The results of a sociological survey conducted from September 20th to 26th, 2024 by Razumkov Centre's Sociological Service as part of its project implemented under the USAID/ENGAGE activity, which is funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and implemented by Pact. The contents of this survey are the sole responsibility of Pact and its implementing partners and do not necessary reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.

The face-to-face survey was conducted in Vinnytsia, Volyn, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zhytomyr, Zakarpattia, Zaporizhzhia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Kharkiv, Kherson, Khmelnytsky, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, and Chernivtsi oblasts, and in the city of Kyiv. In Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson oblasts, it was conducted only in areas under the control of Ukrainian military forces where no active armed conflict is taking place.

The survey was conducted under stratified multistage sampling with random selection at the first sampling stages and using the quota method of respondent selection at the final stage (with respondents being selected under gender and age quotas). The sample structure represents the demographic pattern of the adult population in the areas where the survey was conducted as of the beginning of 2022 (by age, gender, and urban/rural classification).

2,016 respondents over the age of 18 were surveyed. The theoretical sampling error does not exceed 2.3%. Given this, additional systematic abnormality within the sample may be due to Russian military aggression, namely the displacement of millions of citizens.

The attitude of Ukrainian citizens toward accession to the EU and NATO

If a referendum on Ukraine's accession to the European Union were held in the near future, 81% of the people surveyed stated they would participate (ranging from 63% of the population in the country's south to 90% in the west). Before the start of the full-scale war — in November–December 2021 — some 69% of the people surveyed stated their intentions to participate in such a referendum.

Currently, about 88% of those who would participate in the referendum are in favor of accession, and 8% against it. In contrast, during November–December 2021, support was at 78% and opposition at 18%.

Regarding EU accession, 96% of residents in western Ukraine intending to participate in the referendum said they would vote in favor (against — 3%). The numbers were 90% for and 5.5% against in Ukraine's central region, 81% for and 13% against in the eastern region, and 69% for and 20% against in the southern region.

If a referendum on Ukraine's accession to NATO were held in the near future, 82% of people surveyed stated they would participate (ranging from 68% of the population in the country's south to 91% in the west). In November–December 2021, 67% of people surveyed stated their intentions to participate in such a referendum.

Currently, about 86% of those who would participate in the referendum are in favor of accession, and 10% against it. In contrast, during November–December 2021, support was at 70% and opposition at 24.5%.

For NATO accession, 95% of residents in western Ukraine intending to participate in the referendum said they would vote in favor (against — 2%). In the central region, the numbers are 88.5% for and 8.5% against, 78% and 16% in the eastern region, and 64% and 26% in the southern region.

Attitude to foreign countries

In response to questions about their views on foreign countries, the majority of respondents express a positive attitude toward Latvia (87%), Lithuania (87%), Germany (87%), the UK (86.5%), France (86%), the USA (84%), Canada (84%), the Netherlands (84%), Czechia (83%), Estonia (82%), Poland (78%), Moldova (74%), Japan (72%), the Slovak Republic (68%), Romania (65%), Georgia (65%), Israel (58%), Turkey (55%), Armenia (52%).

The percentage of those with a positive view is higher than those with a negative view for the following countries: Azerbaijan (46% vs. 26%), South Korea (44% vs. 30%), and Brazil (41% vs. 28%).

In relation to Kazakhstan, the proportions of those with a positive view and those with a negative view are not significantly different in terms of statistics (40% vs. 39.5%).

Most of the respondents hold a negative view toward Russia (94%), Iran (85%), Belarus (84%), North Korea (76%), China (73%), Hungary (59.5%).

The percentage of those with a negative view is higher than those with a positive view for the following countries: India (45.5% vs. 32%) and South Africa (36% vs. 28%).

The Ukrainian people not only have a negative view of the Russian authorities (with 96% of respondents expressing a negative opinion of the president, government, and parliament), but also the citizens of the Russian Federation themselves (77% of respondents expressed a negative view of them, while only 3% held a positive opinion).

