Wartime crisis. Will there be another recession, and may it weaken Russia?

July 20, 2022

After a sharp rise in commodity prices and galloping inflation, business circles around the world are increasingly talking about a possible recession. A new global economic downturn will make it possible to cool down the clearly overheated oil and gas prices, in this way depriving Russia of excess profits from energy trade. However, the economic downturn in the EU may also affect the amount of aid that Ukraine will receive.

Maksym Bielawski, an expert at the Razumkov Center and former PR director of Naftogaz, notes that the recession will affect energy consumption.

"In the 4th quarter of 2022, we will most likely see a drop in demand. Such a drop in demand may either offset the deficit, or exceed it. Thus, there will be a surplus in the market. A surplus on the market may lead to a decrease in quotations," says Bielawski.

According to the expert, such a scenario will affect the incomes of the aggressor country. Currently, the Russian budget revenues from energy exports are already decreasing due to the slowdown of the economies of the countries of Asia and Pacific, in particular due to quarantine restrictions.

"I think that the first or second quarter of 2023 will see an economic collapse for Russia. Literally. If the first half of this year was characterised by high profits from Russian hydrocarbon exports, by the end of 2022 and in the beginning of 2023 there will definitely be no such profit. Revenues will decrease several times," says Mr. Bielawski.

Maksym Bielawski

Leading Expert, Energy Programmes

Born in 1986 in Zhytomyr oblast


Zhytomyr State Technological University (2008)

Ph.D in Technical Science (2010)

Ivano-Frankivsk National Technical University of Oil and Gas (2012)

Author of 17 patents and 100 scientific works

Work Experience:

2008 – 2011 — Operator of Gas Infrastructure Units, Controller of Gas Transmission System in Rivne Division of PJSC "Ukrtransgas"

2011 – 2017 — Leading Engineer, Deputy Head of Press-Service, Head of Public Relation Department of PJSC "Ukrtransgas"

2017 – 2018 — HR Director of PJSC "Maine Gas Pipelines of Ukraine", Advisor to the Minister of Energy and Coal Industry of Ukraine

2021 — Director of Integrated Communications of NJSC "Naftogaz of Ukraine"