Monday, 19 March 2018 10:30

Post-Election Russia: D-Day for Ukraine

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We can assume that Kremlin's policy in regard to Ukraine during Putin's next term in office will entail: a) traditional categorical refusal to review the topic of annexed Crimea in any form; b) keeping the situation in Donbas in the frozen state "neither war, nor peace" and imitating peace initiatives while asserting clearly unacceptable demands; c) preparing and creating conditions for a large-scale hybrid attack on the D-Day – the period of election campaign in Ukraine (and later, parliamentary).

There are reasons to believe that in late 2018 – early 2019, Russia will launch a campaign of integrated, targeted and large-scale measures for interfering with Ukraine's elections. As opposed to the US or France, Kremlin has a much larger and more efficient set of influence instruments in regard to Ukraine.

Obviously, the key directions of Russia's pre-election expansion will be:

  • Erosion and destabilisation of domestic political situation through persistent information sabotage and provocations. Instigating separatist sentiment in regions. Massive cyber-attacks (which already happened on numerous occasions) against key infrastructure objects, – administrative, energy, banking, transport.
  • Political, informational, financial support of pro-Russian political forces, media, civic organisations, religious structures, and individual activists. Facilitating the expansion of their presence in the information field.
  • Launching an information campaign in the Ukrainian media space, social networks aimed at discrediting Ukrainian government, country's pro-European and Euroatlantic course, domestic reforms. Implanting the "Russian World" values and meanings into social consciousness.

source

Mykhailo Pashkov

Co-director, Foreign relations and international security programmes

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Born in 1958 in Roslavl, Smolensk oblast, Russia.

Education:

Smolensk Institute of Pedagogy, Faculty of the Russian Language and Literature (1979);
Moscow Institute of Youth, Faculty of Journalism (1986);
Kyiv Institute of Political Science and Public Administration (1991).
Ph. D. in Philosophy; the author of more than 50 publications.

1979–1989 — worked at different positions in district, regional and republican newspapers in Russia and Moldova;
1991–1994 — worked in scientific institutions of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine;
1994–1998 — diplomatic service at the Embassy of Ukraine in the Russian Federation;
Since December 1999 — Razumkov Centre Leading Expert.
Diplomatic rank: First Secretary. Most recent position in state structures — Chief Consultant, Analytical Service of Ukraine's NSDC Staff.


Telephone: (+380-44) 206-85-08
E-mail: pashkov@razumkov.org.ua