Since the beginning of the large-scale aggression, Ukraine has helped the Russian Federation earn about $25 billion by continuing the transit of Russian energy carriers, and since the annexation of Crimea, this amount has reached $200 billion. Recently, MOL and Ukrtransnafta have signed an agreement to continue the transit of oil purchased from Lukoil. Now, it is MOL that officially transports oil across the territory of Ukraine, but Lukoil earns as before, deftly evading Ukrainian sanctions with the assistance of the Ukrainian side.

Meanwhile, Western media report that from January 1, 2025, so-called Azeri gas will be pumped via the territory of Ukraine under a similar scenario, in reality meaning the re-export of Gazprom's resources.

Noteworthy, according to a former member of the Slovakian government, the scheme for the re-export of Russian gas via an Azeri front company was proposed by the Ukrainian side, namely, Naftogaz of Ukraine. In this connection, it is important to note that the issue of continuation or discontinuation of transit should be considered, first of all, from the military-political, not commercial viewpoint of individual economic entities.

The advantages of transit of Russian energy carriers are as follows:

• Ukraine will receive up to $1 billion from transit
• Several thousand jobs will be preserved
• Lower risks of attacks on the gas infrastructure. However, they will stay anyway, as the Russian Air Force attacked gas facilities more than 10 times, despite the transit of Russian gas
• Promises by the governments of Hungary and Slovakia not to put obstacles for electricity supply to Ukraine

The disadvantages of preserving the transit of Russian hydrocarbons include:

• The Russian Federation will earn about $11 billion per year
• It will be hard to explain why international partners should step up sanctions, when Ukraine itself helps the Russian Federation to evade them
• Using large discounts on oil and gas, the Russian Federation will help the Hungarian government to stay in power, which in return retards Ukraine's accession to NATO and the EU, blocks military and financial aid

Meanwhile, energy companies SPP and OMV have so far shown no particular desire to take risks under the scheme with "Azeri" gas, which was offered to them by Naftogaz of Ukraine. The same refers to the Sokar company. Therefore, further transit of gas from Russian deposits via Ukraine in 2025 remains questionable.

https://razumkov.org.ua/komentari/pliusy-ta-minusy-tranzytu-rosiiskoi-nafty-ta-gazu