Public opinion polls: do respondents say what they really think?

Recently, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology released the results of a survey conducted last December regarding the trust of Ukrainians in the results of public opinion polls. Answering the question "Do you trust the results of public opinion polls conducted by long-established institutions that release the results of their surveys?", 53% of respondents said "yes", only 10% said "no", the rest remained undecided.

As noted by the Director General of the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, Volodymyr Paniotto, trust in public opinion polls depends both on people's assessment of their quality and on the political context. In particular, he writes: "If the poll results do not meet expectations or political sympathies of people or politicians, instead of questioning their own ideas, a significant part of the audience is inclined to blame sociologists."

It should be added that distrust of the results of public opinion polls can be caused not only by perceptions of unprofessionalism or political bias of sociologists, but also by the belief that people themselves give insincere answers when answering sociologists' questions. Those who believe that people for some reason do not want to speak sincerely on socially sensitive (including political) topics (including during public opinion polls) will trust their results to a lesser extent.

During a poll conducted by the Razumkov Centre Sociological Service with support from the Konrad Adenauer Foundation Office Ukraine in November 2025, respondents were asked: "Do you think that during public opinion polls, people more often answer honestly, saying what they really think, or insincerely, hiding their thoughts?". 52% of respondents said that in their opinion, during public opinion polls people tend to answer sincerely, say what they really think, 24% - that they more often speak insincerely, hide their opinion (the rest was undecided). As we can see, the share of those who believe that people answer honestly during polls is practically the same as the share of those who, according to KIIS, trust public opinion poll results. 

The belief that respondents are insincere during public opinion polls is more pronounced among people dissatisfied with the authorities and their actions - among those who are convinced of the sincerity of respondents, 55% trust the President of Ukraine, 39% distrust him, while among those who are convinced of their insincerity, on the contrary, the majority (57%) do not trust the President, and only 38% trust him. 

In general, the tendency to not believe in the sincerity of people who answer public opinion polls is characteristic of those whose opinion contradicts the "mainstream", dominant public opinion in the country. That said, among those who trust the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 53% believe in the sincerity of respondents in surveys, 22% do not believe in it, while among those who do not trust the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they make 43% and 42%, respectively. That is, a significant part of those who do not trust the Armed Forces of Ukraine casts doubt on the public opinion poll data about the strong trust in the AFU in society (in general, 91% of those polled  trust the Armed Forces of Ukraine), suggesting that the majority simply does not dare to express their "real" (in their opinion) attitude to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

It is interesting to compare the results in Ukraine with those obtained in Russia. According to a survey conducted by the Russian state research organization VCIOM in August 2025, 49% of the polled Russians believe that during public opinion polls people more often answer sincerely, say what they really think, 34% - that they answer insincerely, hide their opinion (17% were undecided). As we can see, the share of those who are convinced of the insincerity of respondents in Russia is noticeably higher than in Ukraine (where they make 24%).

The most sceptical are young people under the 23 (40% of them believe that people answer honestly, and the majority (53%) - that they hide their opinion). According to the poll data, Russian youths make the most sceptical group of the population regarding the authorities.

Reluctance to watch Russian TV (which is characteristic primarily of opposition-minded people) also affects the belief in the sincerity of respondents. Among those who never or almost never watch it, only 40% believe that Russian citizens answer honestly during polls, while among those who watch it on a daily basis – 54%.

 

Source:
https://razumkov.org.ua/statti/sotsiologichni-doslidzhennia-chy-govoriat-respondenty-te-shcho-naspravdi-dumaiut

Mykhailo Mischenko

Deputy Director, Sociological Service


Born in 1962 in Kyiv

Education: Taras Shevchenko Kyiv State University, Faculty of Philosophy (1984). Ph. D in Philosophy

Empoyment:

1984 – 1990 — Sociology Department at the Institute of Philosophy of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine

1990 – 1998 — Institute of Sociology of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine

1998 – 2003 — Ukrainian Institute of Social Research

February – September 2003 — Kyiv International Institute of Sociology

Since October 2003 — Deputy Director, Razumkov Centre Sociological Service

(044) 201-11-94

mishchenko@razumkov.org.ua