The Director of Energy Programmes at Razumkov Centre, Volodymyr Omelchenko, told UNIAN under what conditions the Russian Federation can ultimately seize the ZNPP, when and how this is possible, and whether there is a legal way to return the plant under Ukraine's control.
The Russian Federation has long been using the occupied Zaporizhia nuclear power plant as a powerful tool of blackmail. After the seizure of the plant, they stole valuable equipment, mined the territory and separate facilities, and purposefully caused all kinds of damage to ZNPP.
Drones hitting the plant's facilities are not uncommon - the last such incident occurred on May 22. More than that, deadly Russian drones and missiles fly above the station.
At the same time, as reported by the head of the Centre for the Study of Occupation Petro Andryushchenko, the Russian Federation is actively building a power transmission line to connect ZNPP to its energy system. This work is allegedly at the final stages and can be completed any day (if not over yet).
Earlier, amid negotiations to end the Russian-Ukrainian war, US President Donald Trump suggested that the US takes part in managing Ukrainian nuclear plants, including ZNPP, if it helps to make peace. The Ukrainian President replied that without Ukraine, the Zaporizhia NPP would not operate.
In an interview for UNIAN, Razumkov Centre Energy Programmes Director Volodymyr Omelchenko reflects whether it is technically feasible to connect ZNPP to the Russian power grid, what goals the Russian Federation is pursuing, what the "switching" of the station will mean for our state, and what opportunities exist for returning ZNPP under Ukrainian control.
The head of the Centre for the Study of Occupation, Petro Andryushchenko, says that the occupiers have already connected ZNPP to the Russian energy system, or will do so in the near future. What does this mean from a technical viewpoint? And how realistic is this in the current conditions?
They are building a power transmission line from the occupied territory to connect the nuclear power plant so that it can power the occupied Ukrainian territory, apparently including Crimea, and the territory of the Russian Federation alike. Russia has involved the US administration in this project, because it realizes that without its support they will not be able to connect the plant to their energy system.
According to the international law, the station is Ukrainian, that is why the Russian Federation proposed to the Trump Administration that the US forces Ukraine to agree to the station's connection to the Russian energy system under the guise that electricity would be partially supplied to Ukraine, partially to Russia, with the US involvement.
In this way, the Russians may use Trump to legalize the plant's operation. They will power it from their territory, and when the units reach full capacity, it will be difficult to stop them, so there will be nowhere to go – the power plant will be powered from Russian territory.
After that, the Russian Federation will shell Ukrainian power lines, disconnect ZNPP from Ukraine and completely switch it to the Russian power system, to power Crimea and other occupied territories. And since the station will be powered only from the occupied territories (this will be the only connection), neither the IAEA nor the US will be able to do anything – they will have to agree that ZNPP works for Russia, for security reasons.
This is their plan. If they manage to implement it, Ukraine will not be able to shell the power lines, because then there will be no alternative power supply for the station, and the Russian Federation will accuse our state of nuclear terrorism.
Back in 2023, the CEO of Ukrhydroenergo, Ihor Syrota, said that without the restoration of the Kakhovka reservoir it would be extremely difficult to restart ZNPP, because the volume of water in the cooling pond is evidently too small for the station operation. How can the Russians deal with this?
They can partially use artesian water and water in the pond. It will be enough for the operation of 2-3 units. I agree that it will be difficult to launch all six units, since a lot of water is needed for cooling, and without the Kakhovka HPP it is not clear how to do this. But I think they will be able to launch 2-3 units, using local water resources.
Is Russia technically capable of "absorbing" such capacity in its system?
At the technical level, they are ready to integrate ZNPP, but they want to legalize it. Without the permission of the IAEA and our regulator, it will be illegal.
If the Russian Federation decides to integrate the station without legalization, what consequences may it face?
Technically, they can power ZNPP, but they realize pretty well that something can "accidentally" happen to the power lines to Crimea or Mariupol. Therefore, they cannot launch this project without legalization.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that ZNPP would not be able to operate without Ukraine. In addition, we know that Russian nuclear power plants use different reactor types. Given this, what are the risks of the Russians launching the plant?
Russian specialists cannot service ZNPP because it differs from Russian NPPs. Each unit at ZNPP has certain individual characteristics known only to Ukrainian specialists. They will have to find personnel. Before the seizure, 11 thousand people worked at ZNPP, now – less than 3 thousand. When it is in a cold shutdown, this may be enough, but when it starts working, they will have to recruit more personnel.
Launching ZNPP without qualified specialists leads to risks of accidents. Perhaps they want to launch this station not so much to supply electricity to the occupied territories, but to blackmail Ukraine and the world.
If the Russians ultimately "take" the station, is there a legal way to return it?
Lavrov and Kiriyenko have made it clear that they will never surrender the station, so they will definitely not hand it over voluntarily. It can be liberated either militarily, or the Russian Federation will be economically unable to maintain it, or the Russian government will change and return to civilization.
Do you think that such a "switch" will become a precedent for tougher sanctions? For example, against Rosatom?
Rosatom participated in the terrorist seizure of the plant, but so far, it is not sanctioned. They continue to supply nuclear fuel to the US, European countries, Turkey. No one is ready to put pressure on Rosatom. Moreover, it is not easy to replace nuclear fuel supplied by them. Most countries are guided by pragmatic interests.
The issue here is not in sanctions, but in the fact that by legalizing the seizure of ZNPP, the Russians can legalize the occupied territories. If the plant is legalized, they will say to the world: "Look, America agreed, Ukraine agreed. This means that it’s all ours." That is their game. That is why they involved the US and proposed joint management of the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant through the Fund (meaning the newly created US-Ukrainian Reconstruction Investment Fund, established under the agreement on joint mining of Ukrainian minerals — UNIAN).
Energoatom President Petro Kotin said in 2024 that the shelf live of nuclear fuel in the ZNPP reactors was expiring, and warned about the risks of emergency situations. What did he mean, and what are the possible risks now?
Indeed, fuel has a certain shelf life. If it expires, it must be reloaded and removed. How can this issue be resolved today? I don’t know. I cannot assess the risk of emergency situations.
If ZNPP is eventually brought back under Ukrainian control, when can we expect the plant to resume operation, given the current situation?
No one can say exactly when the plant will be operational. I think it will take at least 1.5-2 years, possibly more, as demining will be required, the condition of the equipment must be checked, a lot of equipment replaced, additional personnel recruited, because it is not enough for the station to function normally.
There is a lot of work, and it is very expensive. But for now, the return of ZNPP under the control of Ukraine is only a theoretical scenario. The Russian Federation will not voluntarily give up the station. This is possible only if the government changes there, and the country returns to civilization.
Yaroslav Konoshchuk
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