Assessing the situation in the country, trust in social institutions, politicians, public officials, and society figures, and belief in victory (September, 2024)

October 18, 2024

 

The results of a sociological survey conducted from September 20th to 26th, 2024 by Razumkov Centre's Sociological Service as part of its project implemented under the USAID/ENGAGE activity, which is funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and implemented by Pact. The contents of this survey are the sole responsibility of Pact and its implementing partners and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.

The face-to-face survey was conducted in the Vinnytsia, Volyn, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zhytomyr, Zakarpattia, Zaporizhzhia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Kharkiv, Kherson, Khmelnytsky, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Chernivtsi oblasts, and in the city of Kyiv. In the Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson oblasts, it was conducted only in the territories under the control of Ukrainian military forces, where no active armed conflict is taking place.

The survey was conducted using stratified multistage sampling with random selection at the first sampling stages and using a quota method of respondent selection at the final stage (when respondents were selected according to gender and age quotas).  The sample structure represents the demographic pattern of the adult population in the areas where the survey was conducted as of the beginning of 2022 (by age, gender, type of urban/rural classification).  

2,016 respondents over the age of 18 were surveyed. The theoretical sampling error does not exceed 2.3%. At the same time, additional systematic sample deviations may be caused by the consequences of the Russian military's destruction, most notably the forced displacement of millions of citizens.

Assessing the situation in the country

After Russia launched its full-scale invasion against Ukraine in 2022, the share of citizens considering that events in Ukraine were developing in the right direction increased significantly (from 20% in December 2021 to 51% in September–October 2022, with the highest indicators in February–March 2023 (61%). Later, a decreasing trend for this indicator decrease was observed. Thus, according to a sociological survey conducted in June 2024, the share of those who believe that events in Ukraine are developing in the right direction has decreased in comparison to those who believe that they are developing in the wrong direction (33% and 47%, respectively). That said, according to the survey conducted in the first half of August 2024, the share of those who believed that events were developing in the right direction increased to 40% (this survey was held while the Armed Forces of Ukraine was launching its offensive into Kursk Oblast), while by the end of September these indicators had subsided (33% and 48%, respectively) back to the level of June 2024. However, this ratio is better than the same observed before the 2022 full-scale invasion (in December 2021, 20% and 65.5%, respectively).  

30% of Ukrainians believe that Ukraine is capable of overcoming current problems and difficulties within the next few years, 46% believe that Ukraine will be able to overcome problems in the more distant future, and 11% believe that Ukraine is not capable of overcoming current problems (the rest are undecided). Ukrainians were most optimistic about the problems and difficulties being possibly overcome at the end of 2022 and at the beginning of 2023 (for example, in February – March 2023: 49%, 36%, and 3%, respectively). In comparison, estimates prior to the 2022 invasion (in December 2021: 18%, 54%, and 18%, respectively) were much more pessimistic.

Assessing authorities: how well have they been performing their functions during the war

According to the citizens, the authorities are dealing with issues in the following areas best: energy supply (55% of respondents answered that the authorities have been coping “very well” or “rather well,” 39.5% – “very poorly” or “rather poorly”); education (50% and 38%, respectively); and foreign policy (50% and 38%, respectively). In these three areas, positive attitudes outweigh negative ones. Positive and negative attitudes are mostly equal in two areas: national defense (47% and 47%, respectively) and health care (47% and 47.5%, respectively).

The authorities' performance is more often negatively evaluated in the following areas: anti-corruption (82% of respondents answered that the government is performing “very poorly” or “rather poorly,” and only 12% – “very well” or “rather well”); the economy (69% and 24%, respectively); justice (69% and 16%, respectively); crime prevention (66% and 23%, respectively); recovery of the country (56% and 27%, respectively); and social protection and pension benefits (54% and 38%, respectively).

 

Trust in social institutions

Among the government and civil society institutions, the most trusted are the Armed Forces of Ukraine (91.5% of respondents trust the military), the State Emergency Service (83%), volunteer organizations (80%), volunteer units (79.5%), the National Guard of Ukraine (74%), the State Border Guard Service (70%), the Security Service of Ukraine (64%), the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (63%), the Clergy (62.5%), and civil society organizations (59%).

Trust prevails over distrust for the National Bank of Ukraine (50% and 39%, respectively), the National Police of Ukraine (50% and 41%, respectively), the President of Ukraine (48.5% and 44.5%, respectively), and the Commissioner for Human Rights of the Verkhovna Rada (Ombudsman) (42% and 34%, respectively).

The heads of the city (or town, village) (47% and 45%, respectively) and the council of the city (town, village) where the respondent resides (45% and 46%, respectively) are trusted and distrusted equally.

Most respondents distrust the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine (78.5% do not trust), the state apparatus (public officials) (77%), political parties (73.5%), the Government of Ukraine (72.5%), courts (the judicial system in general) (70%), the Prosecutor's Office (63%), the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (58%), the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (58%), the National Agency on Corruption Prevention (57%), commercial banks (55%), the State Bureau of Investigation (53%), and the Economic Security Bureau of Ukraine (51%).

Distrust also prevails over trust in relation to the mass media of Ukraine (48% do not trust, 45% trust) and trade unions (46% and 26%, respectively).

