What to Expect from Russia Anytime Soon?

April 03, 2022

Today one cannot rule out any worst-case scenarios

If we look at what was happening in recent days and what can be expected, we must first assume that Russia’s statements about the reduction of its military activity in the Kyiv and Chernihiv areas are not a gesture of goodwill. Instead, it is a forced step prompted by strong opposition from the Ukrainian armed forces and Ukraine’s resistance in general. It is not a question of a ceasefire — it is rather a forced retreat, which Russia will try to compensate by other means, in particular, by more active use of artillery or missile systems outside the reach of Ukrainian countermeasures. And also, by the concentration of its troops in the Donbas.

Oleksiy Melnyk

Co-Director, Foreign Relations and International Security Programmes, Coordinator of International Projects

Born in 1962 in Khmelnytsty Rgn


Royal College of Defence Studies, London, UK (2007)

Air Field Operations Officer School, Biloxy, MS, US (2001)

Squadron Officer School, Montgomery, AL, US (1994)

Defence Language Institute, San Antonio, TX, US (1994)

Chernihiv Higher Military Air Force Academy, Ukraine (1984)


1980 – 2001 — Air Force Active Service (Cadet, Instructor Pilot, Flight Commander, Squadron Commander, Deputy Air Force Base Commander, Participant of two UN peacekeeping operations, Lt.Colonel (Ret)

2001 – 2004 — Razumkov Centre

2004 – 2005 — State Company Ukroboronservice

2005 – 2008 — Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, Head Organisational and Analytical Division — First Assistant to Minister of Defence

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