How the prices of petrol, diesel and LPG car fuel will change in Ukraine: forecast for September

September 02, 2022

In September 2022, the price of petrol and diesel fuel in Ukraine is not expected to rise. At the same time, there is a margin for lowering LPG car fuel prices.

Maksym Bielawski, Razumkov Center’s leading expert on energy programmes, said this in a comment for RBC-Ukraine.

Price stability

As the expert noted, starting from mid-August, the global market of petroleum products sees a decrease in the margin of petrol producers, which indicates stabilisation of this segment. A similar trend can be observed in the diesel fuel segment, but with a smaller gradient.

"In general, we should not expect an increase in the price of petroleum products in September, on the contrary, stabilisation of petrol and diesel prices should take place at a level of 52 and 57 hryvnias per litre, respectively," Mr Bielawski said. 

According to him, the situation will further improve due to competition among traders, who, judging by the August results, have more than 300 counterparties.

The expert believes that introduction of a unified excise tax (100 euros per 1,000 litres) on petrol, diesel fuel and LPG "will only slow down the price reduction of petroleum products and will not have a decisive effect on the fuel price rise."

Transparency of pricing

As Mr Bielawski noted, pricing of petrol and diesel fuel is transparent. This is evidenced by the following: Compared to the petroleum product markets of the EU and Turkey, the maximum retail price of petrol in Ukraine (1.35 euros per litre) corresponds to indicative figures of Poland and Moldova. A similar parity is observed in the maximum retail price of diesel fuel — 1.45 euros per litre.

"At the same time, analysis of the maximum retail prices for LPG car fuel (propane-butane) in the EU and Ukraine indicates the potential for reducing the price of this fuel in Ukraine by up to 7%," the expert added.

Autumn forecast

Mr Bielawski believes that in the medium term of three months, there may be a slight increase in the price of petroleum products (in October, petrol and diesel fuel will reach 53 and 58 UAH per litre, respectively) solely due to the decline in the national currency exchange rate. 

He also expects thatthe rate of decline in oil prices will, most likely,  slow down in September, in particular due to the increase in the fees for passage of tankers through the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles.

We remind you that on August 30, the Verkhovna Rada adopted in the first reading the bill on reestablishment of excise taxes on petrol, diesel and LPG car fuel. Excise duties on petrol and diesel fuel will make 100 euros per 1,000 litres, on LPG car fuel — 52 euros per 1,000 litres 

In an interview with RBC-Ukraine, the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Finance, Tax and Customs Policy Danylo Hetmantsev said that the Ukrainian authorities decided to partially return fuel excise taxes that were cancelled in the spring of 2022. At the same time, VAT will remain at the level of 7%, instead of 20%, as it was before the war.


Maksym Bielawski

Leading Expert, Energy Programmes

Born in 1986 in Zhytomyr oblast


Zhytomyr State Technological University (2008)

Ph.D in Technical Science (2010)

Ivano-Frankivsk National Technical University of Oil and Gas (2012)

Author of 17 patents and 100 scientific works

Work Experience:

2008 – 2011 — Operator of Gas Infrastructure Units, Controller of Gas Transmission System in Rivne Division of PJSC "Ukrtransgas"

2011 – 2017 — Leading Engineer, Deputy Head of Press-Service, Head of Public Relation Department of PJSC "Ukrtransgas"

2017 – 2018 — HR Director of PJSC "Maine Gas Pipelines of Ukraine", Advisor to the Minister of Energy and Coal Industry of Ukraine

2021 — Director of Integrated Communications of NJSC "Naftogaz of Ukraine"