Review of the Razumkov Centre expert poll "Problems of the energy sector and ways of their solution in wartime"

The expert poll was conducted by the Razumkov Centre Sociological Service on February 26 — March 15, 2023. Experts from think tanks, university professors, energy sector specialists from regional and city administrations, representatives of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine staff and the President of Ukraine Office were polled.

The experts were asked about the passage of the autumn-winter period of 2022–2023, operation of the electricity and natural gas markets, performance of state bodies in the energy sector, as well as future development of the branch.

The experts highly praised the energy companies’ efforts at overcoming the challenges caused by the massive Russian missile attacks on the energy infrastructure. All 100% of the respondents confirmed that the Ukrainian energy industry coped with the task of providing electricity to the country during the autumn-winter period in extremely difficult conditions.

Most of the polled experts do not approve administrative regulation of prices in the electricity market (56%) for households and businesses, as it will not help attract the necessary investments to ensure the reliability and development of Ukraine's energy infrastructure.


Do you think that the existing system of administrative regulation of electricity prices for households and businesses encourages investment in the reliability and development of Ukraine's energy infrastructure?

Yes

44.0

No

40.0

Hard to say

16.0


Assessing the work of the current NEURC, 60% of respondents believes that the Commission is independent and self-reliant, while only a bit more than half (52%) called it impartial and unbiased in its decisions.


To what extent does the work of the current NEURC (Regulator) correspond to each of the following basic principles of Article 4 of the Law of Ukraine "On the National Energy and Utilities Regulatory Commission"?

Mark one answer in each line

Fully corresponds

Mostly corresponds

Mostly does not correspond

Does not correspond at all

Hard to say

Self-reliance and independence

20.0

40.0

24.0

12.0

4.0

Competence

28.0

48.0

8.0

8.0

8.0

Impartiality in decision-making

16.0

36.0

20.0

20.0

8.0

Non-discrimination

12.0

44.0

8.0

8.0

8.0

Publicity and transparency

24.0

32.0

20.0

16.0

8.0


Less than half of those polled believe in the ability of JSC "Ukrgazvydobuvannya" to increase natural gas production to 20 billion cubic meters by 2030. Noteworthy, according to the Concept of the Gas Production Industry Development (approved by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine Resolution No. 1079 of December 28, 2016), this target was to be reached as early as 2020.

Respondents gave Naftogaz of Ukraine a fairly low rating for promoting the development of a transparent and competitive gas market, meeting the EU standards. Only 32% of respondents believes that the existing model of Naftogaz of Ukraine operation is good in the mentioned context, while 52% considers it necessary to restructure the Company. 

It should be noted that the Razumkov Centre poll revealed a negative expert assessment of the situation with corruption in central authorities and state-owned companies — 84% of respondents confirmed that such a problem really exists, while 40% believes that corruption is quite widespread or pervasive.


How can you assess the level of corruption in central state authorities and state-owned energy companies?

Corruption is absent

0.0

There are occasional instances of corruption

44.0

Corruption is rather common

20.0

Everything is permeated with corruption

20.0

Hard to say

16.0 


Importantly, the poll confirmed that Ukrainian experts understand the current European trends in the energy sector evolution towards decarbonization and transition to a carbon-free economy, as 88% of respondents believes in strong or moderate development of the RES sector in Ukraine by 2035. Instead, only 48% of respondents believes that the current system of state regulation of the electricity market encourages it.


How do you think the importance of different types of electricity generation will change in course of the Ukrainian energy system restructuring through 2035?

Types of generation:

It will substantially grow

It will moderately grow

It will remain unchanged

It will slightly decrease

It will substantially decrease

Hard to say

RES (solar, wind, bio power plants)

52.0

36.0

12.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

TPPs and CHPPs

16.0

12.0

24.0

36.0

4.0

8.0

Nuclear energy

0.0

36.0

36.0

4.0

20.0

4.0

Hydro power

24.0

32.0

24.0

16.0

0.0

4.0


https://razumkov.org.ua/statti/analiz-ekspertnogo-opytuvannia-tsentra-razumkova-problemy-energetychnoi-sfery-ta-shliakhy-ikh-vyrishennia-v-umovakh-viiny

Volodymyr Omelchenko

Director, Energy Programmes


Born in 1967 in Kyiv

Education: Kyiv Politechnic Institute, Department of Chemical Engineering (1992)

Author of over 50 scientific works and op-ed publications. Took part in development and implementation of international energy projects and scientific research in international energy policy

Employment:

1992 – 1996 — worked in different positions in the mechanical engineering industry

1997 – 1998 — Head Expert of the Division of Oil, Gas and Petroleum Refining Industry of the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine

1998 – 2003 — Naftohaz Ukrayiny National Joint-Stock Company, in Charge of Oil Transportation Section

2004 – 2007 — Chief Consultant at the National Institute of International Security Problems of Ukraine’s NSDC

since February, 2007 — Leading Expert, Razumkov Centre. Director of Energy Programmes since 2013

(044) 206-85-02

omelchenko@razumkov.org.ua

volodymyr.omelchenko