Five Factors of Victory. Why Will the Battle for Donbas Be Decisive?

What determines the duration of the war and how long will it last?

The duration of the war depends on many factors:

First, on the strength of our armed forces.

Second, on the ability of our economy to maintain the combat capability of our armed forces. And the provision of military-technical assistance by the West will be particularly important.

Third, it depends on the effectiveness of Western sanctions and the West’s willingness not only to impose them but also to make sure that Russia does not circumvent them.

Fourth, it depends on political solidarity and the creation of an anti-Russian coalition.

Fifth, the war will also depend on domestic Russian factors.

Mykola Sunhurovskyi

Director, Military Programmes

Born in 1951 in Moscow.


Orenburg Higher Military Air Defence Forces School (1972);

Kyiv Air Defence Forces Academy (1982);

Higher School of Entrepreneurship, Kyiv Institute of National Economy (1991).

Ph. D. in Technical Sciences, Senior Research Fellow, the author of more than 90 publications.

Colonel (Ret.) with 31 years of military service, half of that term — at research institutions. Research profile — systems analysis, strategic planning, analysis methods, national security.


Most recent position in state bodies — Department Chief at the Analytical Service of Ukraine's NSDC Staff;

Since December 1999 — Razumkov Centre Programme Co-ordinator;

Since February 2000 — Freelance Consultant to the National Security and Defence Committee of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine.

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