Results of a public opinion poll conducted by the Razumkov Centre Sociological Service on May 23–31, 2023 within the frameworks of the MATRA Programme supported by the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in Ukraine. 

The opinions expressed are those of the authors only and should not be considered as representative of the Embassy’s official position.

Face-to-face interviews were taken in Vinnytsia, Volyn, Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Transcarpathian, Zaporizhia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Mykolayiv, Odesa, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Kharkiv, Kherson, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Chernivtsi regions and the city of Kyiv (in Zaporizhia, Mykolayiv, Kharkiv, Kherson regions — only in the territories controlled by the Ukrainian government and free of hostilities).

The poll was conducted using a stratified multistage sample with random selection at the first stages of sampling and quota selection of respondents at the final stage (when respondents were selected on the basis of sex and age quotas). The sample structure reproduces the demographic structure of the adult population of the territories where the poll was held as of the beginning of 2022 (by age, sex, settlement type).

2020 respondents over the age of 18 were polled. The sample theoretical error does not exceed 2.3%. At the same time, additional systematic deviations of the sample may be caused by the consequences of the Russian aggression, in particular, forced evacuation of millions of citizens.

Perception of democracy

Between 2010 and 2021, the share of respondents who considered democracy the most desirable type of government was in the range of 48–56%, and of those who preferred an authoritarian regime — in the range of 18–24%. According to the poll conducted in September–October 2022, that is, after the beginning of the full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war, the share of the former reached 68%, and of the latter — decreased to 11.5%. In May 2023 the share of supporters of a democratic regime increased even more, to 73%, while the share of supporters of authoritarianism fell to 9.5%.

The assessment of the importance of living in a democratic country on a scale from 1 ("totally unimportant") to 10 ("very important") remained practically unchanged in 2017–2023 (8.1–8.3 points, which is higher than in 2011, when it equalled 7.3 points).

In recent years, the share of Ukrainian citizens who believe that the democratic political system is "rather good" or "very good" for the country has increased from 86.5% in 2017 to 93% in 2023. The share of those who believe the democratic political system to be "very good" rose more noticeably (from 36% to 57%).

Support for the system with "a strong leader independent of parliament and elections" was the highest in recent years in 2017 (80% considered it "rather good" or "very good" for the country). However, according to the latest poll, its support has dropped to 62% and is significantly lower than the support for the democratic system. Still, 58% of respondents consider both of these systems to be good at the same time, apparently seeing no contradiction between them.

Support for a system in which "not the government but experts make decisions they consider the best for the country" was the highest in recent years in 2017 (the share of those who termed it "rather good" or "very good" made 69%); according to the latest poll, it decreased to 61%.

The large-scale war led to an increase in the share of respondents in Ukraine who consider a military rule or a military regime "rather good" or "very good" (to 28%), while in 2017 they made 12%. However, the vast majority (71%) of Ukrainians still consider such a system to be bad.

Meanwhile, 26% of respondents in Ukraine consider both a military rule (military regime) and the democratic system to be good at the same time (91% of those who consider a military rule (military regime) to be good also consider a democratic system to be good). That is, "a military regime" is mainly seen as a means of protecting democracy in the conditions of military confrontation with an aggressor.

Over the past six years, citizens' assessment of the level of democracy in the country has grown. The average score, characterizing how democratically our country is governed (on a 10-point scale, where 1 means "not democratically at all", 10 — "absolutely democratically") rose from 3.8 in 2017 to 5.1 in 2020 and 6.2 in 2023.

Two-thirds of respondents believe that Ukraine is not a fully democratic state yet, but it is moving towards democracy (compared to 2010, the share of such respondents increased from 54% to 67%. The share of those who believe that Ukraine is a fully democratic state rose from 12.5% to 18%,, and of those who hold the opinion that Ukraine is not a democratic state and is not moving towards democracy fell from 21% to 7%.

Assessment of the ability to influence the actions of the authorities

Compared to 2020, the share of Ukrainian citizens who believe that the political system does not allow them to influence the government decreased from 34% to 28%. At the same time, the share of those who believe that the political system allows people like them to influence the government "definitely" or "sufficiently" also fell from 17% to 12%. Meanwhile, the number of respondents who believe that the political system in this country lets people like them influence the government only "to a certain extent" increased (the share of such respondents increased from 18% to 27%), and of those who believe that opportunities for citizens to influence the government actions do exist, but they are insufficient, also increased (from 25% to 30%).