Even though political parties are trusted by only 15% of respondents when answering the question of whether they believe that any of the current political forces can be entrusted with power in the post-war period, more respondents answered affirmatively (27%). However, this is significantly less than in July 2023 (38.5%). 54% and 41%, respectively, answered negatively.

Most citizens believe that a political force that can be entrusted with power in the post-war period can emerge from among the military (47% of respondents believe so). 24% of respondents consider that it can emerge from the volunteer environment, 20% – from the humanitarian or technical professionals, 19% – from civil society organizations, 17% – from already existing political parties, and 9% – from the business environment.

52% of residents of the Western and Central regions, 36% of Southern, and 35% of Eastern regions believe that such a political force may emerge from among the military.

 

Trust in politicians, public officials, and society figures

Of the politicians, officials, and public figures whose level of trust was assessed during this study, respondents most often trusted V. Zelenskyy (51%).

Trust prevails over distrust to V. Kim (46% and 34, respectively), V. Maliuk (36% and 27%, respectively), M. Fedorov (31% and 24.5%, respectively). 

Most respondents do not trust Y. Boyko (79%), Y. Tymoshenko (79%), P. Poroshenko (68%), M. Bezugla (64%), A. Yermak (62%), D. Arakhamia (60%), R. Stefanchuk (53%), I. Vereshchuk (52%), D. Shmygal (52%).

Distrust prevailed over trust for V. Klitschko (47% do not trust, 39% trust), S. Prytula (46% and 42%, respectively), R. Umerov (41% and 29%, respectively), M. Podoliak (40% and 35%, respectively), D. Hetmantsev (39% and 16%, respectively), I. Klymenko (34% and 20.5%, respectively), H. Halushchenko (32% and 11%, respectively), O. Stefanishyna (31% and 16%, respectively), O. Kuleba (30% and 16%, respectively), O. Lisovyi (26% and 14%, respectively), Y. Svyrydenko (23% and 10%, respectively), and A. Sybiha (22% and 9%, respectively).

 

Attitudes on holding national elections in Ukraine before the end of war

Only 28% of respondents positively regard the idea of ​​holding national elections in Ukraine (presidential or parliamentary) before the end of the war, with most respondents (56%) expressing a negative attitude to the issue.

Support for the idea of ​​holding elections before the end of the war depends on the level of trust in the current government, namely in the President of Ukraine. Thus, among those who trust the President of Ukraine, only 17% would support elections (69% – not), while among those who do not trust him – 41% and 42%, respectively.

The idea of ​​holding presidential and parliamentary elections before the end of the war is less dependent on the level of trust in the Verkhovna Rada: among those who trust it, 23% would support elections (63.5% – not), and among those who do not trust – 30% and 54%, respectively. 

 

 

Belief in victory and vision of victory

83% of respondents believe in the victory of Ukraine in the war (72% of residents of the Southern region, 75% of the Eastern , 87% of the Western, and 88% of residents of the Central regions). Those who do not believe – 11% (ranging from 7% in the Central region to 21% in the Southern).

As to the terms of victory, among the respondents who believe in it, 39% claim that it will be in 1-2 years, 19.5% – by the end of this year, 15% – that it will take 3 to 5 years, 5% – more than 5 years, 2% – that they “won't live to see victory.”

The most optimistic expectations of victory were in February-March 2023, when 50% believed that victory would be before the end of the same year.

On the issue of the conditions of victory itself, the relative majority (38%) of those who believe in victory answer that driving Russian troops from all of Ukraine and re-establishing borders as of January 2014 can be deemed a victory. Another 17.5% deem the elimination of the Russian army and the promotion of revolutions/separatist movements within Russia a victory. 17% see the restoration of the status quo as of February 23, 2022, as a victory, 7.5% – driving Russian troops from all of Ukraine except for Crimea, and 8% – the war's termination, even if the Russian army remains on the territories it has captured since the full-scale invasion (after February 24, 2022).

A relative majority (47%) of Ukrainians believe that permission from the Western countries to use their weapons without restrictions to destroy targets within Russia is more likely to result in peace in Ukraine than negotiations between Ukraine and Russia (only 29% of respondents believe that such negotiations are a more effective way to establish peace).

Respondents who believe in Ukraine's victory usually claim that permission from Western countries to use their weapons without restrictions to destroy targets within Russia is more likely to result in peace in Ukraine (52%, while 25% of them prefer negotiations). Those who do not believe in victory see negotiations as a more effective way to establish peace (18% and 56%, respectively). The same opinion is common among those who consider the victory as the war's termination even if the Russian army remains on territories occupied in 2022 or later (15% and 67%, respectively).

In August 2024, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched an offensive into Kursk Oblast in Russia. Respondents were asked about their attitude to the fact that Ukrainian troops are conducting combat operations not only in Ukraine but also within the internationally recognized borders of the Russian Federation. 58% were positive about it, only 20% were negative, and 7% were neutral (16% – undecided).

Most (65%) respondents who believe in the victory of Ukraine expressed a positive attitude (negative – only 15%), while those who do not believe in victory had a more negative attitude (22% and 50%, respectively). Those who consider victory as the war's termination even if the Russian army remains on the territories occupied in 2022 or later are more likely to express a negative attitude (29% and 47%, respectively).

