Ukrainian market of petroleum products: flaws of state regulation and price forecast until the end of December 2023

December 12, 2023

Currently, the Ukrainian oil market is more than 85% dependent on imports, since the main oil refinery in Kremenchuk was destroyed by Russian missiles at the very beginning of the Kremlin's military adventure, in March 2022.

In recent weeks, a noticeable decrease in oil prices has been observed on world exchanges. Say, while on September 28 the price of Brent reached USD107 per barrel, on December 7, it fell to USD76 per barrel, or by 28%. Over years of observation, a certain trend has been configured: when prices on world exchanges rise, this is immediately on from the price tags of Ukrainian gas stations. And on the contrary, when they fall on stock exchanges, the previous figures at gas stations stay high for a long time, or decrease hesitantly.

The price dynamics at Ukrainian gas stations now is no exception, as its reaction to the change in the international markets is too inertial. One reason is kind of an agreement among the largest networks, the other one — the traditional indifference of the Antimonopoly Committee.

However, regardless of these negative factors for consumers, we expect a further decrease in the weighted average prices of gasoline and diesel fuel by the end of December from UAH 54 to UAH 50–52 per litre, and of LNG — from UAH 36 to UAH 28–30 per litre. At the same time, one should take into account the factor of a decrease in seasonal demand and a gradual decrease in tension related to the problem of the Polish-Ukrainian border, which significantly affected the supply of autogas, in contrast to diesel fuel and gasoline, but this factor should not be exaggerated either, because out of the 31 interstate border crossing points between the EU and Ukraine, no more than 6 are blocked (there are only 9 crossings between Ukraine and Poland). That said, gas carriers were not 100% blocked.

Volodymyr Omelchenko

Director, Energy Programmes

Born in 1967 in Kyiv

Education: Kyiv Politechnic Institute, Department of Chemical Engineering (1992)

Author of over 50 scientific works and op-ed publications. Took part in development and implementation of international energy projects and scientific research in international energy policy


1992 – 1996 — worked in different positions in the mechanical engineering industry

1997 – 1998 — Head Expert of the Division of Oil, Gas and Petroleum Refining Industry of the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine

1998 – 2003 — Naftohaz Ukrayiny National Joint-Stock Company, in Charge of Oil Transportation Section

2004 – 2007 — Chief Consultant at the National Institute of International Security Problems of Ukraine’s NSDC

since February, 2007 — Leading Expert, Razumkov Centre. Director of Energy Programmes since 2013

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