Russia lost 20–25% of all its current oil refining capacities. Capacities equivalent to more than 60 million tonnes a year are no longer operational, and it is unknown when they will be restored — Volodymyr Omelchenko, Razumkov Centre energy programmes director, comments attacks on Russian refineries on the Ukrainian Radio. He notes that Russia still receives revenues mainly from crude oil exports, and it is necessary to destroy their economic potential by November-December. He mentioned four sensitive points that may allow Ukraine to accomplish this task: Crimea, cutting transport arteries and infrastructure. Moscow, as the key region — if economic problems arise there, this will affect the political situation throughout Russia. Oil refineries and the oil and petroleum product export system, covering the Baltic Sea, the Black Sea, and key oil pumping stations.

Russia lost 20–25% of all its current oil refining capacities

The intensity of attacks on refineries in the Russian Federation is increasing and deepening. Distance is not much of a problem for Ukraine now. Panic in Russia is good. When the enemy panics, he makes mistakes. And we help him with this.

Attacks on Russian refineries, on the Russian oil product supply system in general, continue — and we see good results. The Moscow oil refinery in Kapotnya, with a capacity of 12 million tons a year, is completely out of operation. It will be idle for at least one year. In total, the losses of oil refining capacities in Russia are estimated at 20-25% of all their available facilities. Over 60 million tons of processing per year have been discontinued, and no one knows when they will be restored. If drone and missile attacks are stopped or paused, then Russia will gradually restore its capacities. It is important that drone operations go up, not down. Then Russia will ever more feel the danger for its energy system as a whole and for the petroleum product supply in particular. This will make Russia more ready to end hostilities, at least.

To destroy oil exports

Is this a long game, but with a big trump card for us?

Yes. Focus on oil refineries alone really creates a serious psychological effect for Russia, but if will not lead to a financial collapse. Russia earns money not from petroleum products on the domestic market, but mainly from crude oil exports. In May alone, Russia received 548 million euros per day from oil exports. The Russian budget and the Russian economy do not make much money on the domestic market. They spend big sums to compensate for the difference in prices. According to their budget rule, the Russian budget covers the price difference between the external and internal markets in order to keep petroleum product prices more or less stable. Huge sums are spent from the state budget to this end. We should not forget the psychological effect of attacks on oil refineries and the fact that they create a deficit. Without destroying the export structure, attacks on oil refineries alone will not be enough.

Other Russian refineries, Belarus, Central Asia and Pacific

Where can the occupiers get additional supplies?

They can supply petroleum products to Moscow from other refineries — there is a Moscow ring of petroleum product pipelines around Moscow. This ring can admit oil from the Ryazan, Yaroslavl and other refineries. But this will lead to a shortage in other Russian regions. Russia is currently looking for opportunities to cover the shortage of gasoline from other countries, because they have more or less normal diesel fuel supply, not in all regions though. They have a double surplus, as they produce twice as much diesel fuel as they consume. But the situation with gasoline is different — they produced only 5–10% more than they consumed, and now, they have a shortage of 95 gasoline — 10–15%. So, they are trying to cover it, first of all, through Belarus using a tolling scheme: they supply oil and get petroleum products in the opposite direction. Petroleum product supply from Belarus to Russia increased 5 to 7-fold over the past year. They can also use the same tolling schemes with the countries of Central Asia, and several tankers are even carrying gasoline from the Pacific region countries.

Our task is to stop the war by December

What will the situation be like in a month or two, before the elections to the State Duma in the fall?

It depends on our long-range weapons, long-range sanctions. If they continue, the situation will be quite difficult. If Russia does not change its economic model of petroleum product supply, the difference in prices will be financed from the budget, and the deficit will cover most of Russia, most regions.

Our task is to stop the war by winter, by December. Why? In the winter, Russia may have an advantage, shelling our energy sector, our heat-and-power plants. We are well aware of this. Therefore, by November–December, their economic potential and the main source of budget revenues — oil and gas sector — should be destroyed to such an extent that Russia might want to continue the war, but have no capabilities. In this regard, there are major sensitive points that can allow Ukraine to accomplish this task. This is, first of all, Crimea, where cutting off transport arteries may force Russia to start serious negotiations. Also, Moscow — it is a key region. If economic problems arise there, they will affect the political situation throughout Russia. Thirdly, oil refineries. Fourthly, the system of oil and petroleum product export, first of all, in the Baltic Sea, the Black Sea, and key oil pumping stations.

Can we knock out the absolute majority of oil storage facilities?

This is hardly possible, because they have a vast oil storage system not only on surface but also underground. There are underground storage facilities for oil and petroleum products. There are also idle storage capacities in the Transneft system beyond the Urals, not easy to get to. Therefore, we will not knock out 90%. There is no need to do this.

There is also no need to destroy the Crimean Bridge, spending many missiles. It is enough to destroy the infrastructure that leads to this bridge from both sides. It is much cheaper and more effective than spending much more expensive missiles and drones on this bridge, because it is very heavily protected. In addition, we need to address the Crimean residents, with the international community, saying that Ukraine is ready to stop these actions if Russia agrees to real peace talks, to a cessation of hostilities on the entire front and an end to the war. And that Ukraine is ready to deliver humanitarian cargo to the Crimean population if Russia really stops its madness and agrees to end the war.

There are two large oil refineries in Belarus. They are clearly helping Russia. What can we do with them?

There are two refineries: the Mozyr refinery, and the Novopolotsk refinery in the north. A political decision should be made taking into account all aspects, all components. If Lukashenka is more aggressive and does not agree to the Ukrainian proposals but builds up his grouping on the Ukrainian border, cooperates with Russia, then Ukraine can burn these two refineries. There is an even more important facility — a potash fertilizer plant. It is the main source of hard currency for Belarus. If all three of these main facilities are destroyed, the Belarusian economy will completely collapse. Therefore, the very threat of using weapons against these facilities is sometimes stronger than action. This should cool the Potato Führer down and ensure stability and security for Ukraine.

https://razumkov.org.ua/statti/vtraty-naftopererobnykh-potuzhnostei-v-rosii-stanovliat-20-25protsent