 

 

SURVEY RESULTS IN TABLES

The data in the tables are given in percentages, unless otherwise specified

 

Generally speaking, in your opinion, are events in Ukraine developing in the right or wrong direction?

In the right direction

33.4

In the wrong direction

48.0

Not sure

18.6

  

In your opinion, is Ukraine capable of overcoming the current problems and difficulties?

Capable of overcoming within the next few years

30.3

Capable of overcoming in the more distant future

46.3

Not capable 

10.9

Not sure

12.5

 

In your opinion, how well has the government coped with solving problematic issues in the listed sectors since February 24, 2022?

 

Very well

Rather well

Rather poorly

Very poorly

Not sure

Economy

2.4

21.3

44.9

24.3

7.1

Country's defense

8.1

39.2

31.9

15.1

5.8

Anti-corruption strategies

1.6

10.5

34.9

47.2

5.8

Crime prevention

2.2

20.5

38.0

27.9

11.4

Social protection and pension benefits

5.5

32.8

32.9

21.0

7.8

Healthcare

3.7

43.5

30.9

16.6

5.2

Education

5.3

45.1

24.9

13.4

11.3

Energy supply

9.4

45.8

25.1

14.4

5.2

Foreign policy

11.2

39.0

23.6

14.8

11.4

Justice

2.9

13.3

37.4

31.5

14.9

Country's recovery

2.8

23.8

32.1

23.6

17.6

 

What is the level of your trust in these social institutions?

 

Do not trust at all

Somewhat distrust

Somewhat trust

Fully trust

Not sure

Trust-distrust balance*

President of Ukraine

17.4

27.1

35.4

13.1

7.1

4.0

Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine

41.3

37.2

13.7

2.3

5.6

-62.5

Government of Ukraine

36.0

36.5

18.3

2.2

7.1

-52.0

State apparatus (public officials)

39.0

38.4

12.5

1.7

8.3

-63.2

Head of your city / town / village

18.5

26.2

40.3

7.1

7.9

2.7

Local council of your city / town / village

18.5

27.4

37.1

7.5

9.4

-1.3

Armed Forces of Ukraine

2.2

3.7

24.9

66.6

2.6

85.6

Ministry of Defense of Ukraine

9.5

19.6

39.8

23.0

8.1

33.7

State Border Guard Service

7.9

15.5

42.0

27.8

6.9

46.4

National Guard of Ukraine

7.4

11.1

40.6

33.8

7.1

55.9

National Police

13.7

27.7

35.4

14.4

8.8

8.4

Security Service of Ukraine (SBU)

9.0

17.1

40.1

23.5

10.3

37.5

State Emergency Service

4.9

7.5

33.5

49.6

4.4

70.7

Prosecutor's Office

28.1

34.5

18.4

4.8

14.1

-39.4

Courts (judicial system in general)

32.3

37.9

12.2

4.2

13.5

-53.8

National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU)

22.5

35.5

18.3

3.8

19.9

-35.9

Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAPO)

24.4

33.6

15.6

3.8

22.7

-38.6

National Agency on Corruption Prevention (NACP)

23.7

33.7

15.8

3.4

23.4

-38.2

State Bureau of Investigation (SBI)

20.3

32.8

18.8

4.8

23.4

-29.5

Economic Security Bureau of Ukraine (ESB)

20.6

30.4

17.8

4.1

27.1

-29.1

Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights (Ombudsman)

14.1

20.3

34.7

7.7

23.2

8.0

Ukrainian social media

16.0

32.1

37.0

7.6

7.3

-3.5

National Bank of Ukraine

13.3

26.1

42.1

8.1

10.4

10.8

Commercial banks

21.2

33.7

24.5

4.8

15.8

-25.6

Trade unions

20.0

26.1

21.9

4.0

28.0

-20.2

Political parties

34.2

39.3

11.8

2.9

11.9

-58.8

Civil society organizations

8.9

20.4

48.8

10.0

11.8

29.5

Clergy

13.5

13.3

39.4

23.1

10.6

35.7

Volunteer units

5.0

7.3

41.7

37.8

8.2

67.2

Volunteer organizations

4.4

9.3

47.7

32.6

5.9

66.6

* The difference between the share of those who trust, and those who do not trust

 

Do you believe that any of the current political forces can be entrusted with power in the post-war period?

Yes

26.9

No

53.7

Not sure

19.4

 

In your opinion, which population group should the political force represent for you to entrust it with power in the post-war period? Please, choose all the options that apply  

from the already existing political parties

17.0

from business environment

8.9

from civil society organizations

19.0

from humanitarian or technical professionals (academics, teachers, etc.)

21.4

from military personnel

46.6

from volunteer environment

23.6

other

4.5

not sure

22.5

  

To what extent do you trust the following politicians, public officials, and society figures? 

