After signing a peace agreement and the end of hostilities, Russia as the aggressor country may need from several hours to several years to come back to Ukraine with a major war. In fact, the aggressor already has sufficient potential for this, and even more – it has begun preparations for such a scenario. In this situation, it is highly important for Ukraine not to lose its partners, in particular, not to spoil relations with the US, on which our country is critically dependent.
However, the main thing that can influence further developments is what goes on in Ukraine. A policy aimed at strengthening Ukraine, uniting the government and society around a common goal will become a strong positive factor. In turn, the growth of internal contradictions and conflicts can significantly facilitate the task of the foreign aggressor, the co-director of foreign policy programmes, coordinator of international projects of Razumkov Cente, military expert Oleksiy Melnyk said in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA.
– British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said that in the possible talks with Russia, Ukraine should act from a position of strength, while the cessation of hostilities should lead to a just and lasting peace, not just give a pause to the Russian Federation. How long do you think this pause can be? How long may Russia strengthen its military capabilities to be able to resume the active phase of the war? What role can allies play here?
– One cannot but agree with the British prime minister’s words, moreover that he is far from the only official making such warnings. If we talk about the duration of the pause, it can last from several hours to several years, because even today, the Russian potential on the Ukrainian front fully allows Russia to stop hostilities and to resume them immediately.
But if we talk about a longer period of time, then everything is not that simple, because if a truce comes, the ceasefire is not the only product of the truce. From this moment on, certain processes are launched, not only on both sides of the line of contact but also around the conflict.
Let me make one point. In the Russian media, the so-called war bloggers heatedly discuss the danger they see in the event of a freeze in hostilities. They are well aware that stopping the war, even putting it on hold, will lead to a comprehensive demobilization process within Russia itself.
I talk about the part of the Russian military who were mobilized for the war. If they have no contracts signed, then logically they should be sent home. Not for sure, but such a possibility exists, and they are very afraid of it. It is not by chance that a campaign of forced contract signing has been launched in Russia. There are many stories of people simply blackmailed into accepting the fact: either you sign a contract, or we send you on an assault today, and you will not come back. This is a typical Russian offer that apparently few people will be able to refuse.
So they have already started preparations. A number of other initiatives have been launched. That is, Russia is already preparing for this interwar period.
If they manage to use this time effectively, that is, to replenish stocks of military equipment, and sanctions are eased, they will be able to further develop their war machine, from industry to ideology, and yes – it is logical to expect that the potential for Russian aggression will only become stronger within several years or even months. When it is used is only a matter of time.
This is exactly how I see the actions of our foe. The more relevant question is what Ukraine will do, how Ukraine will be able to use this time, whether it will strengthen its capabilities to defend and to deter the aggressor, together with partners, or it will plunge into an internal crisis of strife with political opponents and corruption scandals – that is, with everything that undermines the country's stability and ability to resist.
If such processes take place in Ukraine, if Ukraine weakens internally, the Russians will be able to save a lot.
It is hard to say how our partners will behave, because elections will be held in many countries, involving policy changes – if some of them will join the camp of Hungary and Slovakia, with political forces coming to power with a completely different vision of the Russian-Ukrainian war, of the need to support Ukraine.
That is, the situation is far from unambiguous. But the main question and the main factor that can influence the developments is what goes on in Ukraine. Allies are good. The hope that Russia will collapse is also heartwarming, but the main thing is what is be done here, in Ukraine. Will there be a policy aimed at strengthening Ukraine's resilience, or a repetition of the tragic pages of our history, when internal strife enabled or facilitated the actions of an external aggressor?
– Actually, about what Ukraine should do. [Russian] social commentator Alexander Nevzorov suggests that, against the background of President Trump's obvious misunderstanding of the Kremlin's real goals in this war, Ukraine's refusal of US assistance would be a powerful step. And what security guarantees can we talk about against the background of the discussion of Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic prospects, which obviously do not look optimistic? Can the restoration of our nuclear status be considered?
– It is hard to say how friendly this advice is. To put it in simple terms: for example, a teenage child demands more independence, parents usually say - okay, if you want independence, then first be ready to pay for your independence. Because rights always go hand in hand with responsibilities.
If we are talking about a Ukraine independent from the US, there should be a very careful balance. Along with the fact that Ukraine must clearly defend its position, emphasize its sovereignty and independence, we must understand where that line is, because today, a lot depends on the US. We strongly depend on the US economically, financially, in terms of military assistance and geopolitically.
Thus, now, perhaps, we should not push the US away from us, so that they do not tell us at some point: well, if you are so independent, we wash our hands, and you deal with Russia yourself.
If we talk about the other extremity, there is indeed a danger that at some point the ardent desire for such solutions may prevail over Ukraine’s long-term security goals. This risk is similarly high.
Turning to security guarantees, it is obvious that we must do everything possible for the US to remain on our side. In what form will it provide support to Ukraine? This is also a matter of negotiations. The head of the Pentagon said that they have the option of direct military involvement in the conflict on the table. This is even being discussed. US investments are also being discussed, which will strengthen our partner's interest in defending the territory and sovereignty of Ukraine. This is one possible aspect.
The second aspect concerns our European and other Western partners. Here, we should make every effort to maintain friendly relations, not to make new enemies and to minimize the tension that occasionally occurs in relations with unfriendly governments.
To sum up: today, the only real ally of the Ukrainian authorities is Ukrainian society. All emphasis should be placed on fostering the spirit of a single team. The Ukraine’s leader, Zelenskyy, should address Ukrainian society first, and next – the foreign audience. This is just one step. And not do anything that might cause discord in Ukrainian society.
