After a sharp rise in commodity prices and galloping inflation, business circles around the world are increasingly talking about a possible recession. A new global economic downturn will make it possible to cool down the clearly overheated oil and gas prices, in this way depriving Russia of excess profits from energy trade. However, the economic downturn in the EU may also affect the amount of aid that Ukraine will receive.

Maksym Bielawski, an expert at the Razumkov Center and former PR director of Naftogaz, notes that the recession will affect energy consumption.

"In the 4th quarter of 2022, we will most likely see a drop in demand. Such a drop in demand may either offset the deficit, or exceed it. Thus, there will be a surplus in the market. A surplus on the market may lead to a decrease in quotations," says Bielawski.

According to the expert, such a scenario will affect the incomes of the aggressor country. Currently, the Russian budget revenues from energy exports are already decreasing due to the slowdown of the economies of the countries of Asia and Pacific, in particular due to quarantine restrictions.

"I think that the first or second quarter of 2023 will see an economic collapse for Russia. Literally. If the first half of this year was characterised by high profits from Russian hydrocarbon exports, by the end of 2022 and in the beginning of 2023 there will definitely be no such profit. Revenues will decrease several times," says Mr. Bielawski.