 

Do not trust at all

Somewhat distrust

Somewhat trust

Fully trust

I've never heard of this person

Not sure

Trust-distrust balance*

Davyd Arakhamia

35.2

25.1

12.6

1.1

14.9

11.1

-46.6

Maryana Bezugla

45.8

18.6

9.2

0.7

17.6

8.2

-54.5

Yuriy Boiko

65.0

14.3

3.9

0.6

9.8

6.3

-74.8

Iryna Vereshchuk

28

24.3

22.4

4.3

10.5

10.5

-25.6

Herman Halushchenko

16.5

15.3

8.9

2

48

9.2

-20.9

Danylo Hetmantsev

20.4

18.4

14.1

2.0

34.1

11.0

-22.7

Andriy Yermak

38.2

23.7

17.9

3.4

5.2

11.6

-40.6

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

18.6

22.9

30.7

20.5

0.0

7.3

9.7

Vitalii Kim

16.6

17.8

33.2

12.6

7.0

12.8

11.4

Ihor Klymenko

15.5

18.2

17

3.5

33.1

12.7

-13.2

Vitaliy Klytschko

20.9

25.9

33.8

5.3

1.8

12.2

-7.7

Oleksiy Kuleba

14.7

14.9

12.8

2.9

37.5

17.2

-13.9

Oksen Lisovyi

13.0

12.9

12.0

1.9

49.9

10.2

-12.0

Vasyl Maliuk

12.4

14.6

26.9

9.3

26.5

10.2

9.2

Mykhailo Podoliak

20.7

19.2

28.2

6.9

11.7

13.2

-4.8

Petro Poroshenko

39.9

28.4

18.2

4.6

0.6

8.3

-45.5

Serhiy Prytula

23.1

23

32.9

9.3

1.9

9.7

-3.9

Yulia Svyrydenko

12.7

9.9

8.8

1.4

58.4

8.7

-12.4

Andriy Sybiha

12.2

10.0

7.5

1.7

56.9

11.6

-13.0

Olha Stefanishyna

15.5

15.5

14.0

1.9

41.1

12.0

-15.1

Ruslan Stefanchuk

27.5

25.6

16.3

1.7

17.3

11.5

-35.1

Yulia Tymoshenko

51.0

27.6

11.8

1.7

0.6

7.3

-65.1

Rustem Umerov

19.1

21.5

25.6

3.7

14.7

15.4

-11.3

Mykhailo Fedorov

13.3

11.2

23.6

7.6

32.5

11.8

6.7

Denys Shmyhal

24.4

27.2

25.0

3.9

4.9

14.6

-22.7 

* The difference between the share of those who trust, and those who do not trust

 

What is your opinion on holding national (presidential or parliamentary) elections before the end of the war?

Positive

28.2

Negative

55.6

Not sure

16.3

  

Do you believe in the victory of Ukraine against Russia?

Yes

60.0

Mostly yes

23.0

Mostly no

6.2

No

5.2

Not sure

5.6

  

In your opinion, when will victory be? % of respondents who believe in the victory of Ukraine

By the end of this year

19.5

In 1-2 years

39.2

In 3-5 years

14.8

No sooner than 5 years

5.4

I won't live to see it

2.0

Other

0.5

Not sure

18.6

 

What would you personally accept as a victory in this war? % of respondents who believe in the victory of Ukraine 

The war's termination, even if the Russian army remains on the territories it has captured and held since February 24, 2022 (parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, Donbas)

8.1

Driving Russian troops back beyond the borders as of February 23, 2022 (certain districts of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts remain occupied, along with Crimea)

16.6

Driving Russian troops from the entirety of mainland Ukraine, excluding Crimea

7.5

Driving Russian troops from all of Ukraine including Crimea, re-establishing borders as of January 2014

37.8

Annihilating the Russian army and promoting revolutions/separatist movements within Russia itself

17.5

Other

1.5

Not sure

11.1

 

In your opinion, which of the following is more likely to result in peace in Ukraine?

Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia

29.1

Permission from Western countries to use their weapons without restrictions to destroy targets within Russia

46.9

None of the above

14.6

Not sure

9.4

 

In August 2024, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched an offensive into the Kursk Oblast in Russia. What is your opinion of the fact that Ukrainian troops are now conducting combat operations not only in Ukraine but also within the internationally recognized borders of the Russian Federation? 

Positive

57.6

Negative

19.6

Neutral

7.0

Not sure

15.8

  

DYNAMICS AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS SURVEYS

Generally speaking, in your opinion, are events in Ukraine developing in the right or wrong direction?

 

December 2021

September – October 2022

February – March 2023

July 2023

September 2023

December 2023

January 2024

March 2024

June 2024

August 2024

September 2024

In the right direction

20.3

51.0

60.6

52.1

48.7

45.3

40.6

37.7

32.9

39.8

33.4

In the wrong direction

65.5

27.8

21.0

26.8

30.5

33.2

38.0

38.7

47.4

37.1

48.0

Not sure

14.2

21.3

18.5

21.1

20.8

21.5

21.4

23.5

19.6

23.1

18.6

 

In your opinion, is Ukraine capable of overcoming the current problems and difficulties?  

 

December 2021

September – October 2022

February – March 2023

July 2023

September 2023

December 2023

January 2024

March 2024

June 2024

September 2024

Capable of overcoming within the next few years

17.7

40.6

49.4

42.7

38.0

32.2

32.8

30.5

29.0

30.3

Capable of overcoming in the more distant future

54.4

42.6

35.9

41.7

43.4

45.3

42.2

45.9

45.9

46.3

Not capable 

17.6

5.2

3.4

6.4

8.6

7.2

9.0

10.5

11.3

10.9

Not sure

10.3

11.6

11.3

9.2

10.0

15.3

16.1

13.2

13.8

12.5

  

In your opinion, how well has the government coped with solving problematic issues in the listed sectors since February 24, 2022?