The assessment of the ability to influence the government is related to the level of internality. Thus, those respondents who believe that the political system "definitely" allows people like them to influence the government rate their ability to influence their own lives at 7.1 points on a scale from 1 to 10 (where "1" means "no influence", "10" — "strong influence"), and of those who believe that the political system does not allow people like them to influence the actions of the government at all — only 4.9 points.

In general, citizens' assessment of their ability to influence their own lives has practically not changed over the past few years and was within the range of 5.8-6.2 points on a ten-point scale.

The share of those who consider themselves free has increased from 62% to 84%, compared to 2021.

Political values

If it is necessary to choose what is more important — freedom or equality, 75% of respondents choose freedom (in 2022, they made 71%, in 2020 — 64%).

But choosing between freedom and security, Ukrainians more often choose security (54.5%; 44% choose freedom). However, the choice in favour of security is now significantly lower than in 2020, when 66% of Ukrainians gave priority to security (even during a large-scale war in Ukraine, given that the urgency of security has increased tremendously).

When choosing between freedom and wellbeing, the choice of freedom is constantly growing among Ukrainians. While in 2010 the shares of those who preferred freedom and those who preferred wellbeing were approximately equal (32% and 30%, respectively), in May 2023 the share of the former reached 51%, and the share of the latter fell to 23%.

Assessing their political views in terms of "left-right" on a scale from 1 ("left") to 10 ("right"), on average, Ukrainians rate them at 5.8 points, which slightly differs from the situation in 2017 (5.3 points). That is, in this coordinate system, the political position of the majority of Ukrainians can most often be characterized as "centrist" (68% of respondents rated it from 4 to 7).

Vision of the country's future

Compared to 2021, the share of respondents who believe that "Ukraine will be a highly developed, democratic, influential European country" has increased significantly (from 40% to 64%). The share of those who believe that Ukraine will be a country with a special path of development (like China) has also slightly increased (from 13% to 16%).

The number of respondents for whom "Ukraine will always be a "Third World" country, undeveloped and uninfluential" decreased from 11% to 2%, of those who believe that Ukraine will be an undeveloped appendage of the West fell from 10% to 3%, of those who see Ukraine as an undeveloped appendage of Russia fell from 2 % to 0.3%, of those who suggest that Ukraine will disappear as an independent state fell from 5% to 0.7%.

Residents of the Western (75%) and Central (67%) regions believe that "Ukraine will be a highly developed, democratic, influential European country" (59% in the South, 47% in the East). In the East, a higher share of respondents than in the other regions suggests that "Ukraine will be a country with a special path of development (like China)" (22.5%, in the other regions — 14–15%).

The younger the respondents are, the more often they believe that "Ukraine will be a highly developed, democratic, influential European country" (their share increases from 55% at the age of 60 and older to 74% among young people under 30).

Readiness to defend the country

In 2011, the share of people in Ukraine who gave a positive answer regarding their readiness to defend the country made 40%; in 2020, it increased to 57%, in May 2023 — to 67%.

Readiness to defend the country is reported by the majority of residents in all regions: 61% in the East, 67% in the Centre, 68% in the West and 71% in the South of the country, 74% among men and 60.5% among women, from 68% to 75% in the age groups from 18 to 59 years, 51% — at the age of 60 and older.

"Farewell to the USSR"

In recent years, the number of Ukrainian citizens who have a negative attitude to the possible restoration of the USSR in any form has increased significantly. Compared to 2016, the share of those who said that they did not want restoration of the Soviet Union increased from 65% to 87%. The share of those who definitely would like it fell from 13% to 3.5%, and of those who answered "yes, but I understand that it is unrealistic in the present conditions" also decreased (from 22% to 9%).

Answering the question whether they wish the system like in the Soviet times to be restored now, in 2017, 63% gave a positive answer, 21% — negative; in May 2023, they made 83.5% and 5%, respectively. Only 12% of residents in the East, 5% in the Centre, 4% in the South and 0.7% of the residents in the West expressed a desire to restore the Soviet system.

Only 10% of representatives of the older generation (60+) feel nostalgia for such a system, and only 2% of those under 40 years.

While in 2013, assessing how fair Soviet society was and how fair modern Ukrainian society is on a scale from 0 to 10, where "0" means "extremely unfair" and "10" means "completely fair", the respondents rated the level of justice in the Soviet society higher than in modern Ukraine (6.2 and 4.0 points, respectively), in 2021, these ratings became approximately equal (5.1 and 5.6 points, respectively), and in 2023, the fairness of the modern Ukrainian society was rated much higher (6.7 points, the Soviet one — 3.1 points).