78.5% of respondents stated that they support a complete severance of all ties with the Russian Federation, including a total ban on the entry of Russian citizens into Ukraine after Ukraine's victory and the total liberation of its territory (only 13% do not support this).

78% respondents consider Belarus to be a party in the war fighting against Ukraine (only 11% disagreed). Also 68% of respondents stated that they supported a complete severance of all ties between Ukraine and the Republic of Belarus, including a total ban on the entry of Belarusian citizens into Ukraine except for those seeking political asylum(with 19% disagreeing).

Attitude to negotiations with Russia

In September–October 2023, 21% of respondents believed that negotiations with Russia were “an effective way to achieve peace that should be pursued right now,” while 63% disagreed with the view. In September 2024, the percentage of those who held that view rose to 35%, although a relative majority (48%) disagreed.

Also more people now agree with the statement that “talks with Russia should only take place after its troops are pushed back to the front line as of 23 February 2022” (the percentage of those in favor of this view increased from 25% to 37%), while the percentage of those who disagreed dropped from 61% to 41%.

There are also fewer people who believe that “negotiations with Russia should be held only after its troops withdraw to the 1991 borders” (the percentage dropped from 61% to 49%, while the percentage of those who disagreed were 24% and 29%).

A relative majority (48%) of the population in the southern regions supports the idea that the talks with Russia can begin now (while 37% disagree). The majority of people in the western region disagree with this (23% in favor and 57% against) with a relative majority in the central region (37% in favor and 47.5% against). In the eastern region, the proportions of those who agree and those who disagree are not statistically different (39% and 43%).

A majority of people in the western region (61%) believe that negotiations with Russia should be held only after its troops withdraw to the 1991 borders (vs. 23% who hold the opposite view), with the relative majority in the central region (47% in favor and 29% against) supporting the view (29% against), along with the eastern region (49% in favor and 27% against). A relative majority (47%) of people in the south disagree with the above statement (with only 33% in favor).

SURVEY RESULTS IN TABLES

(The data in the tables are shown as percentages)

If a referendum on Ukraine's accession to the EU were to take place in the near future, would you participate in the voting?

If you were to participate in a referendum on joining the EU, how would you vote?

If a referendum on Ukraine's accession to NATO were to take place in the near future, would you participate in the voting?

If you were to participate in a referendum on Ukraine's accession to NATO, how would you cast your vote?

To what extent is your attitude toward these countries positive or negative?

What is your attitude toward

After Ukraine's victory and the total liberation of its territory, would you support a complete break in all relations with the Russian Federation, including a total ban on Russian citizens entering Ukraine?

Do you view Belarus as a party in the war against Ukraine?

After Ukraine's victory and the return of its territory, would you support a complete severance of all ties between Ukraine and Belarus, including a total ban on the entry of Belarusian citizens into Ukraine except for those seeking political asylum?

There are various opinions regarding negotiations with Russia. Do you agree with each of the following statements?

DYNAMICS AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS SURVEYS

If a referendum on Ukraine's accession to the EU were to take place in the near future, would you participate in the voting?

If you were to participate in a referendum on Ukraine's accession to the EU, how would you cast your vote?

If a referendum on Ukraine's accession to NATO were to take place in the near future, would you participate in the voting?

If you were to participate in a referendum on Ukraine's accession to NATO, how would you cast your vote?

To what extent is your attitude toward these countries positive or negative?

What is your attitude toward

After Ukraine's victory and the total liberation of its territory, would you support a complete break in all relations with the Russian Federation, including a total ban on Russian citizens entering Ukraine?

Do you view Belarus as a party in the war against Ukraine?

After Ukraine's victory and the return of its territory, would you support a complete severance of all ties between Ukraine and Belarus, including a total ban on the entry of Belarusian citizens into Ukraine except for those seeking political asylum?

There are various opinions regarding negotiations with Russia. Which of these statements do you most agree with?