 

 

Very well

Rather well

Rather poorly

Very poorly

Not sure

Economy

 

 

 

 

 

February–March 2023

6.8

37.9

40.0

5.5

9.8

August 2023

4.0

28.4

44.7

14.4

8.5

September 2024

2.4

21.3

44.9

24.3

7.1

Country's defense

 

 

 

 

 

February–March 2023

25.4

56.4

11.0

2.2

4.9

August 2023

18.1

50.5

20.7

5.0

5.7

September 2024

8.1

39.2

31.9

15.1

 

Anti-corruption strategies

 

 

 

 

 

February–March 2023

4.1

19.5

44.5

21.3

10.7

August 2023

2.3

11.5

39.0

40.1

7.0

September 2024

1.6

10.5

34.9

47.2

5.8

Crime prevention

 

 

 

 

 

February–March 2023

4.9

33.3

35.6

11.7

14.5

August 2023

3.7

25.9

38.4

19.5

12.5

September 2024

2.2

20.5

38.0

27.9

11.4

Social protection and pension benefits

 

 

 

 

 

February–March 2023

8.6

44.0

28.8

8.2

10.4

August 2023

8.6

38.9

30.3

12

10.2

September 2024

5.5

32.8

32.9

21.0

7.8

Healthcare

 

 

 

 

 

February–March 2023

6.2

47.6

30.3

5.7

10.3

August 2023

6.0

43.6

34.3

9.7

6.5

September 2024

3.7

43.5

30.9

16.6

5.2

Education

 

 

 

 

 

February–March 2023

6.3

49.5

24.1

5.4

14.7

August 2023

6.8

43.6

26.1

8.1

15.4

September 2024

5.3

45.1

24.9

13.4

11.3

Energy supply

 

 

 

 

 

February–March 2023

18.0

61.6

12.9

3.4

4.0

August 2023

15.6

60.5

15.7

4.1

4

September 2024

9.4

45.8

25.1

14.4

5.2

Foreign policy

 

 

 

 

 

February–March 2023

26.0

48.7

12.5

3.0

9.8

August 2023

14.3

50.7

18.3

5.7

11

September 2024

11.2

39.0

23.6

14.8

11.4

Justice

 

 

 

 

 

February–March 2023

3.7

25.0

37.3

10.8

23.2

August 2023

2.6

15.7

39.4

25.1

17.2

September 2024

2.9

13.3

37.4

31.5

14.9

Country's recovery

 

 

 

 

 

February–March 2023

5.6

32.3

26.7

9.1

26.2

August 2023

3.5

23.0

37.0

14.8

21.6

September 2024

2.8

23.8

32.1

23.6

17.6

 

  

What is your level of trust in the following social institutions? 

 

July – August 2021

June 2024

September 2024

 

do not trust*

trust**

not sure

trust-distrust balance***

do not trust*

trust**

not sure

trust-distrust balance***

do not trust*

trust**

not sure

trust-distrust balance***

 

Armed Forces of Ukraine

24.8

68.3

6.7

43.5

7.7

90.0

2.1

82.3

5.9

91.5

2.6

85.6

 

State Emergency Service

28.7

61.4

9.9

32.7

15.8

78.9

5.3

63.1

12.4

83.1

4.4

70.7

 

Volunteer organizations

25.1

63.6

11.3

38.5

13.8

81.1

5.1

67.3

13.7

80.3

5.9

66.6

 

Volunteer units

33.4

53.5

13.1

20.1

13.2

79.6

7.2

66.4

12.3

79.5

8.2

67.2

 

National Guard of Ukraine

36.0

53.6

10.4

17.6

18.9

75.4

5.8

56.5

18.5

74.4

7.1

55.9

 

State Border Guard Service

34.3

55

10.7

20.7

22.9

70.6

6.5

47.7

23.4

69.8

6.9

46.4

 

Security Service of Ukraine (SBU)

49.7

37.5

12.7

-12.2

29.4

60.7

9.9

31.3

26.1

63.6

10.3

37.5

 

Ministry of Defense of Ukraine

˗

˗

˗

˗

31.5

60.8

7.6

29.3

29.1

62.8

8.1

33.7

 

Clergy

26.3

63.5

10.3

37.2

25.5

63.3

11.3

37.8

26.8

62.5

10.6

35.7

 

Civil society organizations

37.4

47

15.5

9.6

31.3

56.5

12.2

25.2

29.3

58.8

11.8

29.5

 

National Bank of Ukraine

60.1

29.1

10.9

-31.0

42.4

48.1

9.4

5.7

39.4

50.2

10.4

10.8

 

National Police of Ukraine

52.9

38.5

8.5

-14.4

43.2

49.1

7.8

5.9

41.4

49.8

8.8

8.4

 

President of Ukraine

57.6

36.2

6.2

-21.4

42.7

49.6

7.7

6.9

44.5

48.5

7.1

4.0

 

Head of your city / town / village

33.6

57.1

9.3

23.5

43

50.6

6.4

7.6

44.7

47.4

7.9

2.7

 

Local council of your city / town / village

37.8

51.4

10.7

13.6

45.6

44.8

9.6

-0.8

45.9

44.6

9.4

-1.3

 

