 2023 36.5 16.5 21.0 26.0
December 2023 34.0 17.7 19.2 29.2
January 2024 31.2 17.6 17.9 33.3
March 2024 29.0 19.2 22.1 29.7
June 2024 28.8 21.4 22.3 27.5


Trust in the institutes of society

July–August 2021 March 2024 June 2024
distrust* trust** hard to say balance of trust and distrust*** distrust* trust** hard to say balance of trust and distrust*** distrust* trust** hard to say balance of trust and distrust***
Armed Forces of Ukraine 24.8 68.3 6.7 43.5 2.8 95.6 1.7 92.8 7.7 90.0 2.1 82.3
Volunteer organizations 25.1 63.6 11.3 38.5 8.9 84.6 6.5 75.7 13.8 81.1 5.1 67.3
Volunteer battalions 33.4 53.5 13.1 20.1 7.4 86.1 6.4 78.7 13.2 79.6 7.2 66.4
State Emergency Service 28.7 61.4 9.9 32.7 10.0 84.9 5.2 74.9 15.8 78.9 5.3 63.1
National Guard of Ukraine 36.0 53.6 10.4 17.6 13.2 80.4 6.4 67.2 18.9 75.4 5.8 56.5
State Border Service 34.3 55 10.7 20.7 17.0 76.1 6.9 59.1 22.9 70.6 6.5 47.7
Church 26.3 63.5 10.3 37.2 27.8 60.3 11.9 32.5 25.5 63.3 11.3 37.8
Ministry of Defence of Ukraine ˗ ˗ ˗ ˗ 24.6 67.5 7.9 42.9 31.5 60.8 7.6 29.3
Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) 49.7 37.5 12.7 -12.2 24.4 66.7 8.9 42.3 29.4 60.7 9.9 31.3
Public organizations 37.4 47 15.5 9.6 24.0 61.4 14.6 37.4 31.3 56.5 12.2 25.2
Your city (town, village) mayor 33.6 57.1 9.3 23.5 38.3 54.2 7.5 15.9 43 50.6 6.4 7.6
President of Ukraine 57.6 36.2 6.2 -21.4 32.3 58.6 9.1 26.3 42.7 49.6 7.7 6.9
National Police of Ukraine 52.9 38.5 8.5 -14.4 39.2 53.2 7.6 14.0 43.2 49.1 7.8 5.9
National Bank of Ukraine 60.1 29.1 10.9 -31.0 36.1 52.1 11.9 16.0 42.4 48.1 9.4 5.7
Local council of your city (town, village) 37.8 51.4 10.7 13.6 40.7 48.4 10.9 7.7 45.6 44.8 9.6 -0.8
Ukrainian mass media 45.8 45.4 8.9 -0.4 45.4 45.7 8.9 0.3 50.2 41.2 8.6 -9
Verkhovna Rada Human Rights Commissioner (Ombudsman) 40.1 31.7 28.1 -8.4 31.8 43.2 25.0 11.4 38.7 39.2 22.2 0.5
Commercial banks 70.7 18.2 11.1 -52.5 51.1 33.1 15.9 -18.0 57.8 29.0 13.2 -28.8
Prosecutor’s Office 71.1 17.8 11.1 -53.3 61.9 24.7 13.4 -37.2 63.7 25.6 10.6 -38.1
Trade unions 54.8 21.2 24.0 -33.6 43.4 25.3 31.2 -18.1 49.2 24.7 26.1 -24.5
National Anticorruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) 69.6 15.2 15.3 -54.4 55.2 25.2 19.6 -30.0 62.0 23.9 14.2 -38.1
Government of Ukraine 72 21.5 6.6 -50.5 65.5 27.0 7.5 -38.5 72.8 21.6 5.6 -51.2
Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office 69.3 13.6 17.2 -55.7 56.2 23.0 20.8 -33.2 63.0 21.6 15.3 -41.4
National Agency on Corruption Prevention 69.6 13.2 17.2 -56.4 56.7 21.6 21.7 -35.1 62.0 20.7 17.3 -41.3
Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine 75.1 18.7 6.1 -56.4 74.1 19.5 6.5 -54.6 76.2 19.3 4.5 -56.9
Courts (judicial system as a whole) 74.2 15.5 10.4 -58.7 69.6 17.8 12.6 -51.8 73.4 17.1 9.5 -56.3
State machinery (officials) 75.7 14.9 9.4 -60.8 76.1 16.0 7.9 -60.1 78.5 15.7 5.8 -62.8
Political parties 71.7 16.1 12.2 -55.6 75.6 12.8 11.6 -62.8 77.5 14.2 8.3 -63.3

* Aggregate of answers "don't trust at all" and "rather, don't trust"

** Aggregate of answers "fully trust" and "rather, trust"

*** Difference between trust and distrust


To what extent do you trust the following politicians, officials and public figures?

Distrust* Trust** Not aware Hard to say Balance of trust and distrust*
Davyd Arakhamia
February–March 2023 38.8 26.7 18.6 15.9 -12.1
May 2023 45.7 18.1 19.3 16.8 -27.6
July 2023 49.0 21.5 15.9 13.6 -27.5
September 2023 54.2 19.2 15.5 11.2 -35.0
December 2023 57.3 18.4 12.0 12.2 -38.9
January 2024 58.1 14.0 14.6 13.2 -44.1
June 2024 61.9 14.6 14 9.6 -47.3
Oleksiy Arestovych
February–March 2023 58.6 25.9 3.7 11.9 -32.7
May 2023 65.3 20.3 3.6 10.8 -45.0
July 2023 65.4 19.4 5.1 10.1 -46.0
September 2023 71.3 15.3 3.9 9.4 -56.0
December 2023 81.8 8.2 2.3 7.5 -73.6
January 2024 79.2 8.6 4.2 7.9 -70.6
June 2024 79.8 10.5 3.6 6 -69.3
Maryana Bezuhla
December 2023 58.5 7.7 27.2 6.6 -50.8
January 2024 65.8 6.9 18.6 8.7 -58.9
June 2024 68.1 9 16.8 6.2 -59.1
Yuriy Boyko
July–August 2021 73.0 17.8 3.0 6.3 -55.2
February–March 2023 81.6 6.0 6.5 5.9 -75.6
May 2023 77.0 6.1 8.6 8.4 -70.9
July 2023 76.0 9.8 6.6 7.6 -66.2
September 2023 82.2 6.8 6.5 4.6 -75.4
December 2023 81.3 6.1 6.8 5.9 -75.2
January 2024 78.2 5.5 8.6 7.6 -72.7
June 2024 76.9 9.1 8.1 5.9 -67.8
Iryna Vereshchuk
December 2023 38.8 40.1 11.2 10.0 1.3
January 2024 42.0 33.6 12.6 11.8 -8.4
June 2024 49.3 27.8 12.9 10.1 -21.5
Danylo Hetmantsev
December 2023 33.4 20.4 35.6 10.6 -13.0
January 2024 32.6 20.2 34.3 12.9 -12.4
June 2024 40.0 19.8 30.1 10.1 -20.2
Andriy Yermak
July–August 2021 58.5 10.3 22.6 8.6 -48.2
February–March 2023 36.0 40.6 8.1 15.3 4.6
May 2023 40.0 37.5 7.6 15 -2.5
July 2023 41.8 37.8 7.8 12.6 -4.0
September 2023 52.8 29.1 7.4 10.8 -23.7
December 2023 54.3 29.7 5.9 10.1 -24.6
January 2024 55.5 25.2 5.7 13.6 -30.3
June 2024 63.9 19.5 5.7 11.0 -44.4
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
July–August 2021 61.0 32.6 0.4 6.1 -28.4
February–March 2023 9.9 84.9 0.5 4.7 75.0
May 2023 11.0 83.5 0.3 5.1 72.5
July 2023 13.6 80.8 0.6 4.9 67.2
September 2023 18.6 74.8 0.1 6.5 56.2
December 2023 23.4 70.7 0.3 5.6 47.3
January 2024 24.5 69.0 0.1 6.5 44.5
June 2024 37.8 53.8 0.2 8.2 16.0
Vitaliy Kim
May 2023 14.7 62.7 10.6 12.1 48.0
July 2023 12.9 71.1 7.8 8.3 58.2
September 2023 18.0 64.1 9.1 8.8 46.1
December 2023 17.0 64.7 8.9 9.4 47.7
January 2024 21.3 58.0 9.7 10.9 36.7
June 2024 32.5 45.8 10.2 11.4 13.3
Ihor Klymenko
February–March 2023 16.9 27.2 42.5 13.3 10.3
May 2023 16.2 21.6 48.1 14.1 5.4
July 2023 17.2 32.0 38.2 12.6 14.8
September 2023 22.1 25.7 40.9 11.4 3.6
December 2023 21.0 30.8 35.8 12.3 9.8
January 2024 22.8 27.9 35.8 13.5 5.1
June 2024 31.5 23.6 33.3 11.6 -7.9
Vitali Klitschko
July–August 2021 64.2 25.6 0.6 9.6 -38.6
February–March 2023 27.5 57.9 1.6 13.0 30.4
May 2023 34.8 48.4 1.3 15.5 13.6
July 2023 35.5 47.7 2.4 14.4 12.2
September 2023 39.5 43.7 2.5 14.2 4.2
December 2023 45.2 40.0 1.2 13.6 -5.2
January 2024 43.6 39.2 1.2 16.0 -4.4
June 2024 45.3 40.9 1 12.7 -4.4
Dmytro Kuleba
January 2024 27.9 50.1 9.8 12.1 22.2
June 2024 35.5 42.8 10.8 10.9 7.3
Vasyl Maliuk
February–March 2023 14.7 24.7 49.2 11.3 10.0
May 2023 14.9 26.4 46.5 12.3 11.5
July 2023 15.5 33.1 39.9 11.6 17.6
September 2023 20.9 33.8 34.7 10.6 12.9
December 2023 20.8 41.1 27.1 11.1 20.3
January 2024 22.2 40.1 28.7 8.9 17.9
June 2024 24.6 37.9 26.9 10.6 13.3
Mykhailo Podoliak
February–March 2023 19.2 59.5 12.1 9.2 40.3
May 2023 24.1 50.7 11.0 14.1 26.6
July 2023 24.5 52.1 13.0 10.3 27.6
September 2023 30.3 44.6 14.0 11.1 14.3
December 2023 29.4 51.6 10.0 9.1 22.2
January 2024 32.2 44.4 12.0 11.5 12.2
June 2024 42.1 35.8 10.4 11.5 -6.3
Petro Poroshenko
July–August 2021 75.5 17.6 0.4 6.3 -57.9
February–March 2023 64.8 24.4 0.1 10.7 -40.4
May 2023 73.1 17.1 0.5 9.4 -56.0
July 2023 70.7 19.7 0.5 9.1 -51.0
September 2023 73.1 16.9 0.7 9.4 -56.2
December 2023 74.2 18.2 0.7 6.9 -56.0
January 2024 69.8 18.7 0.3 11.1 -51.1
June 2024 67.1 24.2 0.3 8.3 -42.9
Serhiy Prytula
July–August 2021 56.5 21.8 8.9 12.9 -34.7
February–March 2023 21.7 65.0 2.5 10.8 43.3
May 2023 29.3 55.8 2.9 12.0 26.5
July 2023 31.3 55.0 4.0 9.6 23.7
September 2023 35.2 51.3 2.8 10.7 16.1
December 2023 33.5 54.8 3.6 8.1 21.3
January 2024 33.2 54.3 2.6 10.0 21.1
June 2024 47.0 40.8 1.8 10.4 -6.2
Ruslan Stefanchuk
February–March 2023 27.4 34.7 22.6 15.3 7.3
May 2023 33.7 26.9 23.1 16.3 -6.8
July 2023 35.6 31.0 20.1 13.3 -4.6
September 2023 46.0 24.6 17.8 11.5 -21.4
December 2023 41.4 27.8 18.1 12.7 -13.6
January 2024 50.5 23.1 14.8 11.6 -27.4
June 2024 63.8 17.5 9.4 9.4 -46.3
Yuliya Tymoshenko
July–August 2021 72.2 19.9 0.8 7.2 -52.3
February–March 2023 75.7 13.2 0.7 10.4 -62.5
May 2023 80.4 8.7 0.6 10.3 -71.7
July 2023 78.0 10.4 1.2 10.3 -67.6
September 2023 82.1 10.8 1.0 6.1 -71.3
December 2023 84.6 8.1 1.0 6.3 -76.5
January 2024 80.5 11.0 0.5 8.0 -69.5
June 2024 80.0 12.9 0.7 6.3 -67.1
Rustem Umerov
September 2023 20.9 25.1 31.7 22.4 4.2
December 2023 21.8 35.2 23.1 19.9 13.4
January 2024 27.2 33.2 19.4 20.2 6.0
June 2024 41.2 28.0 14.6 16.2 -13.2
Denys Shmyhal
July–August 2021 69.1 10.6 7.7 12.5 -58.5
February–March 2023 30.2 51.6 3.7 14.5 21.4
May 2023 39.3 36.1 5.9 18.8 -3.2
July 2023 37.9 41.4 6.9 13.8 3.5
September 2023 44.3 36.4 5.7 13.6 -7.9
December 2023 42.4 38.4 7.0 12.2 -4.0
January 2024 44.7 34.0 6.6 14.6 -10.7
June 2024 57.3 27.1 3.5 12.1 -30.2

* Aggregate of answers "don't trust at all" and "rather, don't trust"

** Aggregate of answers "fully trust" and "rather, trust"

*** Difference between trust and distrust


In the recent months, there has been much talk about the possibility of holding elections in Ukraine yet before the war end. What is your attitude to the idea of holding national (presidential or parliamentary) elections in 2024?

September 2023 March 2024 June 2024
Positive 15.1 22.1 21.7
Negative 63.8 59.5 58.8
Hard to say 21.1 18.4 19.5


Do you think that elections in wartime will split or, on the contrary, unite Ukrainian society?

September–October 2023 March 2024 June 2024
They will unite it 9.3 11.9 10.6
They will split it 40.0 45.2 46.4
They will not influence the unity of Ukrainian society 33.0 26.1 28.5
Hard to say 17.8 16.9 14.5


Do you believe in Ukraine’s victory in the war with Russia?

August 2022 December 2022 February–March 2023 July 2023 December 2023 January 2024 March 2024 June 2024
Yes 76.9 78.5 79.6 79.4 63.3 62.3 59.5 53.0
Rather, yes 14.6 14.7 13.6 13.8 24.8 22.5 23.4 26.9
Rather, no 2.9 1.9 2.1 1.6 3.8 5.0 6.4 7.2
No 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.6 3.5 4.4 5.0
Hard to say 4.4 3.7 3.3 3.5 6.5 6.7 6.4 7.8


When do you think this victory will come?
% among those who believe in Ukraine’s victory

August 2022 February–March 2023 July 2023 January 2024 March 2024 June 2024
Before the end of this year 31.2 49.9 35.4 19.7 21.9 23.8
In 1–2 years 34.3 25.9 37.8 39.8 34.5 37.7
In 3–5 years 7.1 7.4 8.9 14.0 16.7 14.6
Not earlier than in 5 years 2.1 1.1 1.2 3.2 4.2 4.6
Hardly in my lifetime 1.7 0.4 0.3 1.1 0.8 1.3
Other 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.6
Hard to say 23.1 15.0 15.9 21.8 21.3 17.5


What do you personally see as victory in this war?
% among those who believe in Ukraine’s victory

August 2022 September–October 2022 December 2022 February–March 2023 July 2023 January 2024 March 2024 June 2024
End of the war, even if the Russian army remains in the territories seized after February 24, 2022 (parts of Kherson, Zaporizhia regions, Donbas) 3.1 6.0 3.3 4.6 5.2 3.6 6.2 7.7
Expulsion of Russian troops behind the line as of February 23, 2022 (separate districts of Donetsk, Luhansk regions and Crimea remain occupied) 7.4 8.1 6.2 4.6 9.0 13.0 10.7 13.8
Expulsion of Russian troops from the entire territory of Ukraine except Crimea 8.7 4.2 8.0 4.4 5.7 7.4 8.6 7.7
Expulsion of Russian troops from the entire territory of Ukraine and restoration of borders as of January 2014 54.7 43.9 54.1 46.9 52.6 38.1 45.5 41.8
Defeat of the Russian army and an uprising in /collapse of Russia 20.4 26.6 22.4 30.8 20.8 27.3 23.1 17.5
Other 0.4 0.9 0.3 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.6 2.0
Hard to say 5.3 10.4 5.6 7.6 5.5 9.1 4.3 9.5


https://razumkov.org.ua/napriamky/sotsiologichni-doslidzhennia/otsinka-sytuatsii-v-kraini-dovira-do-sotsialnykh-instytutiv-politykiv-posadovtsiv-ta-gromadskykh-diiachiv-stavlennia-do-vyboriv-vira-v-peremogu-cherven-2024r