When choosing between two models of social development — European and Russian, 73% preferred the European model, only 0.4% — the Russian one (in 2017, these figures made 58% and 4%, respectively). The share of respondents who consider European and Russian models equally attractive also fell from 7% to 1%.

The share of supporters of the European model makes 84% in the West, 73% in the Centre, 71% in the South, and 58% in the East. The share of supporters of the Russian model is extremely low in all regions (from 0% to 1%), but in the East quite many people do not like any model (23.5%, in other regions — from 8 % to 18%).

POLL RESULTS IN TABLES

(data in the tables are percentages, unless stated otherwise)

With which of the following statements do you agree the most?

How important is it for you to live in a democratic country? When answering, use the scale from to 10, where "1" means "fully unimportant", "10" — "very important".

No answer — 0.1%

Average score — 8.3

Now, I will mention several types of political systems. Please tell me how good they are for our country, in your opinion?

How democratically do you think our country is ruled now? When answering, use the scale from to 10, where "1" means "totally undemocratically", 10 — "absolutely democratically".

No answer — 1.4%

Average score — 6.2

Do you think that Ukraine is a democratic state?

Do you think that the political system in this country lets people like you influence the government?

Some people believe that they are absolutely free in their choice and themselves determine their life, others suggest that they cannot actually influence what happens to them. Using this scale, please assess to what extent, you think, you influence your life. "1" means "No influence", "10" — "Strong influence"

No answer — 0.8%

Average score — 6.0

Do you feel free?

Most people believe that freedom and equality are both important, but if one of them is to be chosen, what do you consider more important?

Most people believe that freedom and security are both important, but if one of them is to be chosen, what do you consider more important?

Which of these judgments do you more tend to share?

They say that there are "the left" and "the right" in politics. Please, using a scale of 1 to 10, where "1" is "left" and "10" is "right", where do you think you stand on this scale?

No answer — 2.5%

Average score — 5.8

How do you see Ukraine’s future?

If such a need arises, are you ready to defend your country?

Do you want restoration of the Soviet Union?

Do you want restoration of the system like in the Soviet times?

If you evaluate modern Ukrainian society in general, to what extent do you consider it fair or unfair? Rate on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 is "extremely unfair", "10" is "completely fair" (choose one value on this scale).

On the same scale, please rate the Soviet society (that existed in the Soviet Union).

Which model of social development seems more attractive to you?

In 2011, the field stage in Ukraine was held on December 1–12 by the Research & Branding Group. The total sample of the poll consisted of 1,500 interviews (the maximum sample error was 2.6%, with a probability of 0.95 without the design effect). This sample represented the adult population of Ukraine (at the age of 18+).

In 2020, the field stage in Ukraine was held on July 21 — August 17 by the Info Sapiens company and Social Monitoring Center NGO. The total sample of the poll consisted of 1289 interviews (the maximum sample error is 2.7%, with a probability of 0.95 without the design effect). This sample represented the adult population of Ukraine (at the age of 18+), with the exception of the territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions and the Autonomous Republic of Crimea not controlled by the Ukrainian government.

With which of the following statements do you tend to agree more?

How important is it for you to live in a democratic country? When answering, use a scale from 1 to 10, where "1" means "totally unimportant" and "10" means "very important", average score

How good are these types of political systems for our country?

How democratically do you think our country is governed now? On a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 is "not at all democratic" and 10 is "very democratic", average scores

Do you think that Ukraine is a democratic country?

Do you think that the political system in our country allows people like you to influence the actions of the government?

Some people believe that they are absolutely free in their choice and themselves determine their life, others suggest that they cannot actually influence what happens to them. Using this scale, please assess to what extent, you think, you influence your life. "1" means "No influence", "10" — "Strong influence", average score

Do you feel free?

Most people believe that both freedom and equality are important, but if you had to choose between them, which do you think is more important?

Most people believe that both freedom and security are important, but if you had to choose between them, which do you think is more important?

Which of these judgments do you more tend to share?

They say that there are "the left" and "the right" in politics. Please, using a scale of 1 to 10, where "1" is "left" and "10" is "right", where do you think you stand on this scale?, average score

How do you see Ukraine’s future?

If such a need arises, are you ready to defend your country?

Do you want restoration of the Soviet Union?

Do you want restoration of the system like in the Soviet times?

If you evaluate modern Ukrainian society in general, to what extent do you think it is fair or unfair? Rate on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 is "extremely unfair" and "10" is "completely fair", average scores

On the same scale, please rate Soviet society (that which existed in the Soviet Union), average score

Which model of society development seems more attractive to you?