Central Europe May Fall Under the Influence of China After 2025

November 30, 2018

It is worth considering the scenario of the Central Europe being under the powerful economic and political influence of China after 2025, as Russia weakens its stance in Eurasian region for the benefit of China. Under this scenario Russia would act as an ice-breaker to the European unity in the strategic interests of China.

The Russian influence is gradually increasing in Central Europe due to the growing dependence of the region’s countries on energy supplies from the East. It is further facilitated by enhanced role of energy hubs in the interests of the Moscow-Berlin-Vienna triangle and construction of new energy and transport facilities in Central Europe by the Russian companies. This primarily concerns the construction of Nord Stream 2 and nuclear power plants in Hungary and Belarus, as well as the merger of German gas hubs Gazpool and NCG benefitting the Russian gas traders in the region.

If the United States make no sufficient investment in the energy security and infrastructure of the Central European countries, then this important geopolitical region may fall under China and Russia’s political influence within the next 5-10 years.

Volodymyr Omelchenko

Director, Energy Programmes


Born in 1967 in Kyiv.

Education: Kyiv Politechnic Institute, Department of Chemical Engineering (1992).

Author of over 50 scientific works and op-ed publications. Took part in development and implementation of international energy projects and scientific research in international energy policy.

Employment:

1992–1996, worked in different positions in the mechanical engineering industry;

1997–1998 — head expert of the division of oil, gas and petroleum refining industry of the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine;

1998–2003 — Naftohaz Ukrayiny National Joint-Stock Company, in charge of oil transportation section;

2004–2007 — chief consultant at the National Institute of International Security Problems of Ukraine’s NSDC;

since February, 2007 — Leading Expert, Razumkov Centre. Director since 2013.

(044) 206-85-02

omelchenko@razumkov.org.ua

volodymyr.omelchenko