Ukrainian social media

45.8

45.4

8.9

-0.4

50.2

41.2

8.6

-9

48.1

44.6

7.3

-3.5

 

Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights (Ombudsman)

40.1

31.7

28.1

-8.4

38.7

39.2

22.2

0.5

34.4

42.4

23.2

8.0

 

Commercial banks

70.7

18.2

11.1

-52.5

57.8

29.0

13.2

-28.8

54.9

29.3

15.8

-25.6

 

Trade unions

54.8

21.2

24.0

-33.6

49.2

24.7

26.1

-24.5

46.1

25.9

28.0

-20.2

 

Prosecutor's Office

71.1

17.8

11.1

-53.3

63.7

25.6

10.6

-38.1

62.6

23.2

14.1

-39.4

 

National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU)

69.6

15.2

15.3

-54.4

62.0

23.9

14.2

-38.1

58.0

22.1

19.9

-35.9

 

Government of Ukraine

72

21.5

6.6

-50.5

72.8

21.6

5.6

-51.2

72.5

20.5

7.1

-52.0

 

Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office

69.3

13.6

17.2

-55.7

63.0

21.6

15.3

-41.4

58.0

19.4

22.7

-38.6

 

National Agency on Corruption Prevention

69.6

13.2

17.2

-56.4

62.0

20.7

17.3

-41.3

57.4

19.2

23.4

-38.2

 

Courts (judicial system in general)

74.2

15.5

10.4

-58.7

73.4

17.1

9.5

-56.3

70.2

16.4

13.5

-53.8

 

Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine

75.1

18.7

6.1

-56.4

76.2

19.3

4.5

-56.9

78.5

16.0

5.6

-62.5

 

Political parties

71.7

16.1

12.2

-55.6

77.5

14.2

8.3

-63.3

73.5

14.7

11.9

-58.8

 

State apparatus (public officials)

75.7

14.9

9.4

-60.8

78.5

15.7

5.8

-62.8

77.4

14.2

8.3

-63.2

 

* total answers “do not trust at all” and “rather do not trust” 

** total answers “fully trust” and “rather trust”

*** the difference between the share of those who trust, and those who do not trust 

Do you believe that any of the current political forces can be entrusted with power in the post-war period?

 

July 2023

September 2023

March 2024

September 2024

Yes

38.5

27.2

24.6

26.9

No

41.3

48.6

51.8

53.7

Not sure

20.2

24.2

23.7

19.4

 

In your opinion, which population group should the political force represent for you to entrust it with power in the post-war period? The respondent could choose multiple options

 

July 2023

September 2023

March 2024

September 2024

From the already existing political parties

25.9

23.2

18.1

17.0

From business environment

7.8

7.7

6.2

8.9

From civil society organizations

18.5

19.1

18.6

19.0

From humanitarian or technical professionals (academics, teachers, etc.)

17.2

24.6

20.0

21.4

From military personnel

51.0

51.6

45.1

46.6

From volunteer environment

24.4

29.6

21.5

23.6

Other

3.2

3.5

3.3

4.5

Not sure

17.6

17.1

22.9

22.5

 

To what extent do you trust the following politicians, public officials, and society figures?

 

Do not trust*

Trust**

Have never heard of them

Not sure

Trust-distrust balance*

Davyd Arakhamia

 

February – March 2023

38.8

26.7

18.6

15.9

-12.1

May 2023

45.7

18.1

19.3

16.8

-27.6

July 2023

49.0

21.5

15.9

13.6

-27.5

September 2023

54.2

19.2

15.5

11.2

-35.0

December 2023

57.3

18.4

12.0

12.2

-38.9

January 2024

58.1

14.0

14.6

13.2

-44.1

June 2024

61.9

14.6

14.0

9.6

-47.3

September 2024

60.3

13.7

14.9

11.1

-46.6

Maryana Bezugla

 

 

 

 

 

December 2023

58.5

7.7

27.2

6.6

-50.8

January 2024

65.8

6.9

18.6

8.7

-58.9

June 2024

68.1

9.0

16.8

6.2

-59.1

September 2024

64.4

9.9

17.6

8.2

-54.5

Yuriy Boiko

 

 

 

 

 

July – August 2021

73.0

17.8

3.0

6.3

-55.2

February – March 2023

81.6

6.0

6.5

5.9

-75.6

May 2023

77.0

6.1

8.6

8.4

-70.9

July 2023

76.0

9.8

6.6

7.6

-66.2

September 2023

82.2

6.8

6.5

4.6

-75.4

December 2023

81.3

6.1

6.8

5.9

-75.2

January 2024

78.2

5.5

8.6

7.6

-72.7

June 2024

76.9

9.1

8.1

5.9

-67.8

September 2024

79.3

4.5

9.8

6.3

-74.8

Iryna Vereshchuk

 

 

 

 

 

December 2023

38.8

40.1

11.2

10.0

1.3

January 2024

42.0

33.6

12.6

11.8

-8.4

June 2024

49.3

27.8

12.9

10.1

-21.5

September 2024

52.3

26.7

10.5

10.5

-25.6

Danylo Hetmantsev

 

 

 

 

 

December 2023

33.4

20.4

35.6

10.6

-13.0

January 2024

32.6

20.2

34.3

12.9

-12.4

June 2024

40.0

19.8

30.1

10.1

-20.2

September 2024

38.8

16.1

34.1

11.0

-22.7

Andriy Yermak

 

