During the forthcoming heating season, it will be more important to have more weapons, especially air defence systems, than to import energy resources.

Time has come for the Ministry of Energy and the CMU to get real. In recent days, many loud statements have been heard from the Energy Ministry regarding the possibility of electricity exports from Ukraine to the EU in huge quantities, replacing 5 BCM of gas per year.

However, for some reason the real energy balance is not taken into account. Ukraine has already lost more than 10 GW of generating capacities due to the purposeful destruction of the energy infrastructure by Ruscists, or its seizure (ZNPP, Zaporizhia TPP, Vuhlehirsk TPP, Slovyansk TPP, Luhansk TPP, Kurakhiv TPP, Kakhovka HPP, 70% of RES, etc.).

So, if Ukraine fails to take back Enerhodar, the heart of the Ukrainian power engineering industry, it will have to think not about exporting, but about importing electrical energy in winter. Even if the Armed Forces liberate the occupied territories (we all believe in it), the problem will not go away, because a terrorist is a terrorist — he is unlikely to leave infrastructure facilities in an operable state.

Due to the historic drop in gas and electricity demand due to the war, there should be no extremely difficult resource problem in the heating season of 2022–2023. Meanwhile, the biggest risk will be presented by missile strikes on thermal power plants, co-generation heat and power plants, and, possibly. nuclear power plants.

Therefore, emphasis should be made not on gas purchases in excessive volumes under lend-lease but on supply of advanced air defence systems to protect the energy infrastructure, and offensive weapons to free Ukraine from Ruscism.