Silver bullet for the Russian Federation and Crimea. What awaits Ukraine in the coming months

September 02, 2022

Even though the main forces and all attention are concentrated on the battlefields, it is time to think about the future now

The geography of our international support includes not only the collective West, not only the USA, NATO and the European Union. Judging by the number of countries that joined the Crimean Platform forum a week ago, it unites more than 60 nations — almost a third of the UN member states. Since the number of countries that support us is steadily growing (judging by Ramstein), we can speak about a consensus in this camp: Ukraine must not be defeated in this war.

Within this camp of support for Ukraine, practical discussions about countering Russian aggression are still underway. To put it simply (there are many nuances), one part helps Ukraine to inflict a convincing defeat on Russia on its territory. Others still take a more cautious stand, saying that Russia should not be humiliated, because its defeat will involve grave consequences. They see "no defeat" for Ukraine as a difficult compromise for it, first of all, territorial, so as to preserve Ukraine, and at the same time to give Putin a chance to personally save his face at the expense of new captured territories.

What unites these two camps? Both want to avoid expanding the geography of this conflict, a nuclear catastrophe, a third world war.

I have seen a number of posts by known authors saying that on September 8, a decisive Ramstein meeting will take place. In my opinion, it will be a very important meeting. Crucial decisions may be taken there, but it is somewhat naïve to hope that a certain specific step or decision may completely turn the tide of the war. These authors believe that ATACMS long-range missiles will be a silver bullet that will allow the Ukrainians to instantly change the course of the war. I say again, this is wishful thinking. But, returning to the decisions to be made, of course, each decision that extends the list and increases the number of offensive weapons, brings the end desired for us and for the civilised world closer.

There is no synchronisation of sanctions against Russia and supply of weapons to us. Many of the measures taken to counter the Russian aggression are implemented according to certain plans, in pursuance of adopted political decisions. There are certain coordination mechanisms, but the pace of sanctions against Russian hydrocarbons is adjusted so that it does not cause irreparable damage to the European economies, already being in a pre-crisis state.



Oleksiy Melnyk

Co-Director, Foreign Relations and International Security Programmes, Coordinator of International Projects

Born in 1962 in Khmelnytsty Rgn


Royal College of Defence Studies, London, UK (2007)

Air Field Operations Officer School, Biloxy, MS, US (2001)

Squadron Officer School, Montgomery, AL, US (1994)

Defence Language Institute, San Antonio, TX, US (1994)

Chernihiv Higher Military Air Force Academy, Ukraine (1984)


1980 – 2001 — Air Force Active Service (Cadet, Instructor Pilot, Flight Commander, Squadron Commander, Deputy Air Force Base Commander, Participant of two UN peacekeeping operations, Lt.Colonel (Ret)

2001 – 2004 — Razumkov Centre

2004 – 2005 — State Company Ukroboronservice

2005 – 2008 — Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, Head Organisational and Analytical Division — First Assistant to Minister of Defence

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