 

 

 

 

July – August 2021

58.5

10.3

22.6

8.6

-48.2

February – March 2023

36.0

40.6

8.1

15.3

4.6

May 2023

40.0

37.5

7.6

15

-2.5

July 2023

41.8

37.8

7.8

12.6

-4.0

September 2023

52.8

29.1

7.4

10.8

-23.7

December 2023

54.3

29.7

5.9

10.1

-24.6

January 2024

55.5

25.2

5.7

13.6

-30.3

June 2024

63.9

19.5

5.7

11.0

-44.4

September 2024

61.9

21.3

5.2

11.6

-40.6

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

 

 

 

 

 

July – August 2021

61.0

32.6

0.4

6.1

-28.4

February – March 2023

9.9

84.9

0.5

4.7

75.0

May 2023

11.0

83.5

0.3

5.1

72.5

July 2023

13.6

80.8

0.6

4.9

67.2

September 2023

18.6

74.8

0.1

6.5

56.2

December 2023

23.4

70.7

0.3

5.6

47.3

January 2024

24.5

69.0

0.1

6.5

44.5

June 2024

37.8

53.8

0.2

8.2

16.0

September 2024

41.5

51.2

0.0

7.3

9.7

Vitalii Kim

 

 

 

 

 

May 2023

14.7

62.7

10.6

12.1

48.0

July 2023

12.9

71.1

7.8

8.3

58.2

September 2023

18.0

64.1

9.1

8.8

46.1

December 2023

17.0

64.7

8.9

9.4

47.7

January 2024

21.3

58.0

9.7

10.9

36.7

June 2024

32.5

45.8

10.2

11.4

13.3

September 2024

34.4

45.8

7.0

12.8

11.4

Ihor Klymenko

 

 

 

 

 

February – March 2023

16.9

27.2

42.5

13.3

10.3

May 2023

16.2

21.6

48.1

14.1

5.4

July 2023

17.2

32.0

38.2

12.6

14.8

September 2023

22.1

25.7

40.9

11.4

3.6

December 2023

21.0

30.8

35.8

12.3

9.8

January 2024

22.8

27.9

35.8

13.5

5.1

June 2024

31.5

23.6

33.3

11.6

-7.9

September 2024

33.7

20.5

33.1

12.7

-13.2

Vitaliy Klytschko

 

 

 

 

 

July – August 2021

64.2

25.6

0.6

9.6

-38.6

February – March 2023

27.5

57.9

1.6

13.0

30.4

May 2023

34.8

48.4

1.3

15.5

13.6

July 2023

35.5

47.7

2.4

14.4

12.2

September 2023

39.5

43.7

2.5

14.2

4.2

December 2023

45.2

40.0

1.2

13.6

-5.2

January 2024

43.6

39.2

1.2

16.0

-4.4

June 2024

45.3

40.9

1.0

12.7

-4.4

September 2024

46.8

39.1

1.8

12.2

-7.7

Vasyl Maliuk

 

 

 

 

 

February – March 2023

14.7

24.7

49.2

11.3

10.0

May 2023

14.9

26.4

46.5

12.3

11.5

July 2023

15.5

33.1

39.9

11.6

17.6

September 2023

20.9

33.8

34.7

10.6

12.9

December 2023

20.8

41.1

27.1

11.1

20.3

January 2024

22.2

40.1

28.7

8.9

17.9

June 2024

24.6

37.9

26.9

10.6

13.3

September 2024

27.0

36.2

26.5

10.2

9.2

Mykhailo Podoliak

 

 

 

 

 

February – March 2023

19.2

59.5

12.1

9.2

40.3

May 2023

24.1

50.7

11.0

14.1

26.6

July 2023

24.5

52.1

13.0

10.3

27.6

September 2023

30.3

44.6

14.0

11.1

14.3

December 2023

29.4

51.6

10.0

9.1

22.2

January 2024

32.2

44.4

12.0

11.5

12.2

June 2024

42.1

35.8

10.4

11.5

-6.3

September 2024

39.9

35.1

11.7

13.2

-4.8

Petro Poroshenko

 

 

 

 

 

July – August 2021

75.5

17.6

0.4

6.3

-57.9

February – March 2023

64.8

24.4

0.1

10.7

-40.4

May 2023

73.1

17.1

0.5

9.4

-56.0

July 2023

70.7

19.7

0.5

9.1

-51.0

September 2023

73.1

16.9

0.7

9.4

-56.2

December 2023

74.2

18.2

0.7

6.9

-56.0

January 2024

69.8

18.7

0.3

11.1

-51.1

June 2024

67.1

24.2

0.3

8.3

-42.9

September 2024

68.3

22.8

0.6

8.3

-45.5

Serhiy Prytula

 

 

July – August 2021

56.5

21.8

8.9

12.9

-34.7

February – March 2023

21.7

65.0

2.5

10.8

43.3

May 2023

29.3

55.8

2.9

12.0

26.5

July 2023

31.3

55.0

4.0

9.6

23.7

September 2023

35.2

51.3

2.8

10.7

16.1

December 2023

33.5

54.8

3.6

8.1

21.3

January 2024

33.2

54.3

2.6

10.0

21.1

June 2024

47.0

40.8

1.8

10.4

-6.2

September 2024

46.1

42.2

1.9

9.7

-3.9

Ruslan Stefanchuk

 

 

February – March 2023

27.4

34.7

22.6

15.3

7.3

May 2023

33.7

26.9

23.1

16.3

-6.8

July 2023

35.6

31.0

20.1

13.3

-4.6

September 2023

46.0

24.6

17.8

11.5

-21.4

December 2023

41.4

27.8

18.1

12.7

-13.6

January 2024

50.5

23.1

14.8

11.6

-27.4

June 2024

63.8

17.5

9.4

9.4

-46.3

September 2024

53.1

18.0

17.3

11.5

-35.1

Yulia Tymoshenko

 

 

July – August 2021

72.2

19.9

0.8

7.2

-52.3

February – March 2023

75.7

13.2

0.7

10.4

-62.5

May 2023

80.4

8.7

0.6

10.3

-71.7

July 2023

78.0

10.4

1.2

10.3

-67.6

September 2023

82.1

10.8

1.0

6.1

-71.3

December 2023

84.6

8.1

1.0

6.3

-76.5

January 2024

80.5

11.0

0.5

8.0

-69.5

June 2024

80.0

12.9

0.7

6.3

-67.1

September 2024

78.6

13.5

0.6

7.3

-65.1

Rustem Umerov

 

 

 

 

 

September 2023

20.9

25.1

31.7

22.4

4.2

December 2023

21.8

35.2

23.1

19.9

13.4

January 2024

27.2

33.2

19.4

20.2

6.0

June 2024

41.2

28.0

14.6

16.2

-13.2

September 2024

40.6

29.3

14.7

15.4

-11.3

Denys Shmyhal

 

 

July – August 2021

69.1

10.6

7.7

12.5

-58.5

February – March 2023

30.2

51.6

3.7

14.5

21.4

May 2023

39.3

36.1

5.9

18.8

-3.2

July 2023

37.9

41.4

6.9

13.8

3.5

September 2023

44.3

36.4

5.7

13.6

-7.9

December 2023

42.4

38.4

7.0

12.2

-4.0

January 2024

44.7

34.0

6.6

14.6

-10.7

June 2024

57.3

27.1

3.5

12.1

-30.2

September 2024

51.6

28.9

4.9

14.6

-22.7

* total answers “do not trust at all” and “rather do not trust” 

** total answers “fully trust” and “rather trust”

*** the difference between the share of those who trust, and those who do not trust 

 

Do you believe in the victory of Ukraine against Russia?

 

August 2022

December 2022

February – March 2023

July 2023

December 2023

January 2024

March 2024

June 2024

September 2024

Yes

76.9

78.5

79.6

79.4

63.3

62.3

59.5

53.0

60.0

Mostly yes

14.6

14.7

13.6

13.8

24.8

22.5

23.4

26.9

23.0

Mostly no

2.9

1.9

2.1

1.6

3.8

5.0

6.4

7.2

6.2

No

1.2

1.2

1.4

1.7

1.6

3.5

4.4

5.0

5.2

Not sure

4.4

3.7

3.3

3.5

6.5

6.7

6.4

7.8

5.6

 

 

In your opinion, when will victory be? % of respondents who believe in victory of Ukraine

 

August 2022

February – March 2023

July 2023

January 2024

March 2024

June 2024

September 2024

By the end of this year

31.2

49.9

35.4

19.7

21.9

23.8

19.5

In 1-2 years

34.3

25.9

37.8

39.8

34.5

37.7

39.2

In 3-5 years

7.1

7.4

8.9

14.0

16.7

14.6

14.8

No sooner than 5 years

2.1

1.1

1.2

3.2

4.2

4.6

5.4

I won't live to see it

1.7

0.4

0.3

1.1

0.8

1.3

2.0

Other

0.5

0.2

0.5

0.3

0.6

0.6

0.5

Not sure

23.1

15.0

15.9

21.8

21.3

17.5

18.6

  

What would you personally accept as a victory in this war? % of respondents who believe in victory of Ukraine

 

August 2022

September – October 2022

December 2022

February – March 2023

July 2023

January 2024

March 2024

June 2024

September 2024

The war's termination, even if the Russian army remains on the territories it has captured and occupied since February 24, 2022 (Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, Donbas)

3.1

6.0

3.3

4.6

5.2

3.6

6.2

7.7

8.1

Driving Russian troops back beyond the borders as of February 23, 2022 (certain districts of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts remain occupied, along with Crimea)

7.4

8.1

6.2

4.6

9.0

13.0

10.7

13.8

16.6

Driving Russian troops from the entirety of mainland Ukraine, excluding Crimea

8.7

4.2

8.0

4.4

5.7

7.4

8.6

7.7

7.5

Driving Russian troops from all of Ukraine including Crimea, re-establishing borders as of January 2014

54.7

43.9

54.1

46.9

52.6

38.1

45.5

41.8

37.8

Annihilating the Russian army and promoting revolutions/separatist movements within Russia itself

20.4

26.6

22.4

30.8

20.8

27.3

23.1

17.5

17.5

Other

0.4

0.9

0.3

1.0

1.3

1.5

1.6

2.0

1.5

Not sure

5.3

10.4

5.6

7.6

5.5

9.1

4.3

9.5

11.1