The National Bank of Ukraine predicts 3-4% GDP growth in 2017 and up to 4-5% in 2019-2020.
Based on current affairs and trends, this estimate seems quite reasonable. I cannot call it too optimistic, or pessimistic. But, if you ask whether this growth is enough for Ukraine then the answer is "no."
Unfortunately, 3-4% - a level that will provide us with only faith floundering. This is the survival rate of population and business.
There is no stimulating policy - monetary, fiscal, or structural. This is an inertial development. Well, it is a good thing to have it, but it will not be sufficient to “renew” Ukraine, at least, in the next five years.
And the government has to, despite some unfavourable conditions and the overall situation, set ambitious targets, while pointing to the tools and criteria for interim changes that will help reach the level of, at least, 5-7% over the next three years.
What should be done? Unfortunately, the situation here is simple and complicated at the same time. Of course, the most important thing is to give business incentives and assurances that it will able to grow and to send a clear signal to investors.
After all, if we speak of a favourable investment climate, then there should be no sampling, no pressure on investors or frequent changes in tax and administrative law. This will allow us to open Ukraine for investors, and, then, we can hope that the capital will come to increase wages, and to change the rules of the game.
Corruption is, of course, among the problems - but everyone is tired of all the talk about it. Tangible changes are not likely to take place at all. But a policy aimed at ensuring that investors feel more confident will completely override the negative impact of any other government actions. If the policy of attracting investment will turn from words to deeds, we can expect a GDP growth to reach 5-7%.