Sociologists (or, rather, pollsters) in many countries like to ask respondents "Are the events in our country developing in the right or wrong direction?". Say, last July, a poll conducted in the USA (the Center Square Voters' Voice Poll) showed that 65% of US voters believed that their country was moving in a wrong direction, and only 24% — in the right direction.

Approximately the same was most often observed in Ukraine. The exception was short bursts of social optimism after the election of a new President. For example, in September 2019, a few months after V. Zelenskyy came to power, 57% of respondents answered that things were going in the right direction, and only 17% said that they were moving in a wrong direction. However, with time, the level of social optimism began to decline again. Before the start of Russia's large-scale aggression (in December 2021), the majority (65.5%) of respondents answered that events in Ukraine were developing in a wrong direction, and only 20% of respondents called the development of events correct.

After the start of the full-scale war, the share of those who believed that events were developing in the right direction significantly increased, compared to "pre-war" indicators. According to the poll conducted by Razumkov Centre in September–October, 2022, 51% of respondents suggested that events in Ukraine were developing in the right direction, and only 28% — in a wrong direction.

If the growth of social optimism connected with the change of power can be easily explained by hopes for positive changes associated with the new government, the growth of confidence that events are developing in the right direction, caused by the war, looks paradoxical.

However, the thing is that we are talking not about the assessment of the current situation but about the trend. And the improvement in these ratings was most likely caused by the following factors:

• Cohesion of society, caused by the need to fight an external enemy;
• A clear goal of society development and social action, with victory as the key concept;
• Society has developed clear ideas in terms of "fried or foe", making it clear ​​what needs to be done.

Noteworthy that, for example, while in September–October 2022, among those who would vote for Ukraine's accession to the European Union at a possible referendum, 55% answered that events were developing in the right direction, and only 26% — in a wrong direction, among those who would vote against accession, the majority believed that events were moving in a wrong direction (28% and 53%, respectively).

The higher the level of trust in the authorities (including the President) was, the greater was the share of those who believed that events were developing in the right direction (according to the poll held in September–October 2022, their share ranged from 30% among those who did not trust the President at all to 64% among those who completely trusted him; according to the poll conducted in June 2024, from 13% to 66%, respectively).

The share of citizens who believed that events in Ukraine were developing in the right direction reached maximum in February–March 2023 (61%). After that, a downward trend of this indicator was observed. According to the poll conducted by Razumkov Centre in June, 2024, the share of those who believed that events in Ukraine were developing in the right direction has become smaller than the share of those who held the opinion that they were moving in a wrong direction (33% and 47%, respectively), although their ratio still remained better than before the start of the full-scale war (20% and 65.5%, respectively, in December 2021).

Generally speaking, do you think that the events in Ukraine are developing in the right or wrong direction?, %

It seemed that nothing could stop the growing trend of pessimistic assessments, but the poll held on August 8 to 15 this year by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation together with the Razumkov Centre Sociological Service showed an increase in optimistic assessments compared to June — now, 40% believe that events are developing in the right direction, and 37% — in a wrong one.

Moreover, it is even possible to establish the exact date when this "turn" occurred in the mass consciousness of Ukrainians — August 10: while the assessments of those who were polled on August 8 and 9 did not statistically differ from those of June (29% believed that events were developing in the right direction, 47% — in a wrong direction), those who were interviewed from August 10 to 15 largely produced optimistic assessments (41% and 36%, respectively). That is, literally overnight, the share of optimists increased by 12%.

And this is despite the fact that all the problems brought by the war are in place, including night (and for many, day) bombings, and the "crawling" advance of the enemy in Donetsk region. There is only one event we can refer to to explain such a change in mood — the offensive of the Defence Forces in the Kursk direction. Therefore, since there is no definition of the "right direction", in this particular case, the Kursk direction proved to be "right".

Of course, no one (including the author of this article) knows how events will develop in the future and to what extent this optimism will be confirmed by further developments. But these data answer one important question — what exactly Ukrainian society needs. As it turned out, not "appeasement at any price" (which many in the world like to talk about), but victories, at least local.

https://razumkov.org.ua/statti/yakyi-napriam-pravylnyi