Talks about the imminent deoccupation of the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) are nothing but political speculations. President Zelenskyy's words that the Global Peace Summit brought de-occupation of the ZNPP closer were a message to politicians and the wide audience — but they are not backed with any technical measures, any actions of the Russian side, and without this it is impossible to liberate the station peacefully. Meanwhile, the Russian side is absolutely not in the mood for this.

The Summit Declaration emphasizes the need to return control of the Zaporizhia NPP to Kyiv. Today, it is not realistic. This is just a declaration that gives us nothing.

The IAEA has already issued three declarations and three resolutions calling for the withdrawal of Russian troops from the Zaporizhia NPP and its transfer to the full control of Ukraine, but the Russian side completely ignored these calls.

It will also ignore the current declaration. It is naive to expect any consequences after this statement. Russia is not going to make any concessions. We have heard statements of the Russian so-called President, Vladimir Putin, who made it clear that Russia, on the contrary, is increasing the degree of tension and wants to seize more Ukrainian territories.

If we fantasize that the station is de-occupied, we cannot talk about full restoration of its work in the near future. First, it will be necessary to immediately create an international commission, with representatives of the IAEA, the European Atomic Energy Community and other international organizations, to study the condition of the station after Russian occupation. It will be necessary to demine it, because it will probably be completely mined. It can also be assumed that its equipment will not be in the best condition, because the Russians at the station did not bother about its proper maintenance. Therefore, it will be necessary to inspect and assess all this — this cannot be done within a year or two. Many years may pass before we can start thinking about restarting the station — if it is possible at all.

Talks

Today, liberation of ZNPP by political means, that is, through negotiations, is absolutely unrealistic. The station can be liberated militarily, forcing Russia to withdraw from the region. There is no other way now.

Political agreements are also a dubious option, because there is no one to negotiate with and nothing about. Putin has already announced his conditions for the surrender of Ukraine. He is not going to stop and negotiate, he is aiming to capture Ukraine.

This is Russia's strategy, it has not changed and will not change as long as the "KGBist group of comrades" rules the Kremlin.

There were no precedents of seizure of nuclear power plants in the world. No one has ever imagined that it will be possible to occupy a nuclear power plant, to deploy soldiers and weapons there. Even ISIS and other terrorists did not think of this before. Therefore, no documents regimenting operation of nuclear plants provide a mechanism of the plant’s liberation.

Mothballing

The ZNPP has not been operating in normal mode for a long time, and now, it is impossible to say whether it is economically feasible to put it into operation, or whether it is more reasonable to mothball it and not use it at all. No one will answer this now: it is necessary to make a very serious assessment and analysis involving experts and international commissions. This work will be long-term — at least a year to assess the situation, check the equipment, demine the territory.

Today, it is impossible to say when the station can resume operation after de-occupation. Maybe it will be possible to restore operation of some units in 3 years. But there is also an option that never, because critical infrastructure could have been damaged.

It cannot be ruled out that when the Russian troops withdraw from the nuclear power plant, they will detonate something. Today, it is not realistic to say anything concrete about the further fate of the station.

To date, there are no signs that the ZNPP generating capacities will become operational in the near future and give Ukraine an additional energy resource. Perhaps the President of Ukraine has some information unknown to us, but statements that the station will be de-occupied in the coming months, and will resume operation next year, look naive and unrealistic.

https://razumkov.org.ua/komentari/koly-zapratsiuie-deokupovana-zaes-mozhlyvo-nikoly