Why the risks of a complete blackout have decreased in Ukraine

January 10, 2023

Volodymyr Omelchenko, energy programmes director of Razumkov Centre, explained in an interview with NV why the risks of a complete blackout had decreased in Ukraine.

In his interview for NV, Omelchenko described five reasons for the change in the situation.

The first one is the strengthening of Ukraine's air defence. "Our soldiers have gained experience. Powerful systems have arrived from our partners," the expert noted.

The second reason, he said, is that the Ukrainian armed forces quite effectively strike at the strategic depth of the aggressor's territory, primarily at airfields and other facilities critical for missile launches.

"The third reason: Ukrainian energy workers have learned to better plan their work and to act pre-emptively. This refers to Ukrenergo, generation and distribution system operators. That is, while until December 5 they started working after bombardments, from December 5 they use a different method, acting in advance. This significantly mitigates the consequences of the strikes," said Omelchenko.

The fourth reason for reducing the probability of a complete blackout, according to the expert, is the growing supply of power equipment for Ukraine from different countries and financial support for the purchase of emergency equipment.

He added that the fifth reason lies in the gradual exhaustion of missiles in Russia – it can no longer launch hundreds of missiles at a time and has begun to use its emergency stock.

"So, just before the New Year, we left the zone where the pace of the energy recovery system significantly lagged behind the pace of destruction, and entered the zone where the dynamics of recovery are ahead of the dynamics of damage. There is a high probability that as a result, the system reliability will grow," Omelchenko concluded. 

On January 1, the chairman of the board of Ukrenergo Volodymyr Kudrytskyi admitted the probability of a total blackout in Ukraine as a result of Russian missile attacks, but assessed it as low.




Volodymyr Omelchenko

Director, Energy Programmes

Born in 1967 in Kyiv

Education: Kyiv Politechnic Institute, Department of Chemical Engineering (1992)

Author of over 50 scientific works and op-ed publications. Took part in development and implementation of international energy projects and scientific research in international energy policy


1992 – 1996 — worked in different positions in the mechanical engineering industry

1997 – 1998 — Head Expert of the Division of Oil, Gas and Petroleum Refining Industry of the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine

1998 – 2003 — Naftohaz Ukrayiny National Joint-Stock Company, in Charge of Oil Transportation Section

2004 – 2007 — Chief Consultant at the National Institute of International Security Problems of Ukraine’s NSDC

since February, 2007 — Leading Expert, Razumkov Centre. Director of Energy Programmes